Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China
Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.
Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration.
Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.
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Posted 06 Jan, 2021
Invitations sent on 07 Jan, 2021
On 07 Jan, 2021
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 05 Dec, 2020
Received 30 Nov, 2020
Received 19 Nov, 2020
On 10 Nov, 2020
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2020
On 07 Nov, 2020
On 27 Oct, 2020
On 26 Oct, 2020
On 26 Oct, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
Received 07 Sep, 2020
Received 28 Aug, 2020
On 17 Aug, 2020
On 13 Aug, 2020
Received 12 Aug, 2020
On 08 Aug, 2020
Invitations sent on 04 Aug, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 26 Jul, 2020
Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China
Posted 06 Jan, 2021
Invitations sent on 07 Jan, 2021
On 07 Jan, 2021
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 20 Dec, 2020
On 05 Dec, 2020
Received 30 Nov, 2020
Received 19 Nov, 2020
On 10 Nov, 2020
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2020
On 07 Nov, 2020
On 27 Oct, 2020
On 26 Oct, 2020
On 26 Oct, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
Received 07 Sep, 2020
Received 28 Aug, 2020
On 17 Aug, 2020
On 13 Aug, 2020
Received 12 Aug, 2020
On 08 Aug, 2020
Invitations sent on 04 Aug, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 26 Jul, 2020
Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.
Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration.
Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the latest manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.