In establishing the effect of each proxy variable for bank performance, a number of tests were conducted to ascertain the suitable model to use in analysing debt capita and risks and their implications for the performance of Ghanaian banks.
Table 2
Panel Regression Results- RAROE
|
|
FIXED EFFECTS
|
|
RANDOM EFFECTS
|
VAR
|
Coeff
|
Std.Error
|
t-stats
|
P>|t|
|
Coeff
|
Std.Error
|
z-stats
|
P>|z|
|
CAP
|
0.6410
|
3.205
|
0.20
|
0.020
|
-1.4117
|
3.208
|
-0.44
|
0.656
|
LRISK
|
-0.2938
|
1.049
|
-0.28
|
0.078
|
-1.6241
|
1.055
|
-1.54
|
0.122
|
CRISK
|
0.2276
|
0.065
|
3.52
|
0.001
|
2.4988
|
0.922
|
2.71
|
0.007
|
BSIZE
|
0.1988
|
0.131
|
1.51
|
0.038
|
0.0095
|
0.106
|
0.09
|
0.925
|
FRISK
|
0.1893
|
0.132
|
1.43
|
0.061
|
0.2841
|
0.130
|
2.18
|
0.029
|
CONT
|
3.3555
|
1.497
|
2.24
|
0.153
|
4.9459
|
1.355
|
3.65
|
0.000
|
|
R-sq:
|
|
|
|
R-sq:
|
|
|
|
|
Within
|
0.3418
|
|
|
Within
|
0.283
|
|
|
|
Between
|
0.0132
|
|
|
Between
|
0.644
|
|
|
|
Overall
|
0.2242
|
|
|
Overall
|
0.298
|
|
|
|
F (6 48)
|
4.26
|
|
|
Wald ch2
|
23.74
|
|
|
|
Prob > F
|
0.0011
|
|
|
Prob > ch2
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
N
|
209
|
|
|
N
|
209
|
|
|
Source: Author’s Construct (2023)
RAROA (Risk Adjusted Return on Assets), RAROE (Risk Adjusted Return on Equity), B-SIZE (Bank Size), F-RISK (Funding Risk), LRISK (Liquidity Risk), CRISK (Credit Risk).
*10% significance
**5% significance
***1% significance
A panel regression analysis was estimated using the fixed effects model. In arriving at the fixed effects model as the suitable model for analysis, the Hausman Test was run in which the null hypothesis (which prefers to the random effects model) was rejected. The Hausman Test results (see Table 3) showed a p – value of 0.0248 being less than the alpha value of 0.05. This informed the rejection of the null hypothesis and therefore the fixed effects model was chosen as the appropriate model for analysis under the RAROE as the dependent variable (see Table 3). The \({ R}^{2}\)under the fixed effects model for bank performance measurement is about 22 percent, signifying a weak fit. It however means that the regressor variables combined in this model explain about 22 percent of variance in bank profitability determinants. The study’s F-statistics stands at 4.26 at less than one percent significant level.
Table 3
Hausman Test: Model 1-Risk Adjusted Return on Equity
|
Coefficients
|
|
(b)
|
(B)
|
(b-B)
|
sqrt (diag (V_b-V_B))
|
|
Fixed
|
Random
|
Difference
|
S.E
|
CAP
|
0.6410
|
-1.4117
|
2.0527
|
0.470839
|
LRISK
|
-0.2938
|
-1.6241
|
1.3303
|
0.134285
|
CRISK
|
0.2276
|
2.4988
|
-2.2712
|
-
|
BSIZE
|
0.1988
|
0.0095
|
0.1893
|
0.084669
|
FRISK
|
0.1893
|
0.2841
|
-0.0948
|
0.024624
|
b = consistent under \({H}_{0}\) and \({ H}_{a}\) ; obtained from xtreg
B = inconsistent under\({ H}_{a}\), efficient under \({H}_{0}\) ; obtained from xtreg
Test: \({H}_{0}\) : difference in coefficient not systematic
\({ chi}^{2}\) (5) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B) ^ (-1)] (b-B)
= 14.58
Prob>\({ chi}^{2}\) = 0.0248
(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)
4.1. Bank Capital Adequacy and Risk Adjusted Return on Equity
Bank capital adequacy showed a statistically significant positive link with bank profitability as measured by RAROE (see Table 2) using the fixed effects model. This result is directly supported by that of Ozili (2017), that adequate bank capital correlates favourably with bank profitability. This stems from the fact that buffer capital saves the firm from unexpected external shocks and also from bad trading periods that rake in losses. Again, Abbas, et al (2019) examined ban capital effects among others on firm profitability of US and Asian banks and showed that capital has a significant positive impact on profitability.
