The influence of climate change on the distribution of the Oak Processionary Moth in Bavaria

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3412567/v1

Download PDF

Research Article

The influence of climate change on the distribution of the Oak Processionary Moth in Bavaria

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3412567/v1

This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

The Oak Processionary Moth (OPM) is a heat-loving moth native to the warmer regions of southern Europe, with an increasing range in central Europe. Its caterpillars, living in gregarious aggregations, can cause defoliation of infested trees. The OPM is of particular concern. Stinging hairs of its caterpillars can cause allergic reactions through the skin and respiratory tract.

The hypothesis being discussed is that increasing warming caused by climate change favours the spread of thermophilic moths.

The study is geographically focused on the Free State of Bavaria/Germany, where the pest first became known in the 1990s. Bavaria's natural forest communities historically contain a high proportion of broadleaved oaks. Because oaks thrive in warm, dry forest landscapes, they are in suspicion promoting the distribution of the OPM. Beside oaks are hosting the OPM, they offer hope for climate-adapted forest conversion because of their good climate resilience.

The hypothesis is tested through a systematic study of the habitat characteristics of OPM habitats by matching factors influencing population dynamics with time series of geographically referenced population data. The analysis precedes an extensive literature review and uses OPM population and climate science time series.

The results provide fitting data to support the hypothesis. Population dynamics show a high correlation with climate warming parameters, but global warming is not the only factor.

The implications for OPM population trends summarise and complement the current state of knowledge and provide a strong rationale for more in-depth research into scenarios for future population trends using geo-databased climate projections, forest history, site and silvicultural data to provide a assured assessment for the long-term success of the 'oak tree' under the threat of increasing infestation by the Oak Processionary Moth.

Climate Change

Oak Processionary Moth

OPM

Population Dynamics

Bavaria

Germany

With the flow of goods driven by global trade, non-native, potentially damaging organisms are also entering foreign habitats. Encouraged by climate warming, harmful organisms are migrating to Europe and are able to conquer new habitats. Global warming favors their spread to cooler, higher altitudes and to more northern areas with harsher climates. Species of concern to Europe and therefore subject to notification, often originating from climatically similar regions in Asia or North America, will thus find favorable living conditions with suitable host plants but without existing antagonists. Introduced pests can therefore easily drive out native species or damage host plants. (Angermüller 2016)

Unlike the pests brought to us by globalization, the Oak Processionary Moth (OPM) is a pest that was already native to Europe. Over the decades, and increasingly in recent years, it has established itself and spread throughout all of Germany's federal states.

Since the OPM is a heat-loving butterfly species (Rohe et al 2020, p. 8), it can be assumed that it will become more widespread as the climate warms. This research uses scientific studies to investigate whether the changing climate has already had an impact on the spread of the OPM in Bavaria, and whether other factors in addition to global warming are influencing the OPM population.

3.1 Oak processionary

The insect is problematic because of its offspring. The caterpillars with stinging hairs on their backs, which are harmful to the health of humans and animals from the third caterpillar stage onward, damage the trees they inhabit through their feeding behaviour.

From mid-June, the female moth lays her eggs on thin branches. This usually happens on oak trees, as the caterpillars feed almost strictly on their leaves. Feeding of non-oak trees is a rare exception but can occur due to mass reproduction caused by locally limited food supply. (Rohe et al 2020, p. 22) Depending on the weather, the caterpillars emerge from the clutches from about the beginning of April to the beginning of May. After hatching, they go in so-called processions (see Fig. 2) in search of food and go through six development stages in their further development. (Sobczyk 2014, p. 33) When feeding, the caterpillars first scrape off the top layers of the leafs, causing first pitting, later window feeding. In the end, only the midrib and the leaf veins of the leaves remain. Mass infestations of the caterpillars then lead to defoliation of the affected oaks. (Rohe et al 2020, p. 22)

The OPM is meanwhile considered to be a pest. This classification is based on the increased observation of repeated feeding damage caused by gradation, which is not uncommon with oak processionary moths (Möller 2013, p. 20]. Often, damage caused by caterpillars leads to subsequent damage from further pest infestations or tree diseases such as oak powdery mildew, as the tree becomes more susceptible due to the weakening. A series of such events can eventually lead to the death of the tree. The oak processionary moth, together with several other species, is therefore one of the most important factors in the oak complex disease. As oak is considered to be a relatively climate-resilient tree species, the damage caused by the OPM are to be considered particularly critical.

