Professional mobility of young graduates in Côte d'Ivoire: characterization and analysis of the determinants

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3144024/v1

The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the professional mobility of young graduates employed in Côte d'Ivoire. Data from the skills-employment mismatch survey carried out by the Microeconomic Research Centre for Development (CREMIDE) in 2017 with funding from the French Development Agency (AFD) served as a framework for analysis. The probit model with selection made it possible to highlight major determinants of the occupational mobility of young employees. This model corrects for possible endogeneity bias. Thus, the salary, the degree level, the size of the company, the number of years of experience represent the main determinants of the professional mobility of the employees in Côte d’Ivoire.

Jel classification : J24, J60, J81

Professional mobility

young employees

graduates

mismatch

Faced with uncertainty and asymmetry of information on the labor market, young employees frequently change jobs (Jin, 2013). This phenomenon leads to an imbalance in the labor market remains a major challenge for policy makers given the related social blows (Jochen, et al., 2019). Indeed, professional mobility engenders instability and professional insecurity and can be a source of impoverishment among young people. Thus, like most countries faced with job insecurity among young people, policies for the professional integration of these young people are developed and implemented. Unfortunately, all these policies do not always achieve the expected objectives. For example, the survey on the integration of technical education and vocational training graduates showed that only 14.43% of graduates, eight months after leaving the education system, were integrated into the labor market (DAIP, 2017). These young people, given the difficulties of integration, are very often tempted to engage in any form of income-generating activity. However, these graduates, once employed, will be inclined to change activities and companies when better opportunities present themselves to them (Sennett and Morin, 2000). Work on the professional mobility of young employees therefore remains important on the one hand for decision-makers concerned with the well-being of young people, the future of any nation, and on the other hand for job seekers whose return on their education is dwindling. as they transition into unsuitable jobs.

In general, young graduates accept their first job by continuing to prospect to find one that matches their skills. In Côte d'Ivoire, in the labor market, there is a worsening of skills-employment mismatch (Kouakou and Yapo, 2019). This mismatch could appear to be a cause of the professional mobility of young employees. On this topical issue, the determinants of professional mobility can be grouped into different categories depending on whether they relate to the individual strategies of employees, job satisfaction, the difficulty of the job (Becker, 1962; Rosen, 1974; Jovanovic, 1979; Carlos and Kaas, 2015; Mariya, 2018; Vilda and Zaneta, 2018; etc). In addition, some companies implement stabilizing employment management policies (Doeringer and Piore, 1971). These policies create an internal market which is governed by stable rules and makes it possible to determine all positions, salaries, and opportunities for movement (Amossé et al. 2011). This segmentation of the labor market shows that mobility will be stronger in the secondary segment compared to the primary segment.

Upon analysis, studies on the professional mobility of young employees are scarce in Côte d'Ivoire. There are several reasons including the nature of the data. In addition, most studies use panels with qualitative variable models (Balsan et al. 1996). However, the data necessary for these types of analysis are rare in Côte d'Ivoire. However, increasingly with the involvement of research centers in the surveys, it is possible to use certain analyzes to understand the explanatory factors of the professional mobility of young employees. The general objective of this study is to analyze the explanatory factors of the professional mobility of young salaried graduates on the labor market in Côte d'Ivoire. The rest of this article is structured around the methodology, the results, and the conclusion.

2.1. Theoretical specification

The theoretical framework of our analysis is based on that of job shopping to explain the professional mobility of young graduates employed on the labor market (William, 1978). This theory refers to the period when workers gain work experience with consequent high rates of mobility, usually early in working life. The employee faces uncertainty about the returns available for different jobs.

That is.

$${E}_{ij}={a}_{ij}+{b}_{ij}{\theta }_{j}+{u}_{ij}$$

1

With ${E}_{ij}$: the return on the job $j$held by the graduate $i$. ${\theta }_{j}$ is the unknown component (general for all jobs) for graduates. ${u}_{ij}$ is the unknown dimension of the $j$ graduate's job-specific performance $i$, ${a}_{ij}$, the average output of the job and ${b}_{ij}$, the reward of the employee's general ability.

Note that the distributions of $\theta$ and $u$ in the sample are assumed to be normal and independent.

The salaried graduate has two reasons for changing jobs when he discovers the return on his work. First, he may have a particular job that does not match his training. It may then underestimate the specific output of the job $j$. Then, the salaried graduate can have the feeling of knowing his general capacities in all jobs. In this case, he chooses the job according to his abilities. These two scenarios reflect a process of mobility of young graduates employed. Nevertheless, let us consider that the employment of the salaried graduate is inappropriate with his training. Let us also consider that by accepting this job, he acquires professional experience in the first period. He will change jobs at the end of the first period if his expected earnings in the second job (E ₂) are greater than his current earnings (E ₁).

