3.1 Factors contributing to flooding in the Tamale Metropolis
Flood Incidence
The regression model result depicts that there is a positive association between flood incidence and an increase in flooding in Tamale Metropolis. The coefficient which is (1.678) indicates that as flood incidence increase, the flooding in the metropolis will also increase. The extremely low p-value of 0.00 was found to suggest that flood incidence is a highly significant predictor of flooding in our flood modelling (See Table 3). This can be interpreted as flooding linked to the increment in flood happenings also increases the probability of occurrence of flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The revelation that there is a direct association between flood frequency and flood occurrence in Tamale city is useful and similar to previously published results. The example of a study on the flooding consequences on social services in Tamale Metropolis by Ghana Capitalizes on wiping away any doubt about the presence of floods in some areas in Ghana and the fact that flooding events result in socio-economic effects. The flooding events in the city now are a result of both natural forces like an increase in temperature and rainfall escalated by climate change and man-made problems, including inappropriate land use and uncontrolled center construction. Beside, finding out floods damage regression models in other areas and also using logistic regression for extraction of flood area shows a role of regression analysis in knowing as well as predicting flood-related phenomena (Youssef, Pradhan & Sefry, 2016). Such studies focus on the issue of pinpointing the actual ties between the various determinants and flooding. Its strategy does not deviate from the methodology applied in the regression study for the Youssef, Pradhan and Sefry, (2016).
Infrastructure
The generally positive coefficient (0.789) attached to infrastructure in the regression model reinforces the fact that it is highly correlated to increased flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The observed p-value of 0.025, which is less than the higher critical value of 0.05, concludes that this variable is statistically significant. (Please refer to the last table in the question for results of tests). It is hinted that the condition of infrastructure is what leads to flooding in one way or the other in the Tamale Metropolis. The infrastructure-flooding relationship in an urban setting like the Tamale Metropolis is a pivot point for urban planners and disaster risk mitigation. This implies that successful companies are likely to have leadership and management teams that are mutually supportive and work cooperatively. The result of this indicate the general patterns of the study on infrastructure and the flood hazards in city centers. Ridha, Ross, and Mostafavi (2022) study on the impact of the climate change on infrastructures and flood risk perceptions in coastal urban are showed the public perception of flood risk in consideration to the plan and age of city infrastructure. As a result, research on the impacts of flooding on the built environment and infrastructure throughout the world have pointed out that the flood impacts ravaged housing, business, learning, health, and other necessary facilities (Dong et al., 2020; Espada, Apan & McDougall, 2017). The social services effects of flooding in Tamale Metropolis equally underline the causes and the socioeconomic impacts of floods, such as weather change, improper land management and unplanned development brains a major contributor to flooding.
Land Use
The positive sign of the coefficient (0.567) in the regression, specifying land use as the independent variable, reveals a positive relationship between certain kinds of land use and the degree of flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The p-value below 0.05 and 0.018 for this model implies that the connection between land use and flooding has a statistically significant meaning (See Table 3). Resources regression analysis outputs concur with what has already been researched on the cause of flooding in Tamale Metropolitan area. Flooding in Tamale Metropolis illustrates the damages caused by substandard land use and poor settlement planning (Kayaga & Laskunerver, 2021). This only goes to show that the patterns of land use do play in important role in the flood risk in the urban place.
As a result, an article on land use planning as a tool for environmental management in the metropolitan area of Tamale stress the strategic use of the planned land use and regulations in order to help in urban human settlement development (Fuseini, 2016). In the long run – poor planning and absence or weak regulations for land use would lead to devastation of the environment and maybe to creation of the flood risk conditions. Furthermore, the research on urban development in Ghana especially Tamale, and the type of urban governance response indicates the challenges and implications to undertake such a growth in urban infrastructure in rapidly growing metropolitan districts like the one in Tamale. It becomes that innovative this expansion carries can lead to increased flood risks in the urban area. Land uses’ effect on flooding is also proved by the studies of how land use control measures and practices cause flooding risk in the urban areas of Ghana. The studies draw the attention towards the fact that land use control procedures and practices shall create flood hazard with the demand to control the flood risk in urban areas through the adoption of effective and workable land using control.
