An investigation of the agriculture vulnerability and risk from climate change in Liberia: an institutional-socio-economic-technological-system framework approach.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4205637/v1

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An investigation of the agriculture vulnerability and risk from climate change in Liberia: an institutional-socio-economic-technological-system framework approach.

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4205637/v1

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Climate change presents unprecedented challenges to the agricultural sector particularly in Africa where adaptive capacity and sensitivity are extremely low and high. Adequately addressing climate change risks and impacts in the agricultural sector through mainstreaming in the national development planning process is critical. Therefore, to plan and mainstream climate change into development planning processes, gaining an in-depth characterization of the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climate change is needed. To this end, we proposed an institutional, social, earth, economic and technical (ISEETS) framework based on the systems approach. Due to limited data, we constructed climate scenarios to present the earth subsector of the ISEETS and provided both theoretical and analytical analyses of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector. Based on the RCP4.5, the results showed that temperature would increase by a range of 1 to 1.25 ^oC. In terms of precipitation, it would increase by a range of 0.36–1.13%. Analysis of extreme events for precipitation indicated that the country would experience an increase in extreme precipitation of 3–14%, suggesting increased flooding in the country. From the ISEETS perceptive, the sector vulnerability could be amplified by the weak institutional, social, economic, earth, and technology subsectors. The study provided information that could help strengthen all aspects of the ISEETS to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Systems approach

climate change

risk

vulnerability

ISEETS framework

Climate change can be a major developmental challenge with profound impacts that can reverse societal gains made over the years. Stern (2016) has warned that the current projection of climate change and economic growth seriously underestimates the impacts. Past research has advocated for a new generation of models that will provide an accurate picture of the nexus between climate change and economic growth (Stern, 2016). For the agricultural sector in Africa, which is mainly rainfed and subsistence, the negative impacts on livelihoods can be exacerbated. Understanding and mapping the inherent climate change risks by sector are one of the prerequisites for the effective management of climate change risk. Tonmoy et al. (2019) stressed that assessing climate change risks is critical to any national adaptation planning process. Fundamentally, it allows for the mainstreaming of climate change risks in the planning and decision-making processes. Stern (2013) has also emphasized that underestimating climate change risk identification and planning could result in catastrophic damage to infrastructure and severe impacts to the country’s agriculture, water, and tourism sectors. Feng and Chao (2020) have also highlighted the importance of climate risk assessment, which has received attention from all the different spheres (academics, planners, and decision-makers).

Over the years, there has been a development of methodological approaches to assess climate change risks (Tonmoy et al, 2019; Feng and Chao, 2020). Climate change risk assessment originated from the climate change scenarios released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Tonmoy et al., 2019). It is important to note that climate scenarios have evolved along with climate science and continue to play a central role in climate change risk assessments.

Over time, there has been a shift towards vulnerability assessment to assess systemic exposures to climate change (Tonmoy et al. 2019). Vulnerability has been defined as “the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and are unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change” (Parry et al. 2007). Vulnerability may be multifaceted and influenced by a system’s exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Menezes et al., 2018; O’Brien et al., 2004). These variables have been observed to act jointly to determine a system’s vulnerability to climate change. The quantitative and integrated approach to assess vulnerability is the climate vulnerability index (CVI) (Menezes et al., 2018; Moss et al., 2001; Sullivan and Meigh, 2005). Figure 1 below depicts the relationship between climate change risk, impact, and vulnerability.

Figure 1. Climate change impact, vulnerability, and risk interface

Source: IPCC 2014

Additional comprehensive risk management approaches are based on the system approach. A system approach has been used to understand and optimize complex system functioning. It was first proposed in 1940 by Ludwig von Bertalanffy and termed ‘General System Theory’ and was formalized in 1968 (Skyttner, 1996). The approach considers a system as a dynamic and inter-related set of parts with a defined boundary. It is based on the notion that to understand a complex system, it is necessary to break it down into essentially easy units. Consequently, it is an approach that allows for superior evaluation of a system by assessing the linkages and interaction of various system components that constitute the system.

