2.1. Data and research methods
2.1.1. Data sources
Data source for the article:
• Geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological data from the Center for Geological Information and Archives (Department of Geology and Minerals of Vietnam) (DGMVN .2005; Dien T.N, et al. 2013)
• Data from landslide projects related to Son La province (Thinh et al. 2001; Yem et al. 2006)
• Documentation on hydrometeorology (IMHEN. 2016).
• Documentation on vegetation (VNIAP .2016; https://www.gso.gov.vn/)
• Landslide inventory document (http://canhbaotruotlo.vn/hientrang; WebGIS on landslides of the Project: “Investigation, assessment and warning zoning of landslides in mountainous Vietnam”. Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (VIGMR).
• Research papers of the authors from 1996 to present
2.1.2. Research Methods
There are many methods to study landslide risk. Some case studies (Carrara et al. 1991; Crozier, 1986; Cruden et al. 1996; Dietrich et al. 1995; Dikau et al. 1996; Guzzetti et al. 1999; Guzzetti et al. 2005; Hansen. 1984; Hutchimson et al. 1988; Hutchimson. 1995; Rib et al. 1978; Soeters et al. 1996; Turner et al. 1996; Varnes. 1978; Varnes. 1984). In this paper, the method of analysis of hierarchical processes (AHP) is selected to study landslides in Son La province. Analytical Hierarchy was developed by Saaty (1977); Saaty (2000). The AHP Method is incorporated into GIS-based fit criteria, and decisions are made using weights for relative pairwise comparisons without inconsistencies in the process decision. The AHP is based on three principles: analysis, comparative evaluation and synthesis of priorities (Malczewski. 1999). Concepts and techniques in AHP include complexity hierarchies, pairwise comparisons, eigenvector calculations for weighting, and relevancy considerations.
In this research, the following processing steps for the AHP method was introduced in Kayastha et al. 2013: (i) break down the dicision problem into component factors; (ii) create an order of components factors from Table 1 and assigning numeric value for each component factor; (iii) compare each pair-wise component factor and evaluate the importannce. (iv) construct a comparison matrix; (v) computation of the normalized principal eigenvector, which gives the weight of each factor; (vi) checking the consistency of the comparison using the consistency index (CI).
Saaty (1980) applied Equation (1), to determine (RI) in Table 2. In which the CR < 0.1 will be accepted.
Where:
- LSI: Landslide hazard index.
- Wj: The weighted value of the parameter j
- wij: The weight value of class i belongs to the jth factor causing the landslide
- n: Number of factors causing landslides in the study area
Where the Wj values and the wj ratio values are determined based on the pairwise comparisons matrix.
Accordingly, the input parameters for us to study landslides in Son La province include 09 factors (j=9): Slope; Lithology; Rainfall distribution; Vegetation cover; Fault density; River density; Deep cleavage density; Aspect; Distance to roads.
The input parameters are processed and displayed as raster maps in GIS with a resolution of 30 x 30m for the 01-pixel image. Map of landslide hazard zoning in Son La province is based on different LSI values. The process is displayed in figure 2.
2.2. Input Parameters
The input parameters for AHP processing are 9 layers of maps of other landslide triggers. Four map layers, including slope, aspect, river density, and deep cleavage density were generated from the DEM (figure 3) has a resolution of 30 x30m, This data is downloaded from NASA’ website (NASA, 2015) (https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov).
2.2.1. Slope map
The slope map of Son La province was generated from DEM, using the SLOPE module available in ArcGIS 10.0 software (ArcGIS Manual, 2015). Based on the natural topographical characteristics of the province, the Son La slope map is classified into 6 layers: 0-3o, 3-8o, 8-15o, 15-25o, 25-45o and >45o (Figure 4a).
2.2.2. Aspect map
The aspect map of the study area was extracted from the DEM, based on the Aspect module available in ArcGIS 10.0 software (ArcGIS Manual, 2015) (Figure 4b).