3.2 Climate change

Climate refers to the weather conditions in a particular area over a long period of time. Climate change describes changes in these conditions. Figure 3 illustrates climate change for the Free State of Bavaria. The comparison of the long-term mean of the annual mean temperature between 1961 and 1990 with the annual mean temperature in the calendar year 2020 shows the climate change in the form of a deviation.

Reasons for climate change can be of natural origin, such as volcanism or changes in ocean currents. Since industrialization, however, the climate has also been increasingly influenced by human activity. The main greenhouse gases produced by humans, such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone (Kiel et al 1997, p. 200] are primarily responsible for global warming. As a result, changing environmental conditions can have different effects on the organisms found in the areas. While some species will suffer from warmer temperatures, thermophilic species will benefit.

3.3 Geofactors of Bavaria

Geofactors are the defining characteristics of a landscape. Examples are relief, atmosphere and water balance. (Brockhaus 2007, p. 786] Due to the very different local climatic conditions, Bavaria is divided into seven climatic regions (see also Fig. 4).

Within these climatic regions, climatic conditions are similar in terms of average annual temperature, annual rainfall and differences between summer and winter. One of the reasons for these climatic contrasts is the enormous difference in altitude between the regions. While the Zugspitze is the highest point in Bavaria at 2,962 metres above sea level, the lowest point in Bavaria is only 102 metres above sea level at the mouth of the Kahl River. With such differences in altitude, it is impossible to find the same climatic conditions in both places.

In addition to the main influences on the population dynamics of the OPM in Bavaria described above, other conditions influence its distribution. These conditions are therefore described below.

3.4 Pest control measures

Humans fight the OPM primarily based on its offspring, caterpillars with stinging hairs on their backs. When the caterpillars feel threatened or even disturbed, they can shoot microscopic hairs, only about 0.2 mm long, from their hair pads, which cause severe allergic reactions in almost all people as who come into contact with these stinging hairs. These allergic reactions include severe itchy rash all over the body, fever, shivering, and asthmatic breathing difficulties. (Steinbach 99, p. 185)

The threat posed by the caterpillar's stinging hairs lasts well beyond the caterpillar's lifetime. If the OPM population collapses, for example due to lack of food, the remains are left behind: nests, moulting debris, pupae and caterpillar shells, and the millions of stinging hairs that can be carried and dispersed by wind and weather over long periods of time. As the effect of the stinging hairs or the danger they pose is reduced but persists for years (Rohe et al 2020, p. 24), the increasing prevalence of OPM in recent years justifies the need to control it for the health of residents, passers-by and forest workers.

As a result, people are developing different ways to control this pest. Examples of control methods are the removal of the nests, the spraying method - in which the infested trees or the nests of the larvae are treated with sprayers containing biocides, chemical substances, or nematodes. (Rohe et al 2020, p. 83), vacuuming the nests and then burning them (Fransen 2013, p. 41), felling the trees, or the method currently being tested of controlling OPM with the systematic use of antagonists.

3.5 Antagonists of the oak processionary moth

In general, little is known about the ecological relationships between the OPM and its antagonists. There is therefore a need for research to find out to what extent humans can systematically use the pest's natural antagonists. Three groups of natural enemies of the OPM are of particular interest.

The first group of antagonists, the parasitoids, use the OPM caterpillar as a host. Inside the caterpillar, the larvae of the parasites develop until they kill their host at the end of the developmental phase. Examples are caterpillar flies, the ichneumon fly or the parasitic wasp (Adler et al 2013, p. 3).

The second group of antagonists are the predatory beetles. They prey on OPM caterpillars in search of food. An example of such a beetle is the Great Pupa Predator.

