The sea temperature in Magdalena Bay had a well-defined seasonal pattern (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2010), where an increase can be clearly observed during the second half of the year. The significant variability found in the SST may be caused by the interannual variability of the system itself, reinforced by the arrival of the El Niño event to the Mexican coast. Nevertheless, the difference in SST between the average minimum and maximum in 2015 was slightly higher in April (> 1.5°) and similar in August (> 0.5°C), compared to other periods without an El Niño event (Funes-Rodríguez et al. 2007). Salinity presented a stable trend during the first half of the year; however, an increase in the average was observed from August to October. This was due to the increase in solar irradiance during most of the second semester, attributable to the high temperature and evaporation, especially in the shallow stations; in addition to its relationship with the presence of water of subtropical origin from outside, which is warmer and saltier (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2013). Dissolved oxygen (DO) showed significant changes related to the seasonal variation of SST. During the first half of the year, DO concentration increased in the cold season, while in the second half of the year it decreased as SST increased, being higher than 5 ml L− 1 on average; therefore, it should not be a limiting factor in organisms, since hypoxia could occur under concentrations lower than 2 ml L− 1 (Roman et al. 2019). The increase in oxygen concentration (late spring and early summer), could be related to the intensity of the winds, which allows ocean-atmosphere exchange, especially in the shallower seasons, as occurs in this season when the northwest winds are more intense (Obeso-Nieblas et al. 1999). The concentration of Chla, despite not showing significant differences throughout the period studied, showed an increase from late spring and early summer, similar to what has been reported in other studies (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013; Murillo-Murillo et al. 2013). Similarly, Chla maxima in the adjacent marine zone, presented this same temporal variation, related to upwelling events (Martínez-López and Verdugo-Díaz 2000). However, the Chla concentration was comparatively lower than reported in other studies (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2010, 2013), probably because this research was conducted along the Bay coastline during neap tides and in an El Niño year. The highest Chla concentrations were observed in the shallowest and innermost portion of the Bay (Punta Gato), which coincides with the findings of different authors, probably due to the contribution of nutrients from waste discharges, resuspension of sediment rich in organic matter and the contribution of organic matter from mangrove forests, among others (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2014; Cervantes-Duarte and García-Romero 2016; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019).
Variability of zooplankton community structure
The effects of sea warming on zooplankton abundance in northwestern Mexico and Magdalena Bay are in the trend of decline since the 1980s (Palomares-García and Gómez-Gutiérrez 1996; Hernández-Trujillo et al. 2010; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019), as similar values have been recorded in the most recent El Niño events (1997–1998; 2015–2016), with decreases of up to 25%, with respect to 1982–1983 (Palomares-García and Gómez-Gutiérrez 1996; López-Ibarra and Palomares-García 2006; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019).
During El Niño 2015, 20% more taxonomic groups were found than reported by Hernández-Trujillo et al. (2010) for a relatively cold period; this increase in groups may be associated with the tropicalization of the ecosystem that has been reported in previous studies (Palomares-García and Gómez-Gutiérrez 1996; Cota-Meza et al. 1992; Jiménez-Rosenberg et al. 2007). On the other hand, the number of taxonomic groups is higher than that recorded during El Niño 1997–1998 (Hernández-Trujillo et al. 2010), although this is probably due to differences in sampling effort compared to this study.
During this research, no differences were found among the most abundant zooplankton taxa with respect to the historical reported for Magdalena Bay (Gómez-Gutiérrez et al. 2001; Hernández-Trujillo et al. 2010), for example copepods were the most abundant taxonomic group in the community, consistent with what was reported by Gómez-Gutiérrez et al. (2001) and Hernández-Trujillo et al. (2010).
On the other hand, the reduced abundance of zooplankton collected was probably due to the scarcity of phytoplankton reported by Jiménez-Quiroz et al. (2019) for the study area, as a consequence of the prolonged warming to which the bay was subjected. In addition, the mesh size was an important factor in determining the abundance found, which was lower than expected, collecting mesozooplankton and adult stages of zooplankton.
The warm sea conditions in MB were recorded from the beginning of 2015 until the end of 2015. As mentioned, the typical seasonal condition in Magdalena Bay was compounded by the concurrence of TB and El Niño 2015-16. As a consequence, throughout the annual cycle, sea temperature was found to be warmer than the historical reported for MB and the biological affectations and structural changes in marine communities demonstrated this (Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019). The highest zooplankton abundances were recorded in the innermost station of the Bay (Punta Gato), probably because at this site Chla concentrations were higher than in the rest of the oceanographic stations analyzed.
In MB the time series of specific abundance of copepods confirms them as the dominant group, even under atypical weather conditions such as those produced during El Niño events (Hernández-Trujillo et al. 2010) although the community structure has had important changes that when contrasted over time evidence hierarchical changes of predominance and, therefore, of resource utilization in the ecosystem (Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019).