2.2.3. River density map
The river density map layer is extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM), using the flow density method. Therefore, the river density map layer represents the density of rivers and streams per unit area (km/km2), in which the higher the density value, the better the ability to conduct water along the tributaries over a certain area. the better. Based on the natural topography of Son La province, the river density map of Son La province is classified into 4 layers ( Figure 4c)
2.2.4. Deep cleavage density map
The deeply dissected density map layer is extracted from the DEM, representing the difference in terrain elevation per unit area (m/km2). Therefore, the larger the value of the depth of cleavage density, the larger the topographic elevation difference in that area. Based on the natural topography of Son La province, the deep dissection density map of Son La is classified into 5 layers (Figure 4d).
2.2.5. Vegetation cover map
The vegetation cover map of Son La province was provided by the Vietnam National Institute of Agricultural Planning (VNIAP, 2016). The map was built as a shapefile by ArcGIS software (Figure 4e).
2.2.6. Fault density map
The fault density is defined as the total length of faults over an area (km/km2). The fault density map of Son La province was classified into five classes (km/km2) (Figure 4f).
2.2.7. Lithology
In the area of Son La province, there are 44 stratigraphic units and 15 magmatic complexes which belong to 7 structural zones: Tu Le, Phan Si Pang, Song Da, Nam Co, Song Ma, Sam Nua, and Dien Bien (Dien et al. 2013). According to the origin and degree of weathering, we divided the rocks of Son La province into the 9 following groups (figure 4g):
- Quaternary sedimentary rock group (Q): including silt, clay, sand, gravel, etc. The total area is 177 km2 which accounts for about 1.22% of Son La province.
- Group of terrigenous deposit and metamorphic rocks rich in alumosilicate: including shale, claystone, siltstone, sandstone, grit, congromerate etc. The total area is 1867 km2, which accounts for about 13.25% of Son La province.
- Group of extrusive acid-intermediate rocks and their tuffs: including ryolite, porphyritic ryolite, trachyte, porphyritic trachyte, felsite, rhyolite tuff, dacitic tuff. The total area is 4105 km2, which accounts for for about 28.28% of Son La province.
- Group of extrusive mafic rocks and their tuffs: including basalt, porphyritic basalt, basaltic komatiite, basaltic tuff, etc. The total area is 1006 km2, which accounts for about 7.14% of Son La province.
- Group of felsic-ulramafic intrusive: including gabbro, gabbroolivine, gabbrodiabase, dunite, peridotite, serpentinite, serpentinite- apoharzburgit. The total area is 56 km2, which accounts for about 0.4% of Son La province.
- Group of metamorphic rocks and terrigenous deposits rich in Quartz: including granite, syenite, grano-syenite, biotite granite, granodiorite, granite 2 mica, plagiogranite, gabrrodiorite, diorite, ect. The total area is 1119 km2, which accounts for about 8.0% of Son La province.
- Group of metamorphic rocks rich in alumosilicate: including quartz-sericite schist, quartz mica schist, silicate schist, biotite gneiss, granitic gneiss, biotic-amphibole. The total area is 1739 km2, which accounts for about 12.33% of Son La province.
- Group of terrigenous deposits rocks and extrusive rich in alumosilicate: including quartzite, quartz sandstone, silicate schist. The total area is 1180 km2, which accounts for about 8.32% of Son La province.
- Carbonate rock group: including limestone, dolomite, marble. The total area is 2876 km2, which accounts for about 21.06% of Son La province.
2.2.8. Human factors
Some human activities that increase the likelihood of landslides are also taken into account. It's road construction. We chose the road factor because it strongly influences the landslide process. the "buffer calculation" algorithm in ArcGIS software helped us build the Map of distance to roads, see figure 4h.
2.2.9. Rainfall map
The climate change scenario is integrated into the model of establishment of the landslide risk map through the maximum daily rainfall scenarios for 2025 and 2050 extracted from RCP 4.5. The predicted maximum daily rainfall maps of Son La province in 2025 and 2050 are shown in figures 4i and 4k respectively.