Expert interviews
Four main themes were identified from the analysis of the interview data: (1) Concerns and prior experience; (2) High-risk vs. low-risk groups; (3) Patient preference and adherence; and (4) Funding for monitoring and re-treatment (Fig. 2). Each theme is presented in detail below, along with representative participant quotes highlighting and supporting key aspects of the theme.
Concerns and prior experience
Expert views on the optimal treatment duration for adult patients with aHUS largely fell into two camps: either keeping patients on treatment indefinitely to avoid relapse or removing certain patients from treatment after the first three or six months (duration varied based on country and protocol followed). Although the vast majority of interviewees were in favour of treatment discontinuation – conditional on certain criteria being met, such as improved renal function or resolved trigger, if known, for aHUS development (e.g., pregnancy) – a prior negative experience of discontinuation seemed to make others more reluctant to consider the possibility of stopping: “In my own personal practice, it has been really exceedingly rare for me to recommend that a patient can discontinue their anti-complement therapy for their aHUS. I have one woman who had postpartum development of aHUS. And she was on therapy for three or four years, she was doing great, she really wanted to come off. It was right around the same time that the Italian data came out about that you could potentially stop people. And she came off and she had a recurrence about six months after she stopped. So, she's back on now. So, you know, I think that, in part, it has to do with your patient population. But I think, in part, it also has to do with respecting the potential underlying polymorphism or other abnormalities in complement regulatory proteins that are not going to go away and that are going to continue to put patients at risk” (Participant 4, USA).
Among experts supporting treatment discontinuation, concerns about the burden, high cost, and potential side-effects of lifelong treatment were often cited as key reasons: “You know, I often use the analogy of a chest infection. If you have a chest infection, you go on antibiotics. You might get another chest infection in two years’ time, but you don't stay on antibiotics to prevent it from happening two years later. You treat it when it flares up. And I see us moving in this country into that type of protocol for patients with aHUS, where we treat for a flare, and for a period following that to allow adequate establishment of remission, but then those patients will stop. Now, there may be some patients who just flare and flare and flare, and you think, you know, actually this is not working, and we just put them on it and park them on it long-term. But, you know, if you're 28 years old and you have your first episode of aHUS and we treat it, if it goes into remission, it could be another 28 years before you get another one. And you'll be on treatment for 28 years unnecessarily. With both the cost and the additional risk of meningococcal sepsis for that period, unnecessarily… So, I think that carrying on treatment indefinitely, blindly in all patients, is to the detriment of a significant proportion of patients because of the burden and risk of treatment” (Participant 5, UK). In addition, emerging evidence and a growing international consensus that lifelong treatment is not necessary for all patients, were also frequently mentioned: “In general, I think all experts now agree that when there are no pathogenic barriers, mutations, in complement genes, you can be confident about eculizumab discontinuation, because the risk of relapses is low. There are prospective studies now, particularly this wonderful study from the French group, showing these differences in the risk of relapses according to the presence or not of a genetic mutation” (Participant 1, Spain).
High-risk vs. low-risk groups
Deciding which patients required lifelong treatment and which not, typically involved the consideration of many factors, including: patient age at first episode (raised by 9/10), family history of prior TMA (4/10), disease severity at presentation (4/10), previous relapse episodes (1/10), rapidity of eculizumab response (2/10), improvement in kidney function (10/10), chronic kidney disease stage (5/10), presence of renal transplant (9/10), extra-renal manifestations (1/10), as well as presence of mutations conferring a high risk of recurrence (9/10): “People where I would be somewhat more reluctant to stop, because the relapse rates are higher than other patients, are people with, you know, the stronger or more pathogenic complement mutations, such as a factor H, or C3, or a factor I mutation… Also, people who have already lost a kidney. Or if they're running on a renal transplant, I'm more reluctant to stop. And I will often not stop in those cases. And finally, people who were diagnosed very young, like, you know, the kid who had the first episode at the age of 2 is different from the woman who has it at the age of 55. These are typically the patients that I will steer away from discontinuation. You're more cautious with those patients. But these are very few cases, most of my patients do stop” (Participant 9, USA).
Although the results of mutational analysis weighted heavily on participants’ treatment and discontinuation decisions, these were not considered in isolation: “Our general approach is we’ll send complement genetics with next generation sequencing right from the beginning and, hopefully, we'll have that within about four to six weeks from the send-out. So, by the time we get to a point where we would be thinking about stopping, we have that information. So, our general approach is, if they don't have a mutation, those would be the patients where we would be more comfortable in stopping. Now, that said, they have to have shown complete hematologic response, we want to hopefully see also complete kidney improvement, or at least stability, for at least a couple of months, and no evidence of extra-renal manifestations of the disease, as we want to make sure that they're very comfortable and stable at that point. For patients who do have an identified genetic mutation, we will typically continue longer term, at least for a year” (Participant 10, Canada).
Patient preference and adherence
Apart from clinical factors described above, all participants highlighted the crucial role that patient preference and adherence played in their treatment and discontinuation decisions: “With almost everybody we have the discussion, ‘do you want to stop or not’? And, in most cases, the discussion is actually quite well received. There is a minority of patients, I think I'd say 10 or 20%, who do not want to hear about it and with those we will continue treatment, because the patient has to be comfortable with the decision. Because it comes with fairly close monitoring after that. But the majority are very open to it. I think it also depends on your relationship with the patient. If they have confidence that you're going to monitor them, that's going to be okay, most of them are willing to consider stopping, particularly in the eculizumab era, when people were getting infusions every two weeks. After a while they got tired of that and wanted to see if they could go without it. At least in my experience. I've had less of that with ravulizumab because, you know, once every two months they say, ‘ok, I could do this longer” (Participant 9, USA).