The third and final group of predators are birds. They eat only the fully developed moths, because the poisonous stinging hairs of the caterpillars damage the digestive tract of the birds. (Adler et al 2013, p. 3) An exception is the cuckoo, which, unlike other birds, also eats very hairy caterpillars. The stinging hairs that enter the stomach and hook into the stomach lining, and the nettle poison of the OPM that they contain, are regurgitated by the bird from the digestive tract along with the stomach lining, so they do not pose a threat to this bird.

3.6 Tree species inventory

The development and spreading of the OPM is also influenced by the oak population and its characteristics.

The OPM is originally an insect of the open countryside. Initially it was mainly found on solitary oak trees - in parks, along avenues, in car parks, on the edge of woods and in field scrub. Since the late 1990s, however, it has increasingly attacked closed woodland stands. The main food sources for the caterpillars are the pedunculate and sessile oaks, as well as the northern red oak. Cocoons are occasionally found on other tree species, but no feeding takes place. Only the caterpillars gather there to moult or pupate. Until pupation, the caterpillars can only develop on oak. (Lobinger 2018) Suitable habitats must therefore have a sufficient number of oak trees to support the population of the OPM.

Detailed information on Germany's forests can be found in the Federal Forest Inventory. This is currently being carried out for the fourth time. The most recent results are from the 2012 inventory. (See Annex 3: Annex 3: The density of oak trees in Bavaria's forests).

In order to address the hypothesis, put forward at the beginning, the methodological approach and practical implementation of the research work was carried out in four steps:

Basic investigation
for the identification of significant influencing factors (cf. chapter 3)
Data research and collection
to create an assessment baseline on influencing factors.
Data Analysis
for the systematic determining of factor-related relationships
Discussion
for the comparison and discussion of cross-factor interdependencies

4.1 Data research and collection

The research and data collection were carried out with the aim of providing a broad basis for assessment, taking into account both scientific and practical expertise. For this reason, the state of the art in science and technology has been researched in scientific sources, and expert interviews have been conducted with experts in forestry and forest management.

4.1.1 Expert interviews

Interview with forester Carmen Hombach, Stadtwerke Kulmbach: The topic, which was originally limited to the city of Kulmbach, was discussed. It was possible to discuss basic influencing factors and the situation in the urban area of Kulmbach and in the forest of Kulmbach. Subsequently, the work topic had to be extended to the area of distribution in Bavaria, because records limited to the forest of Kulmbach region could not be provided to a sufficient extent as a basis for assessment.

Interview with Dr. Dr. habil. Gabriela Lobinger, Bavarian State Institute for Forestry and Forestry, Department of Forest Conservation: The infestation development of the OPM in relation to the area under consideration in Bavaria was discussed and checked for existing records. Evidence of OPM distribution maps for the period 2003-2017 was obtained. Possible factors influencing OPM population dynamics, such as rainfall or control measures, were also discussed.

4.1.2 Population dynamics reference data of the oak processionary moth

OPM has been a known pest in Bavaria since the 1990s, but initially with a limited spatial incidence. As a result, there is a lack of long-term observation series on its occurrence. Already in 1992/93, in connection with the mass reproduction of the gypsy moth in Lower and Middle Franconia, a regionally distinct infestation with oak processionary moths was noticed (Lobinger, 2013). As a result, the area of infestation expanded - in some cases chronic infestation with severe feeding damage occurred, especially at the focal points. In 2012, only a rough estimate of the population was possible. The survey is based on counts of pupal webs in late summer and counts of egg depositions on sample branches of felled oaks in winter. (Feicht 2012, p. 10).

In the following years, general records of OPM occurrence in Bavaria were made. The derived map material, dated up to 2021, distinguishes between four categories: core infestation area, detection of cocoons, punctual detection of moth flights and areas without detection. The regional differentiation in the map material with source data takes place within the administrative boundaries of the responsible offices for agriculture and food (AELF). The source data were mapped to county boundaries in the appendix maps to provide a mapping to urban and local government units and state administrative districts.

