3.1 Immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs screening in PC patients
The study followed a specific flow chart, as depicted in Figure 1. Initially, the TCGA-PAAD database were utilized and a total of 16,876 lncRNAs were identified. A total of 83 immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs were screened when setting the criteria of p<0.001 and |cor|>0.6. The Sankey diagram of 79 immune checkpoint-related genes and immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs was presented in Figure 2.
3.2 Construction of immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs prognostic signature
To investigate the prognostic significance of these lncRNAs in PC, univariate Cox regression analysis was performed and identified 8 lncRNAs associated with PC patient prognosis in the training set. Forest plots were generated to illustrate these associations (Figure 3A). Subsequently, the initially identified lncRNAs underwent further screening using Lasso regression to reduce overfitting. The Lasso regression coefficient profiles were plotted (Figure 3B and C).
To construct a prognostic signature and evaluate the contribution of each lncRNA as prognostic factors in OS of PC patients, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed. Finally, a prognostic signature for PC was developed using 2 immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs, namely LINC02245 and AL008729.2. The risk score formula for this signature was determined as follows: risk score = (-2.37949091418402) × LINC02245 + (-0.313015834836748) × AL008729.2. Additionally, Figure 3D illustrates the relationships between the 2 immune checkpoint-related lncRNAs and the immune checkpoint-related genes.
3.3 Predicting the prognosis of PC patients with the prognostic signature
The survival analysis revealed that patients in the low-risk group had significantly better OS compared to those in the high-risk group (p< 0.001; Figure 4D). The risk score was found to be positively associated with mortality in PC patients, as demonstrated by the increasing mortality rates with higher risk scores (Figure 4A and B). This trend was consistent when analyzing the validation set and all patients (Figure 4E, F, H, I, J, and L). In the low-risk group, LINC02245 and AL008729.2 exhibited higher expression levels compared to the high-risk group across the training, testing, and whole sets (Figure 4C, G, and K), indicating that these immunecheckpoint-related lncRNAs may serve as good prognostic predictors. Furthermore, PFS was significantly better in the low-risk group compared to the high-risk group among all patients (p<0.001; Figure 4M). These results suggest that the prognostic signature developed in the study can effectively stratify patients into different risk groups.
Additionally, the survival probability and clinical features of PC patients were compared various clinical variables, including age, gender, and TNM stage. Apart from high-stage patients, high-risk patients consistently exhibited shorter OS compared to low-risk patients (Figure 5). One possible reason is that there were too few patients with advanced stage PC included in the analysis, leading to a lack of credibility in the obtained results.
3.4 The risk score could be a robust prognostic factor to predict clinical outcomes for PC patients
The risk score demonstrated its independent prognostic value for PC patients, as determined through both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses (Figure 5A and B). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed the area under the curve (AUC) to be 0.660, 0.666 and 0.692 for 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, indicating its predictive accuracy over time (Figure 5C). Furthermore, ROC curves were generated to compare the predictive performance of the risk score with various clinical characteristics. It was observed that the AUC of the risk score surpassed those of TNM staging, age, and gender, implying a relatively higher accuracy in prediction (Figure 5D). Additionally, the C-index values of the risk score were higher than those associated with other clinical characteristics, including age, gender, and disease stage (Figure 5E). Overall, these findings indicate that the risk score possesses independent prognostic significance for PC patients and exhibits a more accurate predictive power compared to other clinical characteristics evaluated in the study.
3.5 Nomogram
To enhance the precision of predicting patient survival rates, we devised a nomogram and employed it to construct a graphical representation (Figure 6A). Furthermore, we assessed the dependability of our predictive model by generating a calibration plot, which gauged the concordance between the predicted probabilities and the actual probabilities. The calibration plot demonstrated that the predicted probabilities obtained from the nomogram were in good agreement with the observed probabilities, thereby reinforcing the credibility of our nomogram (Figure 6B).
3.6 Functional enrichment analysis
GO analyses revealed that in terms of BPs, DEGs were significantly associated with " production of molecular mediator of immune response", "immune response-regulating signaling pathway" and "immunoglobulin production". Regarding CCs, enrichment was observed in "external side of plasma membrane", "plasma membrane signaling receptor complex" and "T cell receptor complex". Moreover, DEGs exhibited MFs related to "antigen binding", "receptor ligand activity", and "peptide binding" (Figure 7A and B). In addition, KEGG analysis demonstrated that DEGs were enriched in pathways such as "cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction", "neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction " and "chemokine signaling pathway" (Figure 7C). Specifically, GSEA exhibited that the "chemokine signaling pathway" and "cytokine cytokine receptor interaction" were activated in the low-risk group (Figure 7D). Conversely, in high-risk patients, significant enrichment was not observed.
3.7 Estimate the difference of immune microenvironment landscape between the high- and low-risk groups
In Figure 9A, it was found that the low-risk group had significantly higher stromal scores, immune scores, and ESTIMATE scores compared to the high-risk group. This indicates that low-risk patients have a higher abundance of stromal, immune activity, and immune cells in their tumor microenvironment. Apart from the type II IFN response and MHC class I, the levels of the other 27 immune signature gene sets were generally lower in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (Figure 9B). To further investigate the landscape of immune cell infiltration, the researchers employed the CIBERSORT algorithm. This algorithm provided information about the relative percentage of different immune cell types in the tumor samples of all PC patients. The low-risk group exhibited a significant increase in B cells naive compared to the high-risk group, while a significant decrease in Macrophages M0 was observed in the low-risk group compared to the high-risk group (Figure 9C). In addition, the relative percentage of each immune cell type in tumor samples of all patients with different risk groups was showed (Figure 9D).
3.8 Mutational landscape for PC and TIDE analysis
To analyze the changes in somatic mutations between the high- and low-risk groups, the researchers obtained somatic mutation data from the TCGA database. They identified the 15 most highly mutated genes in PC, which were KRAS, TP53, SMAD4, CDKN2A, TTN, MUC16, RNF43, TNXB, RYR1, TGFBR2, HECW2, ARID1A, CACNA1B, RIMS2, and GLI3 (Figure 9A and B). The analysis revealed that mutations in KRAS, TP53, SMAD4, CDKN2A, and GLI3 were evidently more common in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (Figure 10A and B). Additionally, the high-risk group exhibited a higher TMB than the low-risk group (Figure 10C). TMB refers to the number of mutations present in the tumor genome and is considered an indicator of genomic instability and potential response to immunotherapy. To assess the potential response to cancer immunotherapy, the researchers used the TIDE tool, which predicts the likelihood of response to immune checkpoint blockade therapy. Interestingly, when comparing the TIDE scores between the high- and low-risk groups, no significant difference in TIDE was observed (Figure 10D). In summary, high-risk patients may be more sensitive to immune checkpoint blockade therapy than low-risk patients, despite similar TIDE levels.
Furthermore, survival analysis demonstrated that patients with PC who had high TMB experienced significantly shorter survival times compared to those with low TMB, as shown by the Kaplan-Meier curves (Figure 10E). Within the PC patient population, those classified as high-risk with elevated TMB exhibited the shortest survival time, while low-risk patients with low TMB had the most favorable prognosis (Figure 10F). These findings suggest that TMB and the risk signature can potentially serve as prognostic indicators for PC patients and may help guide treatment decisions. Overall, the analysis indicates that high-risk patients with specific somatic mutations, such as KRAS, TP53, SMAD4, CDKN2A, and GLI3, have increased sensitivity to immune checkpoint blockade therapy, despite similar TIDE levels. Additionally, TMB and the risk signature can provide valuable prognostic information for patients with PC.