Patient characteristics
A total of 444 children who underwent allogeneic HSCT were included, including 304 males (68%) and 140 females (32%). The median age at transplantation was 3.3 years (1.8-6.5 years). There were 182 (41%) patients with primary immunodeficiency disease (PID), 118 (27%) with thalassemia major, 65 (15%) with acute leukemia, 62 (14%) with bone marrow failure syndrome, and 17 (3%) with other diseases. A total of 307 patients (69%) received unrelated donor hematopoietic stem cells, and 137 patients (31%) received related donor hematopoietic stem cells. There were 208 (47%) patients who were HLA-typing matched and 236 (53%) patients with HLA-typing mismatched. In terms of stem cell sources, 419 patients (94%) received peripheral blood. Patients with ECE were typically female (P=0.028), ≥6 years of age (P=0.001), accompanied by bone marrow failure syndrome (P=0), and HLA-type mismatches (P=0.035) and had a greater incidence of aGVHD (P=0.001). The patients and disease characteristics are shown in Table 1.
Incidence of early cardiac events
From days 0 to 100 after allo-HSCT, 73 patients (16.4%) had at least one cardiac event, for an overall incidence of 16.4% (95% CI, 12.9-19.8%; Figure 1). The median time for ECE was 15 days (7-32 days) after allo-HSCT. ECEs included valvular disease (n=46), pericardial effusion (n=38), arrhythmia (n=9), heart failure (n=16), and dilated cardiomyopathy (n=1). The most common was valvular disease, with a cumulative incidence of 10.4% (95% CI, 7.5-13.2%), and the least common was dilated cardiomyopathy, with a cumulative incidence of 0.2% (95% CI, 0-0.7%). The cumulative incidence of ECEs is shown in Table 2. Of the patients who experienced ECEs, 28 (38%) had more than one cardiac event, including 19 (26%) with two cardiac events and 9 (12%) with three cardiac events.
Risk factors for early cardiac events
According to the univariate analysis, female sex (HR, 1.883; P=0.008), age ≥6 years (HR, 2.188; P=0.001), body mass index (BMI) < 16 kg/m2 (HR, 1.605; P=0.044), and HLA-typing mismatch (HR, 1.734; P=0.025) had significant effects on the occurrence of ECEs. According to our multivariate analysis, female sex (HR, 1.836; P=0.011), age ≥6 years (HR, 2.266; P=0.001), BMI < 16 kg/m2 (HR, 1.651; P=0.035), and HLA-type mismatch (HR, 1.711; P=0.029) were also risk factors for ECE. However, the Cy-based conditioning regimen, history of treatment with CY or anthracycline, congenital heart disease, cardiac events before allo-HSCT, blood lipids, and blood glucose had no significant effect on the occurrence of ECEs (Table 3).
We designed a stratified cardiac risk score ranging from 0 to 4 that included female sex, age ≥6 years, BMI < 16 kg/m2, and mismatched HLA typing to predict the risk of ECEs. Within 100 days after allo-HSCT, the cumulative incidences of cardiac events with scores of 0 (n=2), 1 (n=18), 2 (n=32), and 3-4 (n=21) were 2.4% (95% CI, 0-5.7%), 9.4% (95% CI, 5.24-13.6%), 16.7% (95% CI, 11.3-22.2%), and 22.7% (95% CI, 12.8-28.6%), respectively. Our analysis revealed that the cumulative incidence of ECEs increased significantly with increasing scores (P=0.00011; Figure 2). The cumulative incidences of ECEs in patients with scores of 0-1, 2 and 3-4 were 9.1% (95% CI, 5.2-12.8%), 21.9% (95% CI, 14.9-28.4%) and 27.3% (95% CI, 16.6-36.6%), respectively.
Survival outcomes
The deadline for follow-up was November 2023. During a median follow-up of 36.8 months (18.4-61.7 months), 71 patients died, 32 of whom had cardiac events. The causes of death in patients with ECEs included respiratory failure (n=15), hemorrhage involving important organs (intracranial, lung, or gastrointestinal bleeding) (n=6), severe GVHD (n=4), disease recurrence (n=3), heart failure (n=2), pericardial tamponade (n=1), and severe infection (n=1). The causes of death in patients without ECEs included respiratory failure (n=18), severe infection (n=6), severe GVHD (n=5), hemorrhage of important organs (intracranial, lung, or gastrointestinal) (n=5), and disease recurrence (n=5).
According to the univariate analysis, ECEs (HR=0.181; P=0.000), an HLA-type mismatch (HR=2.263; P=0.002), aGVHD (HR=2.211; P=0.004), and aGVHD grade (HR=3.257; P=0.000) had significant effects on the OS rate. According to the multivariate analysis, ECEs (HR, 4.485; P=0.000) and aGVHD grade (HR, 2.534; P=0.009) were risk factors for a decreased OS rate (Table 4).
The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rates in the ECE group were 60.3% (95% CI: 50.0%-72.6%), 56.9% (95% CI: 46.4%-69.7%), and 54.5% (95% CI: 43.7%-67.9%), respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rates in the group without ECEs were 91.4% (95% CI: 88.6%-94.3%), 90.1% (95% CI: 87.1%-93.3%), and 89.2% (95% CI: 85.9%-92.6%), respectively. Survival analysis revealed that ECEs had a significant negative impact on the OS rate after allo-HSCT (Figure 3). After stratification according to the number of combined ECEs, we found that the greater the number of combined cardiac events, the more significant was the negative impact on OS rates (P < 0.0001; Figure 4).