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Research Article
Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions
Benjamin J. Cowling
The University of Hong Kong
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-7154
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
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Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.
Keywords
SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, serial interval, transmission, control, public health
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions
Benjamin J. Cowling
The University of Hong Kong
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-7154
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 01 Jun, 2020
Published
On 21 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Epidemiology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version here.
Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3