In this context, copepods in the studied area showed increases in abundance during the first and second half of the year, possibly due to the increase in specific richness and the consequent morphological and physiological characteristics, in addition to the type of feeding. During El Niño 1982–1983 there was a seasonal replacement of Paracalanus parvus, during the first part of the year, by Acartia lilljeborgii and A. tonsa in the second part (Palomares-García and Gómez-Gutiérrez 1996). In 2015 there was no species turnover, and A. lilljeborgii dominated throughout the year (Alemany-Rodríguez 2019), associated with a warm environment that favored the permanence of the species. One aspect that supports this fact is the high fecundity of the species throughout the year (Palomares-García and De Silva-Dávila 2007).
The presence of salpids and jellyfish, associated with higher SST, is consistent with the biology of these groups, which have a wide tolerance in warm habitats (Gasca and Suárez-Morales 1996), likewise the presence of diplostracs and appendicularias occurred in waters with high Chla concentrations, probably due to their feeding habits. These groups are described (mostly, in the case of diplostracs) as herbivores, which may explain their distribution in areas with high Chla concentration, which can be taken as a proxy for areas of high phytoplankton cell density (Longhurst 1985; Bacescu and Petrescu 1999).
Statistical analysis of oceanographic stations with environmental variables correlated Punta Gato with Chla gradients, probably because this station has an associated mangrove area that may contribute to the greater contribution of nutrients in the form of dissolved organic matter to the marine environment (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2014; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019).
Live/dead ratio
We observed that the increase in TSS influenced the proportion of live and dead zooplankton, considering that this environmental variable is the one that prevalently affects all biological processes in the sea and becomes a disruptive element in the pelagic ecosystem.
The highest proportions of dead organisms coincided with the months where the lowest concentration of Chla was recorded. This indicates the close relationship between zooplankton and primary productivity in the study area, even when the taxonomic groups in question are not strictly herbivorous (Longhurst 1985).
Coastal upwellings were weak during 2015 off Magdalena Bay (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2021). These upwellings constitute the main nutrient input to the bay (Zaytsev et al. 2003). The weakening of the upwellings may have been related to high air temperature and low wind strength (Zaba and Rudnick 2016; Gómez-Ocampo 2017).
The highest percentage of live zooplankton was observed inside the lagoon (Punta Gato) and at the Baja Seas station. The inner station presented particular conditions due to the contribution of nutrients from the residual discharges of the San Carlos estuary, resuspension of sediment rich in organic matter and the contribution of organic matter from the mangrove forests, among others (Cervantes-Duarte et al. 2014; Cervantes-Duarte and García-Romero 2016; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019), which could be forming a "microhabitat" in this area that could favor the survival of the zooplankton community. In addition, Baja Seas is the area where there is an artificial food supply for fish farming, which, together with the excreta from the fish farming, contributes to the supply of nutrients and consequent enrichment of this area (Mangion et al. 2017).
The Palmita and Boca stations showed very high mortality percentages as a consequence of the oligotrophic conditions and stress generated in the lagoon by the joint action of the warming events and the weakening of the upwelling during 2015 in MB (Cervantes-Duarte and García-Romero 2016; Jiménez-Quiroz et al. 2019).
Copepods, having the lowest percentage of dead organisms throughout the study period in MB, showed their adaptive capacity to withstand thermal stress conditions more efficiently than other taxa of the zooplankton community (Elliott et al. 2010; Elliott and Tang 2011; Medellin-Mora 2016). This group maintained stable and high survival percentages throughout the year, presenting maximum survival rates both in the cold and warm seasons, which is due to the wide trophic diversity it presents, allowing it to take optimal advantage of the resources available in the environment (Kleppel et al. 1988; Gasca and Suárez-Morales 1996; Palomares-García et al. 2003).
Decapods and chaetognaths presented higher percentages of dead organisms, probably due to the unavailability of suitable prey and a lower capacity to survive the persistent warm conditions throughout the 2015 annual cycle. Chaetognaths are strictly carnivorous organisms (Cota-Meza et al. 1992) and therefore require the presence of potential prey and a high abundance of prey. However, López-Ibarra (2008) mentions a greater susceptibility of herbivorous organisms to El Niño conditions since carnivorous and omnivorous organisms have greater plasticity to compete for resources in pelagic environments.
The data obtained on the live/dead zooplankton ratio indicate that for the period studied it fluctuated significantly and that this ratio should be taken into account in the assessment of abundance by group, and not generalized due to the physiological capacity that each one of them has to adapt to environmental variability. However, it is an indicator of the live biomass that is captured in mesozooplankton tows and that is what is carrying out the energy transfer in the marine pelagic food web. It is also necessary to obtain these ratios from microzooplankton to have a closer estimate of the live/dead ratio and to have a proxy for non-predatory mortality of marine zooplankton.