That is:

$$E\left\{{E}_{2}|{E}_{1}\right\}>{E}_{1}$$

2

Given $\theta$, we have: $E\left\{{E}_{2}|{E}_{1}\right\}\ne E\left\{{E}_{2}\right\}$. Indeed, the information obtained from the first job helps to predict the earnings of the second. Thus, the hypothesis of independence of $\theta$ and ${u}_{i}$, allow to write:

$$E\left\{\theta |{E}_{1}\right\}=\beta \left({E}_{1}-{\alpha }_{1}\right)$$

3

Starting from equations (1) and (2), the expected earnings in the second job in line with the training of employed graduates are given by:

$$E\left\{{E}_{2}|{E}_{1}\right\}={b}_{2}\beta \left({E}_{1}-{\alpha }_{1}\right)+{\alpha }_{2}$$

4

Where ${\alpha }_{1}$ and ${\alpha }_{2}$ represent, respectively, the average income from employment 1 and 2

By combining (2) and (4), the employed graduate will choose to change jobs if:

$$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{E}_{1}>\frac{\beta {b}_{2}{\alpha }_{1}-{\alpha }_{2}}{\beta {b}_{2}-1} , \beta {b}_{2}>1\\ {E}_{1}>\frac{\beta {b}_{2}{\alpha }_{1}-{\alpha }_{2}}{\beta {b}_{2}-1}, \beta {b}_{2}<1\end{array}\right.$$

5

Equation 5 shows that the salaried graduate changes jobs in both cases. He will be indifferent if $\beta {b}_{2}=1$.

One explanation for Eq. 5 is that, regardless of the return from job 1 that is mismatched with training (skill), the graduate employee prefers to change jobs.

2.2. Empirical specification

Within the framework of this analysis, professional mobility is observed only if the employee holds a job that does not match his skills. So, in this paper, we estimate a probit with selection (Van and Van, 1981).

That is:

The latent equation

$${M}_{i}^{*}={\beta }^{{\prime }}{x}_{i}+{\mu }_{1i}$$

6

with $\beta$ a (K x 1) vector of unknown parameters; ${x}_{i}$ a (K x 1) vector of the exogenous values for observation i: Sex, Socio-professional experience, size of the company, Type of Contract, Professional training, Socio-Professional Category, Degree level, salary; and${\mu }_{1i}\sim\left(0,{\sigma }_{1}^{2}\right)$

The probit equation

$${M}_{i}^{probit}=1 if {M}_{i}^{*}\ge 0$$

$${M}_{i}^{probit}=0 if {M}_{i}^{*}<0$$

$$\left({M}_{i}^{probit}=1/{x}_{i}\right)=P\left({\beta }^{{\prime }}{x}_{i}+{\mu }_{1i}\right)$$

7

Where ${M}_{i}$represents the individual $i$ who changes jobs.

The Selection Equation

Note that the variable ${M}_{i}^{probit}$is observed only if${M}_{i}^{select}=1$

$${M}_{i}^{select}=1 \text{i}\text{f} {EI}_{i}\ge 0$$

$${M}_{i}^{select}=0 if {EI}_{i}<0$$

$${EI}_{i}={\gamma }^{{\prime }}{Z}_{i}+{\mu }_{2i}$$

8

Where ${I}_{i}$ represents the individual $i$ who holds a job that does not match his skills.

2.3. Data and variables

This study uses primary data from the survey on the skills-employment mismatch carried out by (CREMIDE) in 2017 with the financial support of the French Development Agency and those from the survey " Improving employment policies young people in French-speaking Africa” with the financial support of the Center for Research and International Development. The objective of these two surveys carried out over the same period is, on the one hand, to highlight the determinants of the skills-employment mismatch and, on the other hand, to evaluate the active employment policies for young people in Côte d' Ivory. The two surveys focused on holders of diplomas that could give direct access to the labor market. In both surveys, the question, "Have you changed jobs?" » made it possible to constitute a sample of 2061 graduates. Furthermore, to consider the mismatch between skills and employment, the question “was your diploma necessary to access the current job” was used to generate a variable of interest.

Table A1 in the appendix shows that 67.39% of salaried graduates change jobs. These jobs are mostly unsuited to their training. It should be noted that these salaried graduates generally have two years of university study (57.06%).

