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Research article
Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7381-5305
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: To inform researchers about the methodology and results of epidemic estimation studies performed for COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, we aimed to perform a rapid review.
Methods: We searched for and included published articles, preprint manuscripts and reports that estimated numbers of cumulative or daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 in Iran. We found 131 studies and included 29 of them.
Results: The included studies provided outputs for a total of 84 study-model/scenario combinations. Sixteen studies used 3-4 compartmental disease models. At the end of month two of the epidemic (2020-04-19), the lowest (and highest) values of predictions were 1777 (388951) for cumulative deaths, 20588 (2310161) for cumulative cases, and at the end of month four (2020-06-20), were 3590 (1819392) for cumulative deaths, and 144305 (4266964) for cumulative cases. Highest estimates of cumulative deaths (and cases) for latest date available in 2020 were 418834 on 2020-12-19 (and 41475792 on 2020-12-31). Model estimates predict an ominous course of epidemic progress in Iran. Increase in percent population using masks from the current situation to 95% might prevent 26790 additional deaths (95% confidence interval 19925-35208) by the end of year 2020.
Conclusions: Meticulousness and degree of details reported for disease modeling and statistical methods used in the included studies varied widely. Greater heterogeneity was observed regarding the results of predicted outcomes. Consideration of minimum and preferred reporting items in epidemic estimation studies might better inform future revisions of the available models and new models to be developed. Not accounting for under-reporting drives the models’ results misleading.
Keywords
COVID-19, Epidemic, Pandemic, Iran, Cases, Deaths, Model, Prediction, Estimation
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CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 2
Posted 11 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 25 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 25 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 25 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 22 Sep, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 17 Sep, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 06 Sep, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 13 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 20 Jul, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 11 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 08 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 05 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jun, 2020
First submitted
On 22 May, 2020
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This preprint is under consideration at BMC Public Health. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7381-5305
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 2
Posted 11 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 25 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 25 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 25 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 22 Sep, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 17 Sep, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 06 Sep, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 13 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 20 Jul, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 11 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 08 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 05 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jun, 2020
First submitted
On 22 May, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: To inform researchers about the methodology and results of epidemic estimation studies performed for COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, we aimed to perform a rapid review.
Methods: We searched for and included published articles, preprint manuscripts and reports that estimated numbers of cumulative or daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 in Iran. We found 131 studies and included 29 of them.
Results: The included studies provided outputs for a total of 84 study-model/scenario combinations. Sixteen studies used 3-4 compartmental disease models. At the end of month two of the epidemic (2020-04-19), the lowest (and highest) values of predictions were 1777 (388951) for cumulative deaths, 20588 (2310161) for cumulative cases, and at the end of month four (2020-06-20), were 3590 (1819392) for cumulative deaths, and 144305 (4266964) for cumulative cases. Highest estimates of cumulative deaths (and cases) for latest date available in 2020 were 418834 on 2020-12-19 (and 41475792 on 2020-12-31). Model estimates predict an ominous course of epidemic progress in Iran. Increase in percent population using masks from the current situation to 95% might prevent 26790 additional deaths (95% confidence interval 19925-35208) by the end of year 2020.
Conclusions: Meticulousness and degree of details reported for disease modeling and statistical methods used in the included studies varied widely. Greater heterogeneity was observed regarding the results of predicted outcomes. Consideration of minimum and preferred reporting items in epidemic estimation studies might better inform future revisions of the available models and new models to be developed. Not accounting for under-reporting drives the models’ results misleading.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5