One of the most important resources for both people and ecosystems, groundwater is a massive freshwater reservoir that resides underneath the surface of the Earth. Around 42% of the water used for farming, as well as 36% and 27% for homes and commercial purposes, and over one-third of water used all over the world come from aquifer reserves (Scanlon et al. 2005, Doll et al. 2012). The extent of change brought about by humans is now global rather than regional (Review et al. 2023). The main factor for enhancing aquifer levels through canals, rivers, and lakes is groundwater recharge (Shabahat et al. 2022). On a global basis, it supplies a large volume of fresh water to use in agriculture, industries, and drinking (Carrard et al. 2019).
With an increase in human activities, groundwater consumption is growing fast (Steinschneider et al. 2015). Among the main causes of environmental changes is global warming (Haider et al. 2022). Along with the anthropogenic stress on water supplies, the rapid expansion in the global population has caused a general rise in demand of water (Steinschneider et al. 2015; Odhiambo et al. 2016; Minnig et al. 2018; Carrard et al. 2019; Dilawar et al. 2021). Due to increasing urbanization caused by growing communities and the economic growth, many cultivable fields were converted into metropolitan centers [10]. Many businesses use groundwater, particularly when producing goods like paper, beverages, marble cutting and food (Mishra et al. 2020). Climate change is another factor that has increased the load on groundwater supplies, which on the other hand also increases the prospect of groundwater recharge. Drought is a natural danger that can have a variety of effects, including deteriorating land conditions, wildfires, reduced food production, and decreased air and water quality (Jaffry et al. 2022). The duration, severity, and spatial variability of droughts have all risen in recent years due to climate change, increasing their detrimental effects (Nagra et al. 2022). Droughts and climate change have an impact on people's access to clean water and food security (Sam et al. 20218). Drought can be brought on by urban and rural development because of over pumping for domestic and commercial uses (Shah et al. 2005).
Groundwater exploitation constitutes some of many significant aspects of urban development which may have an effect on aquifer ecosystem. Lack of effective land-use rules in developing countries, particularly in metropolitan areas, contributes to the degradation of groundwater. There is a lot of pressure on water resources in South Asian large cities because of population increase, droughts, and heat waves in countries like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh (Shah et al. 2005). These trends towards increased growth are increasing the area's groundwater use (Thomas et al. 2014). A successful groundwater-focused land-use management plan for urban expansion could aid in restoring both the standard of living and water supply. The lack of understanding regarding changes in groundwater storage makes it difficult to develop and implement the effective water management plans (Mondal et al. 2021; Seo et al. 2016). So, it's crucial to evaluate how groundwater supplies are changed by climate and land use.
Researches in past has provided frameworks for measuring the transformation in aquifer reserves. Water production, evapotranspiration (ET), rainfall, along with changes in utilization of land pattern driven on by increasing number of people, could all have an effect on the quantity of water that currently exist, as said by study of effects of climate change on availability of water (Nahib et al. 2021). According to a research, groundwater flow dynamics and groundwater recharge are both significantly impacted by anthropogenic land-use change. Similarly, research conducted in Cambodia concluded that temperature and precipitation have a significant influence on groundwater (Nahib et al. 2021). Several studies have used the SWAT model to look at how watershed's hydrological factors react to climate and land use changes (Buhay et al. 2022; Awan et al. 2014; Liu et al. 2020; Chunn et al. 2019; Lee et al. 2007; Joshi et al. 2021; Bal et al. 2021). According to researchers, on a global scale impact of climatic and land use alterations on groundwater is a significant problem (Abelaziz et al. 2020; Scanlon et al. 2006; Jyrkama et al. 2007; Graniel et al. 1999; Xia et al. 2019). Experimental techniques and chloride mass equilibrium methodologies are two tools that can be utilized for tracking effects of land utilization and climatic shift on local aquifer (Yenehum et al. 2021) Influence of land usage alteration on aquifers can be analyzed with the aid of satellite imagery, which is a valuable technology for observing large areas with little effort and financial investment in gathering information (Adhikari et al. 2020). Currently, the practice is feasible for carrying out extensive study that will educate urban planners about changes in groundwater and deterioration of the soil.
Bari Doab, which covers 29,000 km2 on Pakistani side of border and is situated between Sutlej and Ravi rivers, is among major landlocked districts in subcontinent. The research was carried in Bari Doab Canal (BDC) command region, one of Pakistan's key irrigation networks. Distributors are at the bottom of the administrative management structure of provincial irrigation departments. Bari Doab region comprises of Lahore, Kasur, Okara, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Khanewal, Multan and Lodhran regions. On its northwest and southeast corners, the BDC command area is situated 216 and 114 meters above sea level, respectively. The number of residents is currently a serious issue due to a recent considerable expansion. As the agricultural zone gets closer to zero, urban regions' patterns of land use are continually evolving. Both in urban and rural regions of the Bari Doab, groundwater is crucial to the region's expanding population. Due to extensive groundwater exploitation and quickly expanding metropolitan areas, Bari Doab is currently experiencing significant groundwater depletion. Rapid population growth and increasing demands for food and water resources have exacerbated the global issue of groundwater depletion. This study focuses on assessing the substantial decline in groundwater levels attributed to the combined impacts of land use alterations and climate change within the Bari Doab Canal region in Pakistan. Utilizing advanced models and projections from the latest climate datasets, the research aims to comprehensively understand the factors contributing to the decline in groundwater levels. The observed annual drop of 0.62 meters in the groundwater table over a 16-year period (2005–2020) and the simulation outcomes highlight the severe repercussions of anticipated land use and climate changes on groundwater dynamics. The overarching goal is to provide crucial insights that can inform policymakers and stakeholders in devising strategic adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse effects of these changes on the region's groundwater resources.
For an agriculturally complicated area where details are scarce, current study was designed with the aim of analyzing groundwater resources and looking at their dynamics. The specific objectives are (i) to (Conduct numerical simulations focused on the Bari Doab region to analyze the spatial and temporal fluctuations of groundwater dynamics. (ii) Investigate the influence of alterations in climate and land usage on groundwater behavior through comprehensive analysis. (iii) Quantify current and anticipated changes in evapotranspiration patterns resulting from climate shifts, aiming to understand their implications on groundwater resources. The findings from that inquiry can help us better understand how land use changes and climate have an impact on groundwater supplies. To establish strategies for climate adaptation in the area, the research needs to be examined by urban planners, municipality specialists, the irrigation department, and other government officials.