Characterization of the professional mobility of young graduates

As shown in Table 1, graduates change jobs. This mobility affects more those with two years of university study (60.26%) compared to other levels where the mobility rate is low (Master, 09.29%, Engineer, 10.01%, Bachelor, 10.37%). In addition, the most mobile salaried graduates are those who did not do any other training at the end of their studies (66.31%).

Table 1. Level of diploma and training of employees and professional mobility

Employee mobility	Masters	Engineering degree	Bachelor	Two years of university	Yes	No
Job change	09.29	10.08	10.37		33.69	66.31
Don't change jobs	90.71	89.92	89.63		66.31	33.69
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00		100.00	100.00

Source: authors based on data from the skills-employment mismatch survey (CREMIDE, 2017) and Improving youth employment policies in French-speaking Africa (CERDI, 2017)

On the econometric level, the Wald test makes it possible to highlight the independence between the two decisions. The rejection of the null hypothesis indicates that the two decisions are not made independently of each other. Moreover, the Wald statistic is significant (Table A1). Thus, the model seems well specified. On the other hand, the null hypothesis that all the coefficients are equal to zero is rejected. In addition, the sample is composed of 2061 individuals as expected. In addition, the decisions to change employment if it is not suited to the skills of the employed graduate are taken jointly. So, there is a selection problem.

The determinants of the professional mobility of young employees

The results show that when there is an increase in salary, the probability of changing jobs decreases by 0.15 (Table 2). Indeed, considering the imperfection of information on the labor market, employees avoid bearing costs related to the search for a new job following a change in salary (Jin, 2013). In addition, at the start of a career, the probability of changing jobs decreases. However, when the number of years of experience increases, the chances of professional mobility of graduates increase significantly (0.08). This result may be counter-intuitive and shows that the relationship between professional mobility and seniority is sometimes complex. Indeed, some graduates anticipate the fact that too long seniority will be interpreted as less adaptability (Duhautois, et al. 2012).

The results also show that compared to graduates with a master’s or doctorate level, the probability of changing jobs decreases (-0.08) when the employee holds a bachelor’s degree. Indeed, the most educated workers tend to change jobs and companies given their ability to adapt (Damba, 2014). Moreover, by considering the socio-professional category, we observe that workers tend to change companies. The idea is that the latter, because of their level of qualification, experience instability within companies. We also note that employees without contracts or with a verbal contract are inclined to be more mobile. Indeed, their status obliges them to change companies several times a year because in general, they are in precarious jobs.

Table 2. Marginal effects of the determinants of professional mobility of young, employed graduates

*Variables*	*dy/dx*	*Standard. Err*	z	*P>\|z\|*	*[95% Conf. Range]*
Sex
Man	0.0170666	0.0231146	0.74	0.460	-0.0282371 0.0623704
Socio-professional experience
Year experience	-0.171485	0.0556564	-3.08	0.002	-0.2805695 -0.0624004
Year experience squared	0.0735618	0.0232506	3.16	0.002	0.0279914 0.119132
size of the company
Small	0.0003596	0.0288459	0.01	0.990	-0.0561774 0.0568965
Mean	-0.0093022	0.0375686	-0.25	0.804	-0.0829353 0.0643309
Type of Contract
Indefinite-Term Contract	-0.0348939	0.0262133	-1.33	0.183	-0.0862711 0.0164833
OTHER	0.0634568	0.0314795	2.02	0.044	0.0017581 0.1251555
Professional training
Information	-0.0310775	0.0211777	-1.47	0.142	-0.0725851 0.0104301
Socio-Professional Category
Worker	0.073411	0.0261727	2.80	0.005	0.0221144 0.1247094
Others	-0.01732	0.0395886	-0.44	0.662	-0.0949122 0.0602722
Degree level
Deug/Dues	-0.0076244	0.0349528	-0.22	0.827	-0.0761307 0.0608819
Bachelor	-0.0818635	0.034444	-2.38	0.017	-0.1493724 -0.0143546
Salary	-0.1474643	0.0268729	-5.49	0.000	-0.2001342 -0.0947944

Source: authors based on data from the skills-employment mismatch survey (CREMIDE, 2017) and Improving youth employment policies in French-speaking Africa (CERDI, 2017)

Effect of the mismatch-skills-job on the professional mobility of employees

Employees change jobs if they do not match their skills (Table 4). In fact, at the start of a career, when the job occupied is unsuited to the training, the probability of leaving one's position for another decreases but then increases as the number of years of experience increases. increases. It should also be noted that workers whose jobs do not match their skills are inclined to change jobs. Which is not the case for a university graduate who has a great capacity for adaptation. Otherwise, they are in the primary segment with salaries above the market (Kumaş et al. 2014).