4.1.3 Reference data on climate change

In science, climate models are used to predict possible future developments. They are based on observations of a wide range of climate data, based on records of physical measurements from the past. The models represent different boundary conditions, resolutions, and development scenarios, which is why the results sometimes differ significantly. The Bavarian State Office for the Environment (Landesamt für Umwelt, LfU) has investigated which models are preferable for Bavaria. These were regionally refined to an area grid of 5x5 km. (LFU 2021, p. 16).

In relation to the hypothesis studied, the simulation results can be used to estimate the future population of the OPM (LfU, 2021a).

4.1.4 Reference data on geofactors

Atmospheric moisture and precipitation is a possible factor influencing the population dynamics of the oak processionary moth. For example, the climate records show an above-average amount of precipitation in 2007 (DWD 2023).

4.1.5 Further reference data

The number of tree species and their density come from the Federal Forest Inventory. In 2011, the forest area in Bavaria was 2.605.563 ha, of which 165.244 ha, or about 6%, were oak forests. As the livelihood of the oak processionary moth, the tree population is essential for its spread. (BMEL 2014, BMEL 2016).

No evaluable sources could be researched on possible control measures or on the influence of antagonists on the OPM population.

4.2 Data analysis

In the following data analysis, the influencing factors identified in section 3 and explained below are examined in more detail, and recognisable correlations are prepared for discussion. It is based on the data research and data collection.

4.2.1 Analysis of population dynamics

The Bavarian State Institute for Forests and Forestry is attempting to record and track the oincidene of the OPM on the basis of moth flights and detected cocoons. The maps of the distribution records of the OPM were used to track its distribution development in the period from 2003 to 2021 (for the data basis see Appendix 1: Maps of the population dynamics of the OPM in Bavaria). It is noticeable that there are gaps in the evidence documentation. An interpolation to fill them does not make sense. The spread of OPM is influenced by several factors, which interact with each other.

The first settlements were found in the north-western part of Bavaria in the Main region. In addition, parts of the Spessart-Röhn region and the north-western part of the Danube region were initially affected. In 2003, a total of fourteen areas were affected, ten of which were core areas, mainly in the Main region. Over the next four years, the disease spread to the south and east, with 19 areas affected. The core area increased by only one AELF area. Between 2007 and 2009, the infested area decreased to the level of 2003 with only 14, but not congruent, AELF areas. For example, while the area of Bad Neustadt a. d. Saale in northern Bavaria was considered a fully infested area in 2003, it was only partially infested in 2009. Other areas, such as Neumarkt i. d. Opf., which was only partially affected in 2003, are fully affected in 2009. In 2009, only seven AELF areas were core infested areas. In 2011, the core infested area reached a minimum with only four AELF areas, all located in the Main region. However, the total detection area also expanded to parts of eastern Bavaria. In 2014, the core infestation area increased to a new maximum. For the first time, cocoons were found in the northeast and further south of Bavaria, and moth flights were detected in five previously uninfested AELF areas. In 2015, a new infestation peak was reached, with a total of 37 AELF areas in which cocoons or moths were recorded.

In the following years, from 2016 to 2021, the infestation will increase continuously. Currently, only six out of 47 AELF areas in Bavaria have no evidence of infestation.

The occurrence of OPM has thus more than doubled since records began. From 2003 to 2021, infestation generally increased steadily, with only the period from 2009 to 2011 showing deviations. A characteristic feature is that the core infestation area is usually constant.

4.2.2 Analysis of climate change

The analysis of climatic influences was based on climate maps and diagrams of the mean annual temperature during the period considered. In addition, records of the onset of frost and the duration of the frost period until the start of vegetation were taken into account (see also Appendix 3: The density of oak trees in Bavaria’s forests). The data are based on the German Climate Atlas (DWD) and the Bavarian Climate Information System BayKIS (LFU 2023).

The analysis of the mean annual temperature shows a warming of about 2°C during the reference period (STMUV 2021, p. 4) (see also Fig. 5).

Consistently over the observation period, individual areas in the east and south of Bavaria were cooler than the rest of the state on an annual average. In general, the Main region was the warmest region in Bavaria.