Based on experts’ accounts, patterns of patient preference seemed to vary according to: patient age and disease severity (i.e., older patients and patients with aggressive aHUS were typically more afraid to stop), access to ravulizumab (i.e., patients were more willing to continue treatment in cases where ravulizumab was available), and existing protocols in each country (i.e., in countries, such as the UK, where lifelong treatment is the current standard of care, patients were perceived as more reluctant to stop, whereas in countries that had already adopted a time-limited protocol, patient requests for stopping were reported to be more frequent): “I think part of what's happening now is that patients themselves are hearing that some patients are having successful discontinuation. So, even those patients who have genetic mutations are asking to stop, or they're bringing that up as a treatment decision. And it's never an absolute ‘yes’ or an absolute ‘no’ for patients if they are aware of that potential risk. Even if they do have a known mutation, we'll stop it. You know, everybody's going into it eyes wide open, and we monitor them very closely with blood work” (Participant 10, Canada). Patient adherence to monitoring, which typically included frequent self-checks with urine dipsticks and blood pressure monitoring, was seen as a decisive factor for treatment discontinuation, especially in cases where close monitoring was not always possible: “But then you need a very compliant patient who really swears that when they feel bad, or they have any kind of infection, or any problem, that they will do urine sticks or go to the doctor to draw blood. Because they're all very far away, they can't come to me, I don't have the capacity to do the regular routine work-up” (Participant 7, Germany).
Funding for monitoring and re-treatment
There was a consensus that immediate access to treatment (i.e., within 24 to 48 hours), should a relapse be documented or suspected, was a prerequisite for reaching a discontinuation decision. This, however, was not without challenges and several experts narrated instances of having to ‘negotiate’ or ‘convince’ decision-makers for funding of monitoring activities and re-treatment: “The benefit with our programme with the Ministry of Health is that we were able to convince them to give us what they call ‘background funding’. So, if we do stop, it's still there and we don't have to go through the initial approval process again. So, if there is evidence of recurrence of disease, even just on labs and not clinically, we can start the drug very quickly again, and we can hopefully prevent any long-term outcomes” (Participant 10, Canada). Broader issues of how health care systems are supporting off-treatment monitoring were also raised: “I think the problem is that health systems are very used to monitoring patients who are on a treatment... What's less clear is monitoring patients who are off treatment, and how health care systems do that. Because if anything, if you think of an aHUS patient, they're more at risk off their treatment than they are on treatment. But you can easily get funding to monitor lytic activities, whatever, once the patient is on treatment. They stop that treatment, you put them into a more at-risk position. And then you got to say, ‘well, how is that going to be funded?’. So, it's getting the commissioners to think slightly differently about this. And what you need to do is you actually need to take some of the funding that was used for the drug, whilst the patient was on, to move that into monitoring protocols, which will be actually far cheaper, better for the patient in many, many cases, but not free of cost. And I think there is an issue there that needs to be addressed at a systems level about monitoring people not on treatment. And that is something that we are negotiating at the moment about how we do that, because particularly in a centralised system like ours, if we are making a decision to stop somebody, and therefore taking clinical responsibility for that decision, we need to be able to monitor that patient adequately” (Participant 5, UK).
Cost-consequence analysis
Applying the decision tree of Fig. 1 gives the results presented in Table 3 for a one-year period following cessation of treatment compared to continuation of treatment. The model predicts that by 12-months after the decision to discontinue treatment 21% of subjects will have been returned to long-term treatment, with an average treatment period of 2.9 months over the course of the year. Of patients discontinuing, 8% are predicted to have a TMA that resolves without long-term renal injury compared to just 4% in the group that continues treatment. However, 1% of patients are predicted to experience a TMA event that results in renal damage compared to no patients in the treated group. By contrast, patients on-treatment are at risk of serious infections such as meningitis compared to patients off-treatment, with the risk approaching 1%.
Table 3
Consequences of stopping versus continuing treatment over a 12-month period
| Long-term Tx | Months Tx | TMA resolve | TMA damage | Meningitis |
Stop | 21% | 2.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% |
Continue | 100% | 12.0 | 4% | 0% | 1% |
The results of Table 3 are based on expected event rates for an “average” adult patient with aHUS. However, it is clear from the expert interviews reported above that treating physicians are concerned with high-risk patients and with adherence to monitoring once off treatment. Two scenarios for the basic model are therefore explored. In the first, the underlying risk of a TMA/relapse is doubled to reflect higher than average risk of poor outcomes for some types of patients (22), including those with prior experience of TMA outcomes and/or a genetic trigger for their aHUS condition (primary aHUS). In the second scenario, the proportion of TMAs assumed to cause damage is doubled representing a situation where poor adherence to a self-monitoring protocol results in late presentation of the TMA with consequent higher risks of organ damage.
The results of these two scenarios, plus the scenario where high risk and poor adherence to self-monitoring occur together are presented in Table 4, which shows that the impacts of these scenarios are relatively modest. The key outcome of TMA resulting in damage doubles under each scenario to 2% of the off-treatment group, rising to 3% if the two conditions occur together.
Table 4
Scenarios relating to risk of TMA and adherence with self-monitoring
| Long-term Tx | Months Tx | TMA resolve | TMA damage | Meningitis |
High risk of TMA | | | | |
Stop | 41% | 5.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% |
Continue | 100% | 12.0 | 7% | 0% | 1% |
Poor adherence to self-monitoring | | | |
Stop | 22% | 2.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% |
Continue | 100% | 12.0 | 4% | 0% | 1% |
High risk of TMA and poor adherence to self-monitoring | | |
Stop | 43% | 5.6 | 13% | 3% | 0% |
Continue | 100% | 12.0 | 7% | 0% | 1% |