Recently, the system approach has gained traction as a powerful approach to understanding and management of climate risk to systems (Nikolaou, et al., 2015; Gitz and Meybeck, n.d.). For instance, Gitz and Meybeck (n.d.) demonstrated the applicability and robustness of the system approach on climate change risk to agricultural systems. Based on the system approach principles, Gitz and Meybeck (n.d.) focused on a system in terms of boundaries and components to support the holistic assessment of vulnerability and resilience. However, it is important to note that the application of the system approach to climate change risk assessment is limited to certain areas such as socio-ecological systems (SES), science technology and sustainability (STS), and institutional analysis and development (IAD). It is thus, critical that a framework be developed that recognizes all the variables to ensure a holistic and comprehensive risk assessment. The paucity of data in agriculture underlines the need to develop a novel framework that integrates institutional, social, earth, economic, and technological subsystems (ISEETS). The proposed framework can be applied to the agricultural sector to evaluate the climate change risks and how ISEETS variables interface and interact to define the risks.

The ISEETS has its foundation from the system approach which recognizes and considers that a system is dynamic and made up of functioning and inter-related set of parts. The approach can be used to analyze Anthropocene risk considering all the systems at a higher resolution by displaying the institutional, social, earth, economic, and technological subsystems (ISEETS) of a system. As such, through the application of the ISEETS any systems (agriculture, water supply, and health) can be defined and examined existing within the confines of institutional, social, earth, economic and technological subsystems. This is depicted in Fig. 2 below.

Figure 2. The ISEETS framework

The application of an ISEETS framework to assess and evaluate the Anthropocene risk has several advantages. It is holistic and therefore, this can enable an in-depth assessment of risks. Anthropocene risks such as climate change and associated risks are by nature amplified by institutional, social, economic, and technical subsystems. For instance, in the context of the Liberian agricultural sector, the risks posed by climate change can be amplified by institutional, social, economic, and technological factors. Technology has an influence on accessibility to markets through transportation and climate-resilient infrastructure, amongst others. Thus, through such linkages and interfacing, the ISEETS when applied can be an important approach to assess risks and inform policy formulation in reducing the climate impact factor from the institutional, social, economic, earth, and technological perspective. Therefore, the ISEETS framework foundation can be traced from the social-ecological system (SES). The area of emphasis for the SES is the emphasis on resource sustainability to ensure the flow of ecosystem services that support socio-economic production processes (Ostrom, 2007).

The agricultural sector plays a critical role in the development of Liberia. It is estimated that the sector employs approximately 80% of the workforce, of which more than 50% are women (Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, 2018). It accounts for 38.8% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) (International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), 2016; Jalloh et al., 2013). The four dominant agricultural systems in Liberia include the following:

Foreign commercial plantations dominated by rubber and palm oil production;
State-owned plantations operated by the Liberian Palm Products Corporation and the Liberian Cocoa and Coffee Corporation.
Commercial farms which are privately owned by residents producing industrial crops for both export and domestic markets; and,
Subsistence farming is characterized by small household farms (Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks, CEIGRAM, 2018)

The agricultural system of Liberia has forest-based farming with tree crop farming dominating the sector (CAADP, 2013). The predominant tree crops include rubber, palm oil, cocoa, and coffee. On the contrary, the leading cereal crops are millet, sorghum, cowpea, maize, and rice (CEIGRAM, 2018). The agricultural sector is characterized by shifting cultivation which has over the years converted large tracks of forests to farms and grassland (Jalloh et al., 2013). Despite the agricultural sector employing most of the workforce (80%), most farmers are as poor and resources-constrained, resulting in low capital input in the production process. Past research has indicated that the sector faces multiple challenges resulting in low-yielding crop varieties, high losses from pests, and diseases, as well as nutrient leaching and soil erosions due to excessive rainfall (Jalloh et al., 2013, Republic of Liberia, 2007). Most importantly, this results in the country being a net importer of grain mainly rice (Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, CAADP, 2013).