Income Status
A positive correlation coefficient (0.678) found in the regression model indicates that there is a positive relationship between incomes and flooding in Tamale Metropolis, that is, high-income status is associated with more flooding. As can be seen from Table 3, the percentage of income is such a crucial predictor of flooding that the p-value is 0.000 (highly significant). Privileged people in socio-economy and natural conditions are more involved in links between income status and flooding. A study by Kayaga et al. (2021), on the effect of flooding on social services in Tamale Metropolis, Ghana reiterates the social and economic effects of floods in the Metropolis, namely, loss of lives and property, and the entities that run the current transport system encounter inhibition, financial and health problems to inhabitants of flood-prone areas. However, this illness depends less on the place individuals and communities are being affected at whatever income level are supposed to exist in Tamale Metropolis. This study, which is on characterizing urban growth in Kumasi, Ghana, then concentrates on the rapid urbanization and population growth that is a hallmark of the dynamics in the Tamale metropolitan area and can exert pressure on infrastructural as well as service provision that may also influence the risk of flooding (Amoateng, 2016). These centres of urbanization will be with a new category of the income difference or income-specific vulnerability to flooding within the Metropolis.
Water Supply System
The negative (-0.234) coefficient associated with the existence of a source of ready and safe water in the regression model means that the availability of a reliable water system will lower the levels of flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. At the small level of p value of 0.005, the water resource management is perceptibly significant, suggesting water supply system may well be a reliable water allocation for flood mitigation (See Table 3). The linkage of unfailing and safe water supply networks and high-flooding to Tamale Metropolis contributes to the proper knowledge of flood risk and resilience. Hence the negative coefficient is when adequate water provisions encourage lower chances of flooding in places thus ascertained. What it means is that the Goal of water infrastructure to be part of the solution of disastrous floods is brought into question as well. Ghana Water Company Limited that the new water facility comprises of White Volta River intake and water treatment plant with the required infrastructure as an entity is aimed to provide treated water to the Tamale Metropolitan area. Another major argument is that the escalating flow of water from the rivers on the other hand may result to flooding. The accessibility of sustainable water infrastructure is imperative for addressing the ever-growing urban demands for water, and it might be helpful in reducing the risk of city areas flooding.
Sanitation Facilities
The estimation of regression model elucidates the fact that the positive coefficient (0.567) associated with the operation of sanitation facilities implies the evidence of increased flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The very low p-value which was calculated as 0.001 itself highlights the significance of sanitation facilities to the general population (i.e. it shows they an effective predictor of flooding; see Table 3). It is crucial to consider the interaction of the used sanitation facilities and flooding in urban planning and environmental management as it is true in the case of Tamale Metropolis. The environmental sanitation crisis in the Tamale municipality, Ghana stresses the issues regarding environmental sanitation such as residents’ poor attitudes concerning environmental sanitation, weak institutional capacity and environmental sanitation negative impact on the city (Napari & Cobbinah, 2014). The scientists claim that unclean water and poor sanitation have great roles in increased floods and water pollution, hence, the health problems. More significantly, the positive coefficient that is also statistically significant in health of sanitation facilities in the model compel us to look at and handle sanitation challenges that are environmental in nature in order to curtail flood risk within Tamale Metropolis.
Transportation Network
The (-0.789) coefficient in the regression model with the disruption in the transport network is a negative number thus lit disruption in the transport is associated with the increase of flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The highly insignificant p-value of 1 reduces its chance to influence the effectiveness of flood combat by 1% meaning that the network is a significant factor for a better flood mitigation. (See Table 3). The Transportation network and flooding in Greater Tamale are a fundamental thing to consider when urban planners and builders are trying to design and construct disaster resistant and sound cities. Road closures, accidents bridges, and imposable over paths hamper spreading of emergency work, evacuation actions, and decrease the status of essential commodities and services. The destruction of the transport system which is among the socioeconomic impacts of the floods in the Metro is one of the facets that has affected the lives of the people in the Tamale Metropolis.
The research shows the things people deal with as a result of these disasters including the loss of transportation, adverse financial situation and the health problems. This proves clearly that a good transportation network supports critical services and smooth out help that comes during flood events in the Tamale metropolis. In the same way, the flooding experienced during heavy rainfall in Tamale Metropolis and Sagnarigu municipality paralyzed transportation, thus roadblocks for conveying people, and the movement of commodities and goods within the affected areas was affected. The negative coefficient and statistical significance of the transportation network in the regression model underscore the importance of resilient transportation infrastructure in flood risk management and disaster response.
Low-Lying Area
The positive coefficient (0.345) associated with being located in a low-lying area in the regression model suggests that being situated in a low-lying area is associated with increased flooding in the Tamale Metropolis. The low p-value of 0.004 indicates that the variable is statistically significant, highlighting the importance of the topographical factor in flood risk assessment (See Table 3). Low-lying areas are particularly susceptible to flooding due to their lower elevation, which result in the accumulation of water during heavy rainfall or flood events. The topographical characteristics of low-lying areas make them particularly vulnerable to flooding, especially in the absence of efficient drainage systems and flood mitigation measures (Ofori, 2023).