An analysis of the frost period in the reference period shows, that with a few exceptions, the first frost day in the present occurs much later in the year than in the reference period of the long-term average. This shows that it was colder in the past than it is today. The growing season is correspondingly longer and starts earlier. Forecasts indicate that this trend will continue in the future.

The earlier start of vegetation is particularly evident in the Spessart-Röhn, Main, Danube and partly in the southern Bavarian uplands. While the start of vegetation in 2003 was between the 80th and 100th day of the year, in 2019 it is already between the 60th and 80th day of the year (see also Annex 4: Data on climate change in Bavaria in the past and future), to which the oaks respond with earlier budding. The earlier onset of vegetation thus favours the thermophilic oak processionary moth, whose larvae hatch earlier and go in search of food because of the weather conditions.

4.2.3 Analysis of the geofactors of Bavaria

According to the experts consulted, the development of cocoons and caterpillars of OPM is thought to suffer from humid weather conditions and rainfall. The analysis of the weather conditions shows a weather phase from 2007 onwards in the reference period, which was characterised by increased annual precipitation. (DWD 2023, LFU 2021).

4.2.4 Analysis of other influencing factors

In addition to the factors already described the possible influence of humans on population dynamics through control measures is obvious. Although a wide range of measures and pesticides have been tested and used against OPM caterpillars, there are no systematic and traceable records of their use in the reference area of Bavaria. According to an expert interview with Dr. Dr. habil. Gabriela Lobinger from the Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Department of Forest Conservation, chemical control measures against the OPM were applied in 2010 and 2011.

The importance of natural antagonists of OPM has also been investigated as an influencing factor. Again, there is a lack of systematic studies to establish a link with the reference period and geographical area of this investigation. Only descriptions of various antagonists and some assumptions about causal relationships can be found in the literature (Adler et al 2013, p. 3, Rohe et al 2020, 81 ff].

Potential food sources are fundamental to the spread of OPM. According to the Federal Forest Inventory (BMEL 2016), the presence and density of oak stands is therefore an important prerequisite. The largest and densest oak stands are found in the Main region, i.e. in north-western Bavaria. While oaks can still be found in the central part of Bavaria, their abundance and density towards the south, although not exactly quantifiable, is significantly lower (see also Appendix 2: The regional natural forest composition of Bavaria and Appendix 3: The density of oak trees in Bavaria's forests).

As a result of the analyses, the hypothesis that global warming generally favours the population dynamics of the OPM in Bavaria can be well supported by data. The OPM is a thermophilic species (Petercord 2011, p. 11). Since the 1990s, it has appeared in Germany at increasingly conspicuous densities. The comparison of population development with selected parameters of global warming generally supports the hypothesis.

The settlement of the OPM began in the Main region. This can be explained by the fact that the Main region is the warmest climatic region in Bavaria. Due to the thermophilic nature of the OPM, a temperature-induced initial colonization is clearly traceable. In addition, the Main region, as the region with the largest oak stands, offers the best living conditions for the OPM.

This hypothesis is supported by the almost continuous trend of the spread of OPM in Bavaria over the years. Average annual temperatures, which have been shown to have risen continuously in recent years, can be seen as the driving force behind the spread. The associated droughts and lack of precipitation, especially after 2007, support the working hypothesis. Furthermore, an earlier onset of vegetation favours the food supply and the development of the caterpillars.

However, changes in the population of the OPM in Bavaria during the period under review cannot be explained by global warming alone. It is characteristic for this pest that its population dynamics are also decisively determined by the course of the weather during the different development phases of its offspring (Feicht 2012, p. 10). The influence of the weather is well documented in the database for the period since 2007. Compared to the long-term annual average, this period is characterised by significantly humid weather conditions with increased precipitation. The correlation with the temporary decline in the OPM population in the following years up to 2009 can thus be demonstrated.

The success of the use of pesticides can be seen from many case-related observations, but has not been demonstrated using data from Bavaria. Analyses show that the impact of experience with OPM control, which began in 2010 and is concentrated in the core areas of the outbreak, has not been as strong as the impact of the weather in the previous period. Despite the control measures, the pest has spread. It can be concluded that the influence of mean annual temperature is greater than that of pest control.

