Descriptive analyses
Demographic and socio-economic characteristics
Table 1 shows that, overall, the survey population is almost balanced in terms of sex and predominantly aged 25–64 years. With 98% of the sample being black African, our sample is almost homogeneous in terms of race. A third (33%) of our sample lives alone. In terms of education levels, only 1% of the sample reported having no formal education and the largest share (43.3%) reported having matriculated from high school. About 70% of the population is unemployed, with approximately 38% receiving a government grant, and 31% reported having at least one medical condition. Concerning socioeconomic status, approximately 1 in every 5 respondents in our sample has only between zero and two assets. About 38% of the sample receive a government grant. The share of people who reported being victims of crime was 10%. Almost half (45%) of our sample reported that their partners were violent.
There are, however, differences in the distribution of our variables by site. Melusi recorded the smallest share (2.8%) of people with education above matric, the largest share (58.9%) of people actively looking for jobs but not employed, and more than 50% of households are one-person. The smallest share (5%) of people who were victims of crime and the largest share (52.3%) of people who had violent partners were recorded in Melusi. Melusi had more people with less than two assets and no people with more than six assets. As an informal settlement, Melusi is one location where people live when they first move to the city from rural or peri-urban areas. Mostly on their own, with few assets, and without support from nearby family or friends, residents are actively looking for jobs.
Our analysis shows that Hillbrow had the largest share (67%) of people with matric and more education, the largest proportion (53.4%) of people aged 18 and above who were employed, and the smallest share (13.5%) of people receiving government grants. The largest share (18%) of people who reported being victims of crime and the smallest share (28.4%) of people with violent partners were recorded in Hillbrow. Hillbrow had no people with fewer than three assets, and more people (46%) at the higher end of the socioeconomic status measure (7–9 assets). In relation to comorbidities, Hillbrow had the largest share (18.3%) of people reporting at least two medical conditions. (This may reflect differences in health-seeking behaviour among the sites. For example, Hillbrow as an inner-city site has better access to health care services, and these may result in more people seeking healthcare and subsequently getting diagnosed with their medical conditions.)
Atteridgeville recorded the smallest share (0.1%) of people with fewer than three assets, and more people (5.1% of the sample) aged 65 and above. In relation to employment status, the smallest share (22%) of people were employed, and the largest share (33.4%) of people who were unemployed but not actively looking for jobs were recorded in Atteridgeville. Given the age, and the employment status distribution, Atteridgeville understandably had the largest share (48.2%) of people who received government grants. Also, Atteridgeville is a well-established township where people are likely to have their official documentation, and so can access grants.
Mental health and other changes during COVID variables
Across all three sites, around 60% of respondents reported no changes in perceptions of isolation, anxiety, and depression, whilst 20–24% reported worsening, and around 18% reported improvements (17.5–18.4%), in each of the three domains. The mental health of respondents in Melusi was more likely to remain constant (65–68%), compared to the other sites (45–63%). In Atteridgeville people were more likely to report worsening anxiety and worsening depression, while isolation was more of a problem in Hillbrow (25% compared to 18% in Melusi and 20% in Atteridgeville).
When combining the three mental health domains into ‘better’ or ‘worse’, across all sites, 11% reported improvements in all three domains, and 13% reported a worsening in all domains. In comparison to Atteridgeville (11%) and Melusi (8%), people in Hillbrow (14%) were more likely to report improvements, and less likely to report things getting worse, in all three mental health domains.
In the disaggregated analyses by sex (data not presented here), we found that women were more likely to report both improvements - and worsening in isolation, anxiety, and depression. This means that women dominated the extreme ends of the three mental health domains scale. Men were more likely to report that their isolation, anxiety, and depression levels remained the same as pre-COVID-19 levels.
Across all three sites, around 60% of respondents reported no change in community violence. Respondents in Hillbrow were more likely to have perceived community crime as worsening during COVID-19 (43% compared to 22% in Atteridgeville and 5% in Melusi), matching the higher numbers of people reporting being a victim of crime in Hillbrow.