Land Use Pattern
Land use pattern is positively correlated with the regression model to the extent of 0.678 coefficient, which indicates that land use types of the Tamale Metropolis are associated with excessive flooding in the city. P-value, being less than 0.007, mean, that land use pattern is effectively significant among the factors to produce high floods (See Table 3). The grab of the nature's ecosystem causes the change the in the amount and severity of the flooding by means of decreasing the natural hydrological cycle, increasing the runoff, and reducing the infiltration. As poor land use practices such as unorganized and uncontrolled urbanization, deforestation and agricultural expansion increase, the contributed flooding risk rises due to the natural environment modification which, in turn, contributes to the increase in the vulnerability of the local communities to flooding.
A study in Tamale Metropolitan Area on the Use of land Planning in providing Environmental management, highlighted the significance of the planning and regulation of human settlements, in efforts to evade environmental degradation and unruly human settlement development (Pogbekuu, 2010). The researcher urged implementation of an elaborate policy for environmental conservation, and land use planning for urbanization issues that affect Nairobi City. Secondly, another research by Fuseini and Kemp (2016), dealing with urban growth in Ghana's Tamale, discloses the infrastructural development challenges in this urban area due to inadequate resources and inefficiency in the government response to the issues of poor services including water supply, sanitation and waste management. The study suggests that this can be accomplished by putting in place sound urban governance systems and storm water management mechanisms to support sustainable urban growth and minimize the potential loss of lives through flood.
Policies or Regulations
The positive figure (0.456) related to the presence of policies or regulations in the regression model that results from the computation is interpreted as an increase in flooding in the Tamale metropolis attributable to the existence of policies or regulations. Notably, at p-value being 0.000, the variable is extremely significant, thus, suggesting a further investigation about the current policy setups in flood management (As per Table 3). While policies and legislations play an important part in mapping plans connected with land use planning, infrastructure development and disaster risk reduction in order to thwart flood risk and highlight urban resilience, they all have a collective role to play.
This resonate that the policies and regulations can help in making the built environment resilient so that it can adapt when floods occur while taking into account the nature of different stakeholders' attributes deciding the severity of flood damages (Armah et al., 2010). Through their effectiveness in terms of policymaking and regulations, conditions and integrity in built infrastructure are determined and, as a result, communities are shaped as being either vulnerable or resilient to floods and other environmental risks. A positive and highly significant coefficient for the enforcement/regulatory variables in the regression model bring out policy as one of the important governance and regulatory frameworks in the management of flood risks and urban planning. These findings can be used to provide the basis to specifically develop intervention strategies and policy measures intended to enhance the effectiveness of the existing regulations and policies in regard to the reduction of flood risks and ensuring the resilience of the Tamale Metropolis in overcoming the challenges of environmental vulnerability.
Government Agencies
The positive sign (0.211) to the governmental bodies in the regression equation emphasizes them to be correlated with more floods in Tamale Metropolis. The p value being 0.045 (look at Table 3) which is less than the imputed significance level of 0.05 (see Table 3) stands for the fact that the variable is statistically significant. Government authorities being in charge of disaster risk management, urban design and infrastructures, either through their policies or the lack of them, end up leading to the higher exposure of communities to floods. Studies, such as one by Songsore (2020), highlight problems that urban growth in Ghana is confronting with urban authorities response – mainly by being unable to provide infrastructure and service provision on time, for example water supply, sanitation and waste management services. The study suggests that there is an imperative call for functional municipal government and appropriate infrastructure development to manage urban expansion. Moreover, this would reduce the vulnerability of the communities to environmental risks such as flooding. The positive slope and statically significant coefficient of government agencies in the regression model clearly reflect the role of a sound governance and regulation in reducing the extent of flood risks and the process of urban development. Hence, the resource allocation managers could capitalize on this knowledge and target interventions and policy measures that dominate the entire improvement of the effectiveness of government agencies in addressing flood vulnerability and increasing the resilience of the Tamale Metropolis to environmental hazards.