The selective reduction of the core infection area in 2011 can be explained mainly by the lower mean annual temperature in 2010, estimated at about 7.3°C. It can be assumed that this lowest mean annual temperature since 1996 significantly favoured the decline of the OPM population in the following year.

The absence of OPM in the border areas in the east and south of Bavaria - where the average annual temperature was consistently the lowest in the whole of Bavaria during the study period - also supports the working hypothesis.

Analyses and comparisons of time series of OPM population trends and climate observations support the hypothesis that climate change is influencing the distribution of OPM in general. The OPM can spread further and faster in Bavaria due to global warming.

However, global warming is not the only influencing factor. The weather and the amount of annual precipitation have also been shown to be important. The population of oak trees and their density in the infested area is essential.

However, systematic proof of the effectiveness of pest control and antagonists against OPM could not be provided with the database for Bavaria in general.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all those who read the manuscript and provided helpful comments, advice, and guidance. We also thank Dr. Dr. habil. Gabriela Lobinger from the Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Department of Forest Conservation and Carmen Hombach, city forester of Kulmbach for the help and expertise throughout all aspects of this study and StR Matthias Kohles from the Markgraf-Georg-Friedrich-Gymnasium Kulmbach for mentoring. We would like to acknowledge the University of Bayreuth for promoting.

Funding

No funding was received to assist with the preparation of this manuscript.

Conflicts of interest/Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Financial interests

The authors have no financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Ethical approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Code availability

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Availability of data and material

Data availability at referenced sources

Authors' contribution

Conceptualization: Scarlett Rosemann; Formal analysis and investigation: Scarlett Rosemann; Writing - original draft preparation: Scarlett Rosemann and Bernd Rosemann; Writing - review and editing: Scarlett Rosemann and Bernd Rosemann; Project Administration: Scarlett Rosemann, Supervision: Bernd Rosemann. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Rights and permissions

Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Adler, Stefan, Daltrup, J.: The Oak Processionary Moth (Der Eichenprozessionsspinner), NABU Backround, League for Nature Conservation in Bavaria, Berlin, 2013.
Angermüller, Frank: Diseases and Pests on the Rise (Krankheiten und Schädlinge auf dem Vormarsch) : Developments, Problems and Strategies (Entwicklungen, Probleme und Strategien), Veitshöchheim, 2016. Landespflege aktuell.
BayKISa: Climate Tool of the Future. In: Bavarian Climate Information System (Bayerisches Klimainformationssystem). Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU), Augsburg, 2023. Available at: https://klimainformationssystem.bayern.de/klimatool/klima-der-zukunft. CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.de, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
BayKISb: Climate ool of the Past. In: Bavarian Climate Information System (Bayerisches Klimainformationssystem). Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU), Augsburg, 2023. Available at: https://klimainformationssystem.bayern.de/klimatool/klimatool-der-vergangenheit. CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.de, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
BMEL: National Forest Inventory: Results of the third National Forrest Inventory. Reference Year 2012, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), Berlin, 2014.
BMEL: The Forest in Germany (Der Wald in Deutschland): Selected Results of the Third Federal Forest Inventory (Ausgewählte Ergebnisse der dritten Bundeswaldinventur), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), Berlin, 15. April 2016.
Bräsicke, Nadine: The processionary moths of Central Europe – An overview (Die Prozessionsspinner Mitteleuropas - Ein Überblick). In: (Hrsg.) Bräsicke, Nadine: Ecological damage, health hazards, and measures to control oak processionary moth in forestry and urban green spaces. (Ökologische Schäden, gesundheitliche Gefahren und Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Eichenprozessionsspinners im Forst und im urbanen Grün), Page 11-19, Brunswick, 2013. ISBN 978-3-930037-95-7.
BRO: Der Brockhaus. F.A. Brockhaus GmbH, Leipzig, 2007. ISBN 9783765332302.
Csoka, Gyorgy: Eichen-Prozessionsspinner (Thaumetopoea processionea). Available at: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/Thaumetopoea_processionea01.jpg. Hungary Forest, Research Institute. 24.11.2008. CC BY 3.0 US, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
DWD: German Climate Atlas (Deutscher Klimaatlas). German Weather Service (DWD), Available at: https://www.dwd.de/klimaatlas, Offenbach am Main, 2023, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Feicht, Elfriede; Martina Weber: Distribution and Population Dynamics of the Oak Processionary Moth (Verbreitung und Populationsdynamik des Eichenprozessionsspinners) : Weather and Forest Structure Influence the Development of heat-loving Insects in Oak Stands (Witterung und Waldstruktur beeinflussen die Entwicklung wärmeliebender Insekten in Eichenbestände), LFW Fact Sheet, The Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Weihenstephan, 2012.
Fransen, J.: Leidraad beheersing eikenprocessierups: Update 2013, Wageningen, 2013.
Kiehl, Jeffrey; Kevin Trenberth. Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget [online]. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), Jg. 1997(78), S. 197-208, 1997. Available at: http://www.geo.utexas.edu/courses/387H/PAPERS/kiehl.pdf, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
LfU: Bavarian Climate Information System (Bayerisches Klimainformationssystem), Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU), Augsburg, 2023. Available at: https://klimainformationssystem.bayern.de/.
LfU: Climate Fact Sheets [Climate Region] - Climate of the Past and Future (Klima-Faktenblätter [Klimaregion] – Klima der Vergangenheit und Zukunft). Bavarian State Office for Environment, Augsburg, 2021, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
LfU: Bavaria's changing climate (Bayerns Klima im Wandel): Climate region Main region (Klimaregion Mainregion), Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU), Augsburg, 2021.
Lobinger, Gabriela: Oak Processionary Moth (Thaumetopoea processionea): Biology - harmful effects - control (Der Eichenprozessionsspinner (Thaumetopoea processionea) Biologie – Schadwirkung – Bekämpfung), Vortrag, Waldbauernschule Goldberg, Goldberg, 29. Juli 2019.
Lobinger, Gabriela: Oak Processionary Moth (Eichenprozessionsspinner). LFW Fact Sheet, The Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Freising, August 2018. Available at: https://www.lfl.bayern.de/mam/cms04/service/dateien/mb15_eichenprozessionsspinner.pdf, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Lobinger, Gabriela: Schadpotenzial des Eichenprozessionsspinners in den Wäldern des Freistaates Bayern. Ökologische Schäden, gesundheitliche Gefahren und Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Eichenprozessionsspinners im Forst und im urbanen Grün. In: Julius-Kühn-Archiv. Vol. 440, Julius Kühn-Institut, Quedlinburg, 2013, ISBN 978-3-930037-95-7. Available at: https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00047962/JKA_440_03.pdf, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Lobinger, Gabriela; Günter Wallerer: Oak processionary moth: between plant protection and health care (Eichenprozessionsspinner: Zwischen Pflanzenschutz und Gesundheitsvorsorge). In: LFW up-to-date, Issue 2020/1, Page 38-41, 2020. Available at: https://www.lwf.bayern.de/mam/cms04/waldschutz/dateien/a124_eichenprozessionsspinner.pdf, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