Additional current challenges within the agricultural sector include crop loss from flooding and post-harvest loss (CEIGRAM, 2018). It has been noted that factors that contribute to high post-harvest loss include inaccessibility to markets due to poor road infrastructure and reliable transportation. CEIGRAM (2018) noted that the risk of flood and post-harvest losses are assessed to be very high and high, respectively. Another challenging factor for the agricultural sector is the weak and uncoordinated institutions (CEIGRAM, 2018; CAADP, 2013). From an environmental perspective, there are challenges of environmental degradation and climate change, which present significant risks to the sector. Research has suggested that shifting cultivation and climate variability are the significant environmental threats affecting Liberian agricultural production (IFAD, 2016) over the short and long term. Despite the current challenges facing the agricultural sector, there are available opportunities that can be helpful to transform the economy and accelerate economic development. For instance, the potential of the agricultural sector to propel the economy stems from locally fertile soils, good climate conditions, adequate land, and abundant water resources (Zougmore et al., 2016; FAO and ECOWAS Commission, 2018). Moreover, the annual rainfall in the country is estimated to range from 1,700 mm in the north and over 5,000 mm in the south (CAADP, 2013; FAO and ECOWAS Commission, 2018). This presents an opportunity for the irrigation potential, which is estimated at 600,000 ha of which only 1,000 ha was developed (CAADP, 2013). It is estimated that less than 5 percent of the land is under permanent cultivation, and less than 1 percent is irrigated (FAO and ECOWAS Commission, 2018).

Subsequently, recognizing the huge untapped potential of the agricultural sector, the government has classified it as a major engine of growth to propel the economy to middle-income status (FAO and ECOWAS Commission, 2018; Zougmore et al., 2016). To propel the country forward and use the agricultural sector as a transformative sector, a holistic risk management approach must it employed. Such a risk management approach should ensure risks are appropriately identified.

In this study, we apply the ISEETS framework to the agricultural sector, which could assist the makers decision-makers and policymakers of Liberia to implement robust national adaptation planning that integrates climate change risks in the decision-making process. Our study provides a framework for sound and robust climate change adaptation and mitigation measures that will help the government to realize its vision, and this can be replicated in other countries which are experiencing similar conditions, and the agricultural sector is the mainstay of the economy.

3.1. The agricultural sector in the context of ISEETS

The agricultural sector is viewed as a system, which is dynamic with a well-defined set of components that interact within a defined boundary to meet the specific objective of food, fiber and the production of industrial commodities. It is indicated that the components of an agricultural system can be multifaceted and operate within the influence of the institutions, social, economic, earth, and technological subsystems (FAO, n.d.). On the contrary, the ISEETS subsystem’s components can have a major influence on the agricultural sector as evidenced in the Liberian context. For instance, as noted by CAADP (2013), weak institutions play a major role in low productivity in the sector. Additionally, weak land rights inhibit permanence in agricultural lands and prevent adequate agricultural investment (National Millennium Compact Development Project, 2013).

Furthermore, low technological development and investment are widespread in terms of using human capital while low levels of mechanization can play a role in low productivity (FAO and ECOWAS Commission, 2018; Zougmore et al., 2016). Similarly, the earth subsystem experiencing excess precipitation accompanied by a lack of management to control stormwater contributes to high crop loss due to flooding (CEIGRAM, 2018). The transport sector is also presenting a great challenge to be overcome by technology as it has a major role to play as it influences productivity through reliable access to markets. Similarly, farmers are not able to access credit to buy implements and inputs such as fertilizer and invest in irrigation. The agricultural system of the country within an ISEETS framework is depicted in Fig. 3.

Figure 3. The agricultural sector from an ISEETS perspective

4.1. Study area

The study was carried out in Liberia, West Africa, which is bordered by Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Cote D’Ivoire, and the Atlantic Ocean to its south-southwest. It covers approximately 111,369 Km², with a coastline stretching approximately 565 km (Wiley, 2005). It has a population of approximately 4.5 million with 50% of the population residing in urban cities, and Monrovia accounts for 30% of the national population (World Bank Group, 2018). The agricultural sector is the main employer in the country, employing over 80% of the workforce. It has been noted that the sector is characterized by shifting cultivation that is highly vulnerable to flood incidents, thus leading to huge crop losses (Jalloh et al., 2013). Since the agricultural sector has a great potential in driving the economy, the government developed a national five year (2011–2015) agricultural sector strategic plan to transform Liberian agriculture and maximize the sector’s contributions to economic growth, employment and income generation, food, and nutrition security, and poverty reduction (CAADP, 2013). However, the sector is faced with various challenges including environmental degradation and climate change (Zougmore et al., 2016). Due to environmental degradation, it is postulated that maintaining crops yields will be a challenge due to declining soil fertility (Zougmore et al., 2016).