Table 3. Marginal effects of employment mismatch on the professional mobility of young employees

*Variables*	*dy/dx*	*Standard. Err*	z	*P>\|z\|*	*[95% Conf. Range]*
Sex
Man	0.0401654	0.0303045	1.33	0.185	-0.0192304 0.0995612
Socio-professional experience
Year experience	-0.2450227	0.0935526	-2.62	0.009	-0.4283824 -0.0616629
Year experience squared	0.1444279	0.0439264	3.29	0.001	0.0583338 0.230522
size of the company
Small	-0.0180254	0.0376286	-0.48	0.632	-0.091776 0.0557252
Mean	-0.0888852	0.0447249	-1.99	0.047	-0.1765444 -0.0012261
Type of Contract
Indefinite-Term Contract	-0.0292626	0.0325784	-0.90	0.369	-0.093115 0.0345898
Other	0.0040569	0.0371702	0.11	0.913	-0.0687954 0.0769091
Professional training
Information	-0.0471827	0.0273541	-1.72	0.085	-0.1007956 0.0064303
Socio-Professional Category
Worker	0.1209571	0.0303349	3.99	0.000	0.0615018 0.1804124
Others	0.0031831	0.0473713	0.07	0.946	-0.0896629 0.0960291
Degree level
Deug/Dues	-0.1189455	0.0420624	-2.83	0.005	-0.2013863 -0.036504
Bachelor	-0.1344825	0.0495042	-2.72	0.007	-0.2315089 -0.037456
Salary	-0.1402259	0.0299122	-4.69	0.000	-0.1988527 -0.081599

Source: authors based on data from the skills-employment mismatch survey (CREMIDE, 2017) and Improving youth employment policies in French-speaking Africa (CERDI, 2017)

This study aimed to highlight the determinants of the professional mobility of young graduates in Côte d'Ivoire. Several econometric results were obtained from a probit model with selection. Thus, factors that significantly explain the mobility of young graduates on the labor market in Côte d'Ivoire: salary, level of diploma, and mismatch-skills-employment. It should also be noted that this study showed that at the start of their career, employees tend not to change jobs. It is therefore important for decision-makers to implement appropriate policies aimed at promoting jobs in the labor market. The mobility of salaried graduates is a negative signal on the labor market in Côte d'Ivoire. It should be perceived as positive, especially since it allows graduates to show their ability to adapt, to innovate, to take more risks. Therefore, policies must encourage the reinforcement of the training system so that students acquire experience while being in school.

It should also be noted that employees are less inclined to change jobs when wages increase. In other words, they are looking for better opportunities. This suggests that jobs are sometimes precarious. This job insecurity is one of the real problems of young workers. At this level, we must consider their exit from this situation. One of the strategies is the introduction of a professional integration contract for employees. This is for the State of Côte d'Ivoire to grant a bonus of a fixed amount to companies that recruit young people for permanent employment.

Availability of data and materials

The article uses confidential data from the Centre de Recherche Microéconomique de Développement. These data can be obtained on request.

Competing interests

No potential competing interests was reported by the author.

Funding

There is no funding to report.

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank the anonymous readers of the Observatoire de la Francophonie Economique (OFE) who took part in the first conference in Dakar in 2019, and Professor Brahim Boudarbat, who was the Director of the OFE, for the invaluable advice they gave us. Special thanks to the Centre de Recherche Microéconomique de Developpement of the Université Félix Houphouet Boigny and the Agence Française de Developpement for making the data available.

Author contribution

Edouard Pokou Abou

This author was a contributor to the writing of the article. He was also involved in the conceptualization of the methodology and the interpretation of the estimation results.

Kouadio clement Kouakou

He wrote the problem statement for the article and highlighted the policy recommendations. He helped conceptualise the methodology and proofread the document.

Hilaire Wapoh

His contribution involved processing the data and proofreading the document. He also helped interpret the results.

Bertrand Assi

Data processing is its contribution

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Annexes.docx

Professional mobility of young graduates in Côte d'Ivoire: characterization and analysis of the determinants

Status:

Version 1

Abstract

1. Introduction and background

2. Methodology

2.1. Theoretical specification

2.2. Empirical specification

2.3. Data and variables

3. Results

4. Conclusion

Declarations

References

Supplementary Files

Status:

Version 1