A novel mathematical model for the critical ventilation velocity to prevent smoke backlayering in tunnels is presented, addressing limitations of prior approaches. The basis of the model is a rigorous characterisation of the physical processes by the characteristic quantities. Empirical parameters within the new model are determined, to align with results from both full-size and small-scale tunnel experiments. Data from numerical simulations (CFD, Computational Fluid Dynamics), validated by known test data, are then used to estimate the effects of tunnel slope and other parameters on the critical velocity. The model is seen to approximate the critical velocity well, following all trends identified by test data and CFD parameter studies. The empirically calibrated equation permits prediction of the critical velocity beyond the narrow range of tunnel geometries where known results already give an answer. The resulting equation has practical application for tunnel design.