4.2. Bank Liquidity and Risk Adjusted Return on Equity
Liquidity Risk was found to have a negative connection with an average bank performance in Table 2, where RAROE acts as a proxy for bank profitability. In most cases, banks strive to reduce the occurrence of insolvency by maintaining a minimum required level of liquid assets to fulfill creditors' maturing leverage. Under this variable, the study sought to determine the optimum amount of liquidity that an average bank in Ghana's banking system should maintain in order to meet the payback obligations of borrowed funds. Whether investing these borrowed funds for interest-bearing investments or keeping these funds on average to meet maturing debts as soon as possible. Fortunately, the study result of Abbas et al (2019) corroborates this negative relationship of liquidity risk with bank profitability. Impliedly, borrowed funds should be invested into interest earning assets to rake in returns. By elongation, leverage is negatively related with bank profitability.
In contrast, Hongli et al. (2019) in Ghana found that liquidity has a considerable positive impact on return on equity (ROE), a performance proxy, in their study on the impact of liquidity and financial leverage on company performance. In order to prevent insolvency soon, the study advised management to reduce the usage of debt financing and instead use more of their retained earnings for their operations. In contrast to the findings in Table 2, their analysis showed a positive correlation between financial leverage and bank performance.
4.3. Credit Risk and RAROE
The focus here is on credit risk as proxy for leverage and as an accounting-based measure. There is a statistically positive relationship between bank credit risk and bank profitability (see Table 2). By implication, financial leverage positively affects bank performance in the form of bank profitability as gauged by RAROE. If a bank has a leverage ratio of 3% then if credit rises by one percentage point, the value of equity will rise by about 3-percentage points. Vindicating the position of this paper, Tarus et al (2012) Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga (1999) and Valverde and RodrigueS-Fernandez (2007) all established a positive relationship between revealed direct links between credit risk and profitability.
Table 4
Panel Regression Analysis-RAROA
|
|
FIXED EFFECTS
|
|
|
RANDOM EFFECTS
|
VAR
|
Coeff
|
Std.Error
|
t-stats
|
P>|t|
|
Coeff
|
Std.
Error
|
z-stata
|
P>|z|
|
CAP
|
3.8904
|
3.633
|
1.07
|
0.290
|
2.0881
|
4.03
|
0.52
|
0.065
|
LRISK
|
0.4197
|
1.200
|
0.34
|
0.734
|
-0.3811
|
1.29
|
-0.34
|
0.067
|
CRISK
|
-0.6553
|
1.038
|
-0.63
|
0.531
|
-1.0271
|
1.19
|
-0.86
|
0.003
|
BSIZE
|
-0.1130
|
0.149
|
0.76
|
0.452
|
0.2448
|
0.18
|
1.37
|
0.140
|
FRISK
|
0.0002
|
0.150
|
0.00
|
0.999
|
0.0233
|
0.16
|
0.14
|
0.000
|
CONT
|
4.6877
|
1.694
|
2.77
|
0.008
|
6.0877
|
1.67
|
3.66
|
0.000
|
|
R-sq:
|
|
|
|
R-sq:
|
|
|
|
|
Within
|
0.1617
|
|
|
Within
|
0.1493
|
|
|
|
Between
|
0.4636
|
|
|
Between
|
0.6389
|
|
|
|
Overall
|
0.2168
|
|
|
Overall
|
0.2115
|
|
|
|
F (6 48)
|
1.54
|
|
|
Wald ch2
|
15.93
|
|
|
|
Prob > F
|
0.1745
|
|
|
Prob > ch2
|
0.024
|
|
|
|
N
|
209
|
|
|
N
|
209
|
|
|
Source: Author’s Construct (2022)
RAROA (Risk Adjusted Return on Assets), RAROE (Risk Adjusted Return on Equity), B-SIZE (Bank Size), F-RISK (Funding Risk), LRISK (Liquidity Risk), CRISK (Credit Risk).