4.2. Methods

A comprehensive mapping of the Anthropocene risk to agriculture an ISEETS framework, which a systems framework that assesses the climate risk by considering all the subsectors that influence the systems. was adopted. A desk review and observed indicators such as rainfall, flooding, and the transportation sector which represented technology, state of the institutions, economy based on GDP, and social subsectors were used to infer the baseline for the subsectors as represented by population growth and stability. Scenarios were constructed o assess the risk dynamic from climate change. The SimCLIM software was used to generate climate scenarios for precipitation and temperature for the year 2050. The software used an ensemble of 68 global circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) outputs based on the representative concentration pathways Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. The baseline data for the climate variables were obtained from various sources such as World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and regional centers etc. The generated climate scenarios were presented as maps, graphics, and tables to give a visual interpretation of the results. Furthermore, to model extreme riverine flood events, extreme event analysis for the precipitation was also derived.

Due to a lack of data, socio-economic scenarios were not constructed for the other ISEETS components. Thus, the analysis was limited to the earth subsectors components of agriculture. However, in the discussions and the recommendation, a holistic analysis is attempted which links all the agricultural components and how they will be affected by the earth subsector. A map was produced detailing the flood-prone areas for the country.

Flooding is one of the main climatic risks faced by the agricultural sector. As a starting point to analyze the climate risk to the agricultural sector, a flood-prone map for the country was constructed. The flood-prone areas for the country are depicted in Fig. 4. The flood-prone areas were derived based on Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI), which was recognized as the most suitable morphological indicator among those examined for preliminary mapping over large areas and under limited data conditions (Samela et al., 2017). It has been indicated that these methods represent a valid alternative to traditional hydrological/hydraulic modeling where detailed analyses are not possible due to limited data and/or resource availability (Albano et al., 2020).

To generate the flow accumulation and flow direction data, 90-meter spatial resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) data was applied. Thereafter, a QGIS plugin, the Geomorphic Flood Area tool (GFA tool) (Samela et al., 2017) was implemented to generate GFI. A threshold of -0.43 of normalized GFI was set, and the areas where GFI was greater than − 0.43 was identified as flood-prone area. Due to the lack of calibration and validation data for Liberia, this result is indicative, rather than accurate.

The flood-prone areas have implications on agricultural products’ accessibility to demand centers and for accessing ports for exports. As highlighted by Jalloh et al., (2013) accessibility to markets is one of the challenges facing the agricultural sector.

Figure 4. Riverine flood-prone area in Liberia under the current climate.

Temperature is another important climate variable that might pose risks to the agricultural sector (Schroth et al., 2016). As result, temperature changes can affect crop water requirements through changes in evapotranspiration (Schroth et al., 2016). Figure 5 depicts the baseline mean annual temperature and the mean temperature changes for 2050 based on RCP4.5 for the 50th percentile ensemble of climate models. Based on RCP4.5 by 2050, the mean temperature of the country is projected to increase by between 1^oC and 1.25^oC, with the greatest increases experienced in the further inland due to the moderating effect of the ocean. Lofa, Mimba, and part of the Grand Gedeh regions are expected to experience the highest temperature increase by 1.25 ^oC in 2050.

Figure 5. National baseline annual mean temperature and temperature changes from baseline for 2050 for the 50th percentile of an ensemble of GCM and RCM climate model outputs.

It is indicated that tree and arable crop agriculture in the country is predominately rainfed, with only 1 percent under irrigation (Jalloh et al., 2013). It is, therefore, important that precipitation and possible climate changes are analyzed. Figure 6 depicts annual precipitation and projected percentage changes from baseline of precipitation based on the 50th percentile of a 68-climate model ensemble of GCMs and RCMs under an RCP4.5 scenario by 2050. The model projected that increases in precipitation ranged from 0.36–1.13% from the baseline. The coastal line which generally receives the highest precipitation will experience the highest increase. This has significant implications for flooding and impacts on the crops, soil erosion, nutrients leaching, and accessibility to markets. However, in a global context, these rates of change from baseline are relatively minimal. There is also no evidence of a shift in the seasonality of precipitation across Liberia through to 2050 under the current scenario of analysis. This meant that the dry and wet seasonal months are expected to largely remain intact, and the dry season is unlikely to become longer or the wet season shorter or vice versa by 2050 under RCP 4.5. Although not depicted in this study, the 5th percentile of climate model outputs shows a slight drying of the rainfall patterns for the country on an annual basis while the 95th percentile shows a greater increase in precipitation than what is presented under the median scenario.