LFW: Oak processionary moth - danger for forest and humans (Eichenprozessionsspinner - Gefahr für Wald und Mensch). Bavarian State Institute for Forests and Forestry (Bayerische Landesanstalt für Wald und Forstwirtschaft, LFW), Freising, 2022. Available at: https://www.lwf.bayern.de/waldschutz/monitoring/066204/, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Kleuske: Thaumetopoea processionea. Available at: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Thaumetopoea_processionea%2C_closeup.JPG. CC BY-SA 3.0, 17. June 2012, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Möller, Katrin: Damage potential of the oak processionary moth in the forests of Brandenburg (Schadpotenzial des Eichenprozessionsspinners in den Wäldern Brandenburgs). In: (Hrsg.) Bräsicke, Nadine: Ökologische Schäden, gesundheitliche Gefahren und Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Eichenprozessionsspinners im Forst und im urbanen Grün, S. 20-21, Brunswick, 2013. ISBN 978-3-930037-95-7.
Niesar, Christoph Mathias: Oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) distribution, biology, threats, countermeasures, legal situation (Eichenprozessionsspinner (Thaumetopoea processionea) Verbreitung, Biologie, Gefährdung, Gegenmaßnahmen, rechtliche Situation). Vortrag, Borken 24.04.2012.
PEFC: Regional Forest Report Bavaria 2015 (Regionaler Waldbericht Bayern 2015), Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC), Munich, 2015.
Petercord, R.: Oak damage in Lower and Middle Franconia after insect damage and powdery mildew infestation (Eichenschäden in Unter- und Mittelfranken nach Insektenfraß und Mehltaubefall). In: (Hrsg.) Steyrer G., Tomiczek Ch., Lackner Ch.: Forest protection up to date (Forstschutz Aktuell), Vienna, 2011.
Rohe, Wolfgang; Lars Schwarz; Denis Ekarius: The Oak Processionary Moth: Occurrence - Danger - Control (Der Eichenprozessionsspinner: Vorkommen – Gefahr – Bekämpfung). Quelle & Meyer, Wiebelsheim, 2020. ISBN 978349401827.
Saku, Luisa: Oak processionary moth: Almost all of Bavaria is endangered area (Eichenprozessionsspinner: Fast ganz Bayern ist Gefährdungsgebiet [online]). In: Augsburger Allgemeine, Jg. 2020, 8. Mai 2020. Available at: https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/bayern/Schaedlinge-Eichenprozessionsspinner-Fast-ganz-Bayern-ist-Gefaehrdungsgebiet-id57325496.html, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Schwegler, Ursula; Gabriela Lobinger: Der Eichenprozessionsspinner: Vorkommen. Available at: https://www.lgl.bayern.de/downloads/gesundheit/arbeitsplatz_umwelt/doc/eps_poster_vorkommen_130121.pdf,Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety (Bayerisches Landesamt für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelsicherheit (LGL), Erlangen, 2013, [last checked: 1. Oktober 2023].
Sobczyk, Thomas: The Oak Processionary Moth in Germany: History - Biology - Dangers - Control (Der Eichenprozessionsspinner in Deutschland): Historie – Biologie – Gefahren – Bekämpfung, BfN-Scripts, League for Nature Conservation (BfN), Bonn, 2014.
Steinbach, Gunter (Hrsg.): The animals of our homeland. Guide through the nature (Die Tiere unserer Heimat). Wegweiser durch die Natur. ADAC-Verlag; Publishing House Stuttgart, Munich, 1999. ISBN 978-3870038786.
StMUV: Climate Report Bavaria 2021 (Klima-Report Bayern 2021), Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection (STMUV), Munich, 2021.
Wulf, Alfred; Schuhmacher; Ralf Neukampf: Zunehmende Ausbreitung des Eichenprozessionsspinners [online]. In: Journal of Cultivated Plants, Jg. 209. Volume 61/1, Page. 66, 2009.

No competing interests reported.

Appendix.docx

Download PDF

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

The influence of climate change on the distribution of the Oak Processionary Moth in Bavaria

Status:

Version 1

Abstract

Figures

1 Introduction

2 Objective

3 Basics

3.1 Oak processionary

3.2 Climate change

3.3 Geofactors of Bavaria

3.4 Pest control measures

3.5 Antagonists of the oak processionary moth

3.6 Tree species inventory

4 Procedure, material and methods

4.1 Data research and collection

4.1.1 Expert interviews

4.1.2 Population dynamics reference data of the oak processionary moth

4.1.3 Reference data on climate change

4.1.4 Reference data on geofactors

4.1.5 Further reference data

4.2 Data analysis

4.2.1 Analysis of population dynamics

4.2.2 Analysis of climate change

4.2.3 Analysis of the geofactors of Bavaria

4.2.4 Analysis of other influencing factors

5 Results and Discussion

6 Summary

Declarations

References

Additional Declarations

Supplementary Files

Status:

Version 1