*10% significance
**5% significance
***1% significance
Table 5
HAUSMAN TEST: MODEL 2-RAROA
|
Coefficients
|
|
(b)
|
(B)
|
(b-B)
|
sqrt (diag (V_b-V_B))
|
|
Fixed
|
Random
|
Difference
|
S.E
|
CAP
|
3.8904
|
2.0881
|
1.8023
|
1.911566
|
LRISK
|
0.4197
|
-0.3811
|
0.8008
|
0.662909
|
CRISK
|
-0.6553
|
-1.0271
|
0.3718
|
0.535591
|
BSIZE
|
-0.1130
|
-0.2448
|
-0.3578
|
0.127794
|
FRISK
|
0.0002
|
0.0232
|
-0.0231
|
0.086510
|
Source: Author’s Construct (2022)
b = consistent under \({H}_{0}\) and \({ H}_{a}\) ; obtained from xtreg
B = inconsistent under\({ H}_{a}\), efficient under \({H}_{0}\) ; obtained from xtreg
Test: \({H}_{0}\) : difference in coefficient not systematic
\({ chi}^{2}\) (5) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B) ^ (-1)] (b-B)
= 1.406
Prob>\({ chi}^{2}\) = 0.9566
(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)
RAROA was one of the proxies used to gauge bank profitability. R-square is around 22%, indicating that just 22% of the variability in the studied variables affects bank performance. This suggests that a 22% change in RAROA will result from a unit change in each explanatory variable. The information provided by the explanatory factors is statistically significant and superior to what the basic mean would provide given the p-value of 0.05. The null hypothesis, which favours the use of a random effects model, was not rejected because the Hausman Test demonstrates that the alpha value (0.05) is far lesser than that established by the test (see Table 5: Prob>\({ chi}^{2}\) = 0.9566), As a result, the random effects model was chosen for RAROA analysis.
4.4. Capital and Profitability
The reported estimates show that except capital adequacy which has a positive relationship with profitability, the other two core independent variables (CRISK & LRISK) have negative significant impacts on profitability. The CAP-profitability relationship explains one economic implication; the usage of more leverage for bank commercial activities pays better than solely relying on owner equity. So, with a cautioned increase in leverage, there is an improvement in bank profitability. Ozili (2017) that regulatory bank capital cushioned by leverage positively relates to commercial bank profitability. This is directly in tandem with findings on Table 4. But a study in Ghana by Gatsi and Akoto (2010) observed that debt has a significant negative effect on profitability.
4.5. Liquidity and Profitability
With emphasis now on liquidity risk, the significance of reducing the incidence of bank insolvency is paramount for banks to hold optimum liquid assets that could easily be converted into cash (Adusei 2015). As observed from Table 4, the relationship between liquidity risk and bank profitability is negative. The revelation made by the study result of Abbas, et al (2019) justifies the established result of this current study. This presents an argument to the effect that idle liquid assets is synonymous to savings which yield almost no return or very marginal returns instead of investing in interesting-earning securities and stocks to accrue income.
4.6. Credit Risk and Profitability
Findings on Table 4 show that using the random effects model to analyse the effect of financial leverage on bank profitability through the RAROA lens, CRISK has a statistically significant negative relationship with bank profitability. By implication, a lesser debt capital ratio should be preferred. By extension, it pays off for firms to use less debt capital relative to equity capital financing.