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Research article
Zhen Hu
Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5487-676X
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.
Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration.
Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.
Keywords
Wuhan, COVID-19, population migration, epidemic prevention and control
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Version 3
Posted 06 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 09 Feb, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 01 Feb, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jan, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 16 Jan, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Jan, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Jan, 2021
Editor assigned
On 20 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 20 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 20 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 05 Dec, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 30 Nov, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 19 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 10 Nov, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Nov, 2020
Editor assigned
On 27 Oct, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 Oct, 2020
Editor invited
On 26 Oct, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 15 Sep, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 07 Sep, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 28 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 17 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 13 Aug, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 12 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 08 Aug, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 Aug, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 28 Jul, 2020
Editor assigned
On 28 Jul, 2020
Editor invited
On 26 Jul, 2020
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See the published version of this preprint at BMC Public Health.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Zhen Hu
Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5487-676X
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Version 3
Posted 06 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 09 Feb, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 01 Feb, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jan, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 16 Jan, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Jan, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Jan, 2021
Editor assigned
On 20 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 20 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 20 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 05 Dec, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 30 Nov, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 19 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 10 Nov, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Nov, 2020
Editor assigned
On 27 Oct, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 Oct, 2020
Editor invited
On 26 Oct, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 15 Sep, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 07 Sep, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 28 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 17 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 13 Aug, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 12 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 08 Aug, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 Aug, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 28 Jul, 2020
Editor assigned
On 28 Jul, 2020
Editor invited
On 26 Jul, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.
Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration.
Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.
Figure 1
Figure 2
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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