Figure 6. baseline and 2050 precipitation based on RCP 4.5

To assess flooding events, 100-year average recurrent interval (ARI) for extreme rainfall was modeled for 24 h, 48h, and 72 h events, which are shown in Figs. 7 to 9. The results indicated that the eastern part of the country might experience extreme rainfall events ranging between 143–197 mm while the coastal region can receive extreme precipitation from 274 mm to 517.

Figure 7. Baseline (1995) historical 24 100 ARI extreme precipitation across Liberia

Figure 8. Baseline (1995) historical 48h 100 ARI extreme precipitation across Liberia

Figure 9. Baseline (1995) historical 72h 100 ARI extreme precipitation across Liberia

The 100 ARI extreme precipitation was also modeled for 2050 to assess flooding dynamics for the RCP 4.5 scenarios applying the 50th percentile outputs for an ensemble of 22 daily GCM patterns (Li and Ye, 2011). Figures 10 through 12 depict the 2, 48h, and 72h 100 ARI extreme precipitation of the country. The results indicated that the country would experience an increase in extreme precipitation based on 24-, 48- and 72-hour ARI precipitation. The percentage change increase is projected between 3.2–14%. The results indicated that Lofa, Gbarbolu, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi regions would experience the highest increase in extreme precipitation of between 10 to 14%. For the 72-hour ARI 100 extreme precipitation, the coastal region, which is flood-prone, could experience an increase of 4.1 to 6% in precipitation over the three days.

Figure 10. 50th percentile 24h ARI 100 extreme precipitation change by 2050 under RCP 4.5

Figure 11. 50th percentile 48h extreme precipitation change by 2050 under RCP4.5

Figure 12. 50th percentile 72 ARI 100 extreme precipitation change by 2050 under RCP4.5

The results from the earth subsector of the ISEETS high-level agricultural assessment represent the risk of climate change to the agricultural sector in Liberia. These results are presented as the climate scenarios based on the 50th percentile ensemble outputs for the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050. Based on the results, climate change could present heightened risks to the agricultural sector through changes in temperatures and precipitation.

The climate scenarios indicated that temperature could increase by a range of between 1.0 to 1.25 ^oC by 2050. This showed that the eastern parts of the country and farthest from the coast are likely to experience the highest increase in annual average temperatures relative to the other parts of the country (Fig. 4). Thus, there will be a more gradual temperature increase along the coastal zone owing to the moderating effect of the ocean. Coincidentally, the eastern corridor of the country which will experience the greatest increase in temperatures also receives the lowest precipitation in the country (Fig. 5). Thus, an increase in temperature could result in an increase in evapotranspiration which could result in a water crop deficit for some crops (cereal and tree crops). Therefore, climate change in the country could result in moderate aridity due to an increase in temperature, evapotranspiration, and drought incidents.

Another risk from the earth subsystem will be through changes in precipitation. Climate scenarios for precipitation indicated that Liberia would experience an increase of between 0.36 to 1.13% depending on the region. This represents a decline of 6.12 to 19.21 mm for a region that already received the lowest precipitation in the country (1700 mm) and an 18mm to 56.5mm for coastal regions, which received the highest precipitation. Thus, the projected precipitation change is between 6.12 mm to 56.5 mm. For the low rainfall regions, climate change could present an opportunity due to an increase in rainfall. However, with increased temperatures it is likely, although SPEI assessments were not conducted from this region, could experience greater aridity as higher temperatures. For the coastal regions which received the highest precipitation, climate change could bring incidence flooding events, soil erosion, and leaching of the nutrients.

To assess the risk of flooding and how it will change with climate change, an extreme event analysis was undertaken. The baseline extreme precipitation based on the 24h, 48h, and 72h indicated that the country receives extreme rainfall of 439–517 mm per day in the coastal zone. These areas included populated zones that coincided with some of the most flood-prone areas of the country. Based on RCP 4.5, extreme precipitation events are likely to increase in intensity by a range of 3.2–14% depending on the region and the length of the event (from 1 to 3 days of accumulated rainfall). For the 24 hours and 48-hour ARI 100 extreme precipitation, Lofa, Nimba, Gbarbolu and Grand Cape Mount regions will experience an increase of 10–14%. Some of the regions were already experiencing unprecedented flooding events. Therefore, climate change impacts could even be more significant for the agricultural sector. For the 72-hour ARI 100 experience precipitation, the coastal areas which are already experiencing regular and devastating flooding events could experience an increase of at least 4-to 6% from the baseline values.

