3.1 Characteristics of study sample
From January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019, 691 patients diagnosed with BC were studied at Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, 134 patients were excluded (66 patients without blood tests, 36 patients without immunohistochemistry, 15 patients without completed treatment, 6 patients with occult BC, 11 patients with other malignant tumors), and a 557 were included in the study. The clinicopathological characteristics and treatment are shown in Table 1. The age range of this cohort was 23-71 years. 460 (82.6%) patients were older than 40 years. 295 (53.0%) patients had a BMI higher than 24 kg/m². Patients were grouped according to clinical staging: 330 women had early BC (stage I, II), 227 women had locally advanced BC (stage III), and the majority of patients had stage IIb (40.3%, n=225). The most common molecular typing was HR(+)/ HER-2(-) (44.7%, n=249), 72 (12.8%) patients had HR(+)/ HER-2(+), 145 (26.2%) patients had HR(-)/ HER-2(+), and 91 (16.3%) patients had TNBC.
3.2 Analysis of serum LDH levels and clinicopathological features
Before BC patients underwent NAC, a total of 510 (91.6%) patients had serum LDH levels below 230 U/L, and after completing half of the chemotherapy cycles, the number of patients with high expression of serum LDH levels gradually increased to about 37.7%. At the end of the complete cycle of chemotherapy for routine preoperative examination, 246 (44.2%) BC patients were in a state of high serum LDH expression. The differences in age, menopausal status, BMI, clinical N-stage, HER2 expression, and molecular subtype were statistically significant (P < 0.05) for different serum LDH levels. In the present cohort, serum LDH levels were higher in older patients, but this phenomenon was not evident before chemotherapy. Regardless of the period of NAC, menopausal women possessed higher serum LDH levels than non-menopausal women. When the BMI of BC patients was between 24-30 kg/m², they had higher serum LDH levels than other women.
3.3. Association of clinical factors with pCR in the whole group
In the entire cohort, 113 (20.2%) BC patients achieved pCR, and 444 (79.8%) did not. Univariate analysis identified factors affecting the pCR rate after NAC in BC patients. Clinical T stage, ER expression, PR expression, HER-2 expression, KI67 expression, molecular typing, and serum LDH levels (Pre-NAC, Mid-NAC, and Preoperative) were strongly correlated with the pCR rate (P <0.05) (Table 2). However, there was no significant correlation between age, menopausal status, BMI, clinical N stage, lymphatic infiltration, and staging with pCR rate (P > 0.05). Regardless of the stage of treatment, the probability of achieving pCR was higher when patients had high expression of serum LDH levels (Pre-NAC: 31.9% vs. 19.2%, Mid-NAC: 27.6% vs. 15.8%, Preoperative: 24.4% vs. 17.0%, P < 0.05). Patients were more likely to achieve pCR when BC patients had low clinical T stage, negative ER expression, negative PR expression, positive HER-2 expression, and high KI67 expression. Patients were grouped according to molecular typing, and those with HR(-)/HER-2(+) were the most sensitive to chemotherapy (32.4%, n=47), compared to only 8.0% for HR(-)/HER-2(+).
Factors that were statistically significant in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariate analysis. Logistic regression analysis showed that clinical T stage, HER-2 expression, and Mid-NAC serum LDH levels were independent predictors of achieving pCR after NAC in BC patients (P < 0.05) (Table 3). Patients with high serum LDH level expression were more likely to achieve pCR than those with low expression (OR=1.601, CI 95% 1.004-2.552, P = 0.048). Patients with low clinical T stages had better outcomes with chemotherapy (OR=2.281, CI 95% 1.128-4.613, P = 0.022). The probability of obtaining pCR was higher when patients were negative for HER-2 expression (OR=2.114, CI 95% 1.319-3.386, P = 0.002).
3.4. Predictive analysis of BC patients achieving pCR or non-pCR
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used predictive model. We applied the ROC curve to predict the probability of achieving pCR or non-pCR after chemotherapy in BC patients. The clinicopathological characteristics statistically significant in the univariate analysis were selected for analysis (Figure 3 and 4). It was found that the probability of achieving pCR in patients with positive HER-2 expression was 63%, and there was a 57% probability of achieving pCR when the patient's KI67 > 15. After completing half of the cycles of chemotherapy, there was a 58% chance of achieving pCR in patients with serum LDH levels > 230 U/L (Table 4). In addition, we found that when ER and PR expression were positive, patients were insensitive to chemotherapy and less likely to achieve pCR. The difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05) (Table 5).
3.5. Construction of nomogram-based prediction of pCR in patients with BC
A nomogram is built based on logistic regression analysis, which integrates multiple predictors and then employs line segments with scales plotted on the same plane at a specific scale and is thus used to express the interrelationships among variables in the predictive model. We created a column-line graph based on the clinicopathologic characteristics of BC patients to predict the probability of achieving pCR when a BC patient undergoes NAC (Figure 5). HER-2 expression and clinical T stage greatly impacted on the patient's receipt of NAC and serum LDH levels before NAC and in the middle of NAC. We used ROC curves to assess the accuracy of the prediction model. As shown in Figure 6, the AUC was 0.732 (95% CI: 0.608-0.788), indicating that the prediction model had good predictive and judgmental power.
3.6. Evaluate the effect of chemotherapy according to RECIST criteria
Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) is a standardized method of measuring the response of solid tumors to treatment in clinical studies. Complete Response (CR): the disappearance of all targeted lesions. Partial response (PR): at least 30% reduction in the sum of the diameters of all targeted lesions compared to baseline. Progressed Disease (PD): at least a 20% increase in the sum of the diameters of all targeted lesions; Stable Disease (SD): not achieving PR, nor PD, and in between. Patients with high expression of serum LDH levels of Mid NAC were more likely to achieve CR, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.05).
3.7. Correlation between serum LDH levels and pCR was analyzed by PSM
The propensity score matching (PSM) method matches the two populations based on selected confounders, making the confounders as balanced as possible between the two populations, thus reducing the confounding effect of the confounders on the PSM was used to compare the pCR rate between YWBC and older groups with a matching tolerance of 0.02. Variables included age, menstrual status, ER expression, PR expression, HER-2 expression, clinical T stage, lymphatic infiltration, stage and KI67 expression. We performed PSM based on serum LDH levels at different treatment stages to obtain three separate sets of data (94 patients before NAC, 410 patients in the middle of NAC, and 479 patients in the preoperative period) with no difference in most baseline characteristics (P > 0.05) (Table 7). The pCR rate was significantly higher in patients with high expression of serum LDH levels than in those with low expression, both at any stage of NAC (P < 0.05) (Table 8).
3.8. Association between changes in serum LDH levels and pCR
Previously, we analyzed the effect of serum LDH levels on pCR in different treatment phases, and we went on to analyze whether changes in serum LDH affected the chemotherapeutic outcome of BC patients (Table 9). In this cohort, a total of 294 (52.8%) patients consistently had low expression of serum LDH levels, 30 (5.2%) patients consistently had high expression of serum LDH levels, and 233 (48.0%) patients had a change in serum LDH levels after receiving NAC (Low-to-high: 216 patients, High-to-low: 17 patients). Patients with consistently high expression were more likely to achieve pCR (33.3%), and the pCR rates of patients in the High-to-low and Low-to-high groups were 29.4% and 23.1%, respectively. All three groups were significantly more effective than the consistently low-expression group (16.3%), and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05).