The proportion of people reporting worries during the pandemic
As shown in Table 2 below, 55–63% of respondents were very or extremely worried about employment, crime, children’s education, meeting basic expenses, and catching COVID-19, whilst 28–34% were not worried or were only a little worried. Overall, being alone was the least of the worries recorded in our sample, with the worry about catching COVID-19 the highest. Compared to Atteridgeville and Hillbrow, people in Melusi were less likely to be very, or extremely, worried about other things except for not having a job. As previously highlighted by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of our sample, people in Melusi are focused on getting jobs, such that isolation is less of a concern.
Regression results
Regression results by site
In this analysis (presented in Table 3), we restricted our sample to those who responded to all three mental health questions. In Models 1 to 4, we present factors associated with improving mental health during the pandemic. We found that being female, being older than 16–24 years, being employed, being from a household of three, not having other diagnosed medical conditions, perceiving less community violence, and not being a victim of crime were associated with increased odds of improved mental health during the pandemic in our study population (Model 1). Education, socioeconomic status, having a non-violent partner, and residence (site) had no significant effects on improving mental health.
In Melusi (Model 2), being aged between 55 and 64, not having other diagnosed medical conditions, and perceiving less community violence were associated with increased odds of improved mental health during the pandemic. Being aged 55 to 64 and perceiving less community violence were the only two factors significantly associated with increased odds of improved mental health during Hillbrow (Model 4). In Atteridgeville (Model 3), being female, being older than 16–24 years, being employed, being from households of two and three, not having other diagnosed medical conditions, perceiving less community violence, not being a victim of crime, and having a non-violent partner were associated with increased odds of improved mental health during the pandemic.
Models 5 to 8 present factors associated with worsening mental health. We found that being older than 24 years, not receiving any government grant, being from a household of two, having more assets, having more diagnosed medical conditions, perceiving less community violence, having a violent partner, and being from Melusi (as compared to being from Hillbrow) were associated with increased odds of worsening mental health (Model 5). We did not find significant sex, education, employment status, and crime gradients in the odds of worsening mental health.
In regressions by sites, we found that in Melusi receiving a grant had a protective effect, but being female, being older, having a violent partner, and living with a larger number of people increased a person’s vulnerability, as did having a greater number of assets. In Atteridgeville, having a greater number of assets, and living in a large family had a protective effect. However, being older, and being unemployed increased the odds of worsening mental health. In Hillbrow, having a violent partner, unexpectedly, was associated with lower odds of worsening mental health.
Interestingly, results presented in Table 3 also suggest that the factors that make the three self-reported mental health domains seem worse are not the inverse of the factors that make things better. For example, whilst being older was associated with improved mental health in the full study sample (Model 1), it was also associated with worsening mental health (Model 5). Being unemployed and being a victim of crime made respondents less likely to say their mental health got better, but it also did not mean that they would say that their mental got worse. Understandably, grants are associated with people being less likely to say things got worse, but they are not associated with things getting better. Whilst there was a sex profile in the odds of improving mental health in the study population, sex was non-significant in explaining worsening mental health in the study population. We, found, however, that being female increased the odds of both improving mental health and deteriorating mental health in Melusi.
Regression results by sex
Because women’s responses were clustered mainly at the extreme ends of the mental health spectrum, we also wanted (in Table 4) to find if mental health for men and women was explained by the same factors. Regarding reporting improved mental health, among women (Model 1), being older, having a non-violent partner, and living in a larger household increased the odds of reporting better mental health, but having primary education only, being unemployed, having diagnosed medical conditions, and reporting increases in community violence decreased the odds. Men who reported improved mental health were more likely to be aged above 65, less likely to receive a grant, more likely to report less community violence, and more likely to have a greater number of assets (Model 2).
Regarding reporting worse health, women who reported worsening mental health were older, less likely to receive a grant, but more likely to have more assets, more likely to have a violent partner, more likely to be from a bigger household, more likely to have a diagnosed medical condition (Model 3). Men who reported worsening mental health were likely to be 25–64 years old, live in a household of two, and have a greater number of assets (Model 4). Concerning socioeconomic status, a high number of assets increased the odds of worse mental health for both men and women. Except for a modest effect on women’s improved mental health, we did not, in general, find significant associations between education levels and mental health.