Annual rainfall and extreme events for Liberia are both likely to increase. This could impact negatively on the agricultural sector in three ways. Firstly, the flood-prone areas also access points to major agricultural demand centers and important transportation routes to the ports for imports of technology and exports of production. Thus, climate change presents greater risks of inaccessibility to the markets. Flooding can also lead to greater post-harvest losses due to inaccessibility to markets (CEIGRAM 2018). Thus, with projected increases in extreme precipitation for 24-, 48- and 72-hour periods, the risks of flooding of agricultural fields, and access roads to the markets are likely going to increase significantly.

Secondly, the inherent risk of an increase in extreme precipitation is soil erosion and leaching of the soil nutrients. Given that the agricultural sector is mainly based on shifting cultivations (Jalloh et al., 2013), deforestation could worsen soil erosion and riverbed siltation in the country.

The risks posed by climate change to the agricultural sector will be amplified or dampened by the state of the social, economic, institutional, and technological subsystems. For instance, improved institutional and climate-proofed technology in the country could result in climate-resilient transportation infrastructure and flood management regimes that reduce the impacts of flood and post-harvest losses in agriculture.

Similarly, improved technology could result in smart agriculture practices and ecosystem-based solutions, which can reduce incidents of flooding and soil erosion. However, for the country to embrace appropriate technology and strengthen its institutions, there is an urgent need to build the economy which is a major determinant of other subsectors. Achieving economic growth and development will ensure that the country and its farmers to afford and access technology for climate-resilient interventions.

This study presented the ISEETS framework for the agricultural sector to demonstrate that risks to the sector are an interaction of factors from the institutional, social, earth, economic, and technological subsystems (ISEETS) of a system. The results indicated that system vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is influenced by the ISEETS variables. Therefore, ISEETS can be used as a lens to define the agricultural systems’ adaptive capacity, exposure, and sensitivity. For the agricultural sector in Liberia, there is low technological adoption as shifting cultivation prevails, along with low uptake of irrigation infrastructure and range of soil fertility maintenance and enhancement opportunities represented by smart and regenerative agriculture. In addition, farmers are resource-constrained and thus find it difficult to undertake investments that will improve their adaptive capacity to climatic variability. For the resource-constrained farmers, this is further hampered by ongoing poor economic performance.

The finding of this study is that climate change will present a risk to the agricultural sectors mainly from increased precipitation and flooding. The risks of flooding and increased precipitation present challenges of soil erosion, nutrients leaching, and crop losses. Since the country is already faced with the challenges of flooding, low soil nutrients and post harvests losses, climate change could worsen these risks. The current climatic-related risks to the agricultural sector are however exacerbated by the state of the institutional, social, earth, economic, and technological subsystems.

Accordingly, for the country to reduce its agricultural vulnerability to climate change, there is a need for concerted efforts to improve the institutional, social, earth, economic, and technological subsystems. Improving these subsectors will ensure that the country invests in climate-resilient interventions such as climate-smart agricultural practices and ecosystem-based adaptation intervention. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure that the country invests in climate-resilient transport systems to facilitate agricultural crop accessibility to domestic and foreign markets. One of the current challenges faced by the farmers is a lack of access to markets which results in post-harvest crop loss.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Funding

“The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.”

Author Contribution

SM, PU, YL: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology. PU& YL: Formal analysis, Writing - original draft. DMM: Writing - review & editing. All authors reviewed the manuscript

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No competing interests reported.

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An investigation of the agriculture vulnerability and risk from climate change in Liberia: an institutional-socio-economic-technological-system framework approach.

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Abstract

Figures

1. Introduction

2. Conceptual framework- The ISEETS framework

3. The agricultural sector in Liberia

3.1. The agricultural sector in the context of ISEETS

4. Materials and methods

4.1. Study area

4.2. Methods

5. Results

6. Discussion

7. Conclusion

Declarations

Declaration of Competing Interest

Funding

Author Contribution

References

Additional Declarations

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