The coefficient of determination (R-squared) and the R-adjusted value are the means to assess the model's overall fit, the results are respectively 0.745 and 0.720. The values arrived at indicate that the percentage variation of the independent variables can be accounted for 74.5% through the specific independent covariates. The F-statistic of 29.43 is significantly high (p-value is 0.000), and the conclusion might be useful to the model fitted for the data. R-squared is the value that measures exactly the portion of the dependent variable variance that is being explained by the constant variables in the model, namely the independent variables. In such situation, data values of R-squared of the variables 0.745 (within the range of 0 to 1) informs about 74.5% of variation in the dependent variable and is therefore considered as a quite strong relationship within the independent and dependent variables. R-squared Adjustment is the same as R-squared, except for the number of independent variables in the model or over fitting and over adjustment problems. An Adjusted R^2 value of 0.720 suggests that the model is instead a good fit for the data since it is a much higher value than the unadjusted R^2 value of 0.669. This indicates that the addition of the individual variables is indeed helping with fitting the model and is furthermore reducing the risk of over fitting. The enormously meaningful F-statistic of 29.43 (p-value = 0.000) also suggest that the model is applicable to the data, as the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable (desirability), according to the latter (See Table 3).
Table 3
OLS Regression Results on factors contributing to flooding in the Tamale Metropolis
Variable | Coefficient | Standard Error | t-value | P-value |
Intercept | 2.345 | 0.567 | 4.134 | 0.001 |
Flood Incidence | 1.678*** | 0.234 | 7.189 | 0.000 |
Infrastructure | 0.789 | 0.345 | 2.287 | 0.025 |
Topography | -0.234 | 0.178 | -1.314 | 0.192 |
Land Use | 0.567 | 0.234 | 2.423 | 0.018 |
Community Awareness | -0.789* | 0.456 | -1.732 | 0.085 |
Age of respondent | -0.147 | 0.105 | -1.400 | 0.162 |
Sex of respondent | -0.092 | 0.076 | -1.211 | 0.227 |
Income status | 0.678*** | 0.123 | 5.512 | 0.000 |
Educational status | 0.104 | 0.089 | 1.168 | 0.244 |
Economic development initiatives | -0.008 | 0.102 | 0.078 | 0.938 |
Water supply system | -0.234** | 0.078 | -2.987 | 0.005 |
Sanitation facilities | 0.567*** | 0.145 | 3.897 | 0.001 |
Transportation network | -0.789*** | 0.234 | -3.367 | 0.001 |
Low-lying area | 0.345** | 0.112 | 3.071 | 0.004 |
Land use pattern | 0.678** | 0.234 | -2.899 | 0.007 |
Policies or regulations | 0.456*** | 0.067 | 6.782 | 0.000 |
Government agencies | 0.211 | 0.104 | 2.019 | 0.045 |
R-squared Adjusted R-squared F-statistic P-value | 0.745 0.720 29.43 0.000 |
***, ** and * denote that the variable is significant at less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively |
Source: Field Survey Data (2023) |
3.2 Adaptation strategies employed by residents of the Tamale Metropolis to mitigate the effects of flooding
Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used to measure the level of agreement among the respondents and was found to be statistically significant for the adaptation methods ranked during the mitigation of climatic anomalies in the metropolis. Table 4.00 below shows the Chi-square which gives us (df = 9) = 1060.809 and the asymptotic Sig stats which are (Sig. = 0.000) and it implies that respondents scored signals at 1%. The Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (W) = 0.795, that is to say, 79.5% of the elements assigned by respondents are in agreement.
The research demonstrated holistically that the two tactics - of using flood barriers as well as sandbags - is the most adopted as a means of flood mitigation. Concern, which involves the use of concrete blockage means like sandbags and flood walls, aims to either hinder the development of flooding or to reduce its harmful effects. They are meant for keeping the properties and the structures above water during flooding party when the water level rises or during intense rainfall.
The use of filling barriers and sandbags is indicated the front row adaptation strategy which is grind against the effects of flooding in the Tamale locality. Implementing this plan involves throwing physical obstacles such as sandbags or flood doors that aim to block inflow or reduce the flood damages effect. Flood risks of properties and infrastructures are contained with this technique during the times it rains heavily or water levels rise.
The Tamale metropolis is experiencing heavy flooding in its flood-prone areas of the city causing different communities to be flooded year after year. The causes of flooding that we are experiencing in these parts are from natural sources and some of them are usually man-made. In the last twenty-seven years we have witnessed higher average temperatures of which the global climate change is a major contributor and also an alarming increase in the quantity of rainfall. Besides all these, such man-made causes as poor land use, unplanned construction of settlements, and haphazard discarding of other forms of refuse into the river and the banks of the river are highlighted as the major causes of flooding in urban city. In light of these challenges, the deployment of flood barriers and sandbags serves as a critical adaptation strategy to mitigate the impact of flooding in the Tamale metropolis. These physical barriers help protect life and property, prevent inundation, and reduce the socioeconomic impacts of floods in the flood-prone zones. Furthermore, the use of sandbags as flood barriers is a cost-effective and practical solution for protecting various areas from flooding. Sandbags are useful for blocking outer crevices of homes and containing rainfall in low-elevation terrain (Atufu & Holt, 2018), making them a valuable tool for flood protection.
Furthermore, the use of early warning systems is ranked second adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding. Early warning systems play a crucial role in reducing flood-related vulnerabilities by providing timely information about impending floods. This allows for early evacuation and preparedness, ultimately minimizing the loss of life and property damage. In the context of the Tamale metropolis, early warning systems provide critical information to residents and authorities, allowing for timely evacuation and preparedness in the event of impending floods. This significantly reduce the impact of flooding on communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the use of early warning systems is essential for enhancing disaster risk reduction and improving community resilience to flooding. These systems help empower communities with flood risk awareness and facilitate the adoption of fundamental strategies to mitigate the impact of flooding.
The third adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding is developing community evacuation plans community evacuation plans are ranked third. These plans involve establishing procedures for safely evacuating residents from flood-prone areas to designated shelters or safe locations. Effective community evacuation plans are essential for ensuring the safety of residents during flood events. In the Tamale Metropolis, residence in flood prone areas usually move to higher grounds or even temporary relocate to stay with their love once till the raining season is over, before they return to their homes (Kuusaana & Eledi, 2015).
In addition, building elevated structures is the fourth ranked adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding. Elevating structures such as homes, public buildings, and infrastructure above potential flood levels significantly reduce their vulnerability to flooding. This adaptation strategy helps minimize damage to properties and ensures that essential services remain operational during flood events. As a result, residence in flood prone areas raises their building foundation above sea level as strategy of preventing runoff water into their homes. Additionally, used of flood insurance coverage is ranked fifth ranked adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding. Flood insurance is a critical adaptation strategy as it provides financial protection to individuals and communities affected by flooding. It helps in covering the costs of repairing or rebuilding structures damaged by floods, thereby reducing the economic burden on affected households and businesses. Generally, it is businesses in flood-prone areas that tend to use flood insurance more than individuals. This is because businesses often have more assets and property to protect, making them more vulnerable to the financial impacts of flood damage.
Implementing sustainable landscaping is ranked sixth adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding. Sustainable landscaping is a strategy that involves using techniques to promote natural water absorption and drainage, thereby reducing surface runoff and the risk of localized flooding (Collentine & Futter, 2018). This approach also enhance the resilience of flood prone areas within the in the Tamale metropolis to extreme weather events. Households with rain gardens are less likely to greatly affected flooding as compared to houses with concrete floor. Additionally, specific landscaping designs, such as laying mulch, choosing native plants with high water tolerance, and building rain gardens, help prevent flood damage (Sharath & Peter, 2019).
Supporting local flood control measures is ranked seventh adaptation strategies employed in mitigating the effects of flooding. This includes advocating for and investing in infrastructure projects aimed at controlling flooding at the local level, such as expansion of drainage system within the flood prone areas. According to the Norizan, Hassan and Yusoff (2021), local flood control measures are essential for reducing the impact of floods and building more resilient communities. NADMO over the years has develop programs gear towards mitigating future losses from floods and other natural disasters.
While the use of emergency supplies is ranked as the least adaptation strategy employed in mitigating the effects of flooding, it is still a crucial aspect of flood preparedness in the. In the event of a flood, emergency supplies such as food, water, and medical supplies are necessary to sustain individuals and communities during and after the flood event. Philpott and Casavant (2016), recommends having emergency supplies such as sandbags, shovels, sump pumps assist individuals in overcoming the challenges of flooding.
Table 4
Adaptation strategies in reducing flood-related vulnerabilities
Types of adaptation strategies used | Mean Rank | Ranking |
Obtaining flood insurance coverage | 5.84 | 5th |
Using flood barriers and sandbags | 2.09 | 1st |
Utilizing early warning systems | 3.81 | 2nd |
Developing community evacuation plans | 4.26 | 3rd |
Building elevated structures | 5.31 | 4th |
Implementing sustainable landscaping | 6.19 | 6th |
Managing stormwater effectively | 6.83 | 8th |
Stocking emergency supplies | 7.00 | 10th |
Participating in community flood preparedness programs | 6.89 | 9th |
Supporting local flood control measures | 6.80 | 7th |
N Kendall's Wa Chi-Square df Asymp. Sig. | 400 0.795 1060.809 9 .000 |
Source: Field Data (2023) |