Presently, two primary challenges, human-induced land use change and climate change, pose significant threats to biodiversity, imperilling the conservation and survival of several wildlife species globally. Approximately 39% of terrestrial habitats are thought to have been altered by human activities such as the conversion of land for agriculture the construction of roads, and urban settlements, and have resulted in the fragmentation of remaining habitats in need of strong conservation interventions (Ellis et al. 2010). Consequently, the populations of numerous wildlife species have experienced significant declines, with approximately 20–30% of the world's amphibians, reptiles, and mammals now facing the risk of local extinctions and have been categorized as endangered by the IUCN (Young et al. 2004, Schipper et al. 2008, Bohm et al. 2013). Furthermore, it is projected that by 2050, agribusiness and urban infrastructure expansion may result in the displacement of approximately 10–20 per cent of natural grasslands and woodlands, further constraining wildlife habitats (Alcamo et al. 2006). These circumstances could worsen in the future if timely interventions are not implemented. Moreover, species residing in lowland areas often face a higher risk of habitat loss and fragmentation due to higher levels of human-induced drivers of biodiversity loss, including activities like agriculture and infrastructure development (Miehe et al., 2009; Shrestha et al., 2012; Elsen et al., 2020). Hence, there is a critical need to gain insights into and anticipate the consequences of impending land-use changes on wildlife species, vital for adaptive conservation and management planning.
Climate change has the potential to intensify the consequences of habitat destruction by creating intricate relationships between vegetation, water, and climate and heightening the uncertainty of wildlife population trends in the future (Prato, 2009; Zeller et al., 2021). Climate change significantly impacted the suitable habitat of a variety of species by altering the ecological conditions and likely presents a significant challenge to traditional in situ conservation strategies under the current conservation acts (Jetz et al. 2007; Hannah et al. 2007; Carroll et al. 2010; Garcia et al. 2014; Zeller et al., 2021). Furthermore, the extensive ecological transformations induced by changing climate can also adversely impact habitats, potentially increasing the occurrence of stochastic events affecting wildlife (Gedir et al., 2015; Zeller et al., 2021). Given these circumstances, the most pressing and highly recommended strategy for adapting to these impacts involves integrating anticipated changes resulting from climate and land use alterations into current conservation planning (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). Therefore, it is imperative to determine the specific ways and locations where climate change will exert its effects on both the quantity and quality of available habitat to wildlife species. This information can be crucial in coordinating management initiatives, mitigating adverse consequences on wildlife and proactively addressing future threats (Sinclair et al., 2018).
Endemic species, characterized by their limited geographic ranges, are especially more sensitive to environmental changes due to their restricted dispersal capabilities. Consequently, they may be less able to adapt to the rapidly shifting climatic isotherms compared to widely distributed and wide-ranging species (Ohlemu¨ller et al. 2008). Additionally, lesser-known and poorly studied species are highly susceptible due to the lack of available information regarding their habitat requirements and life history traits. One such species is the Four-horned antelope (FHA) (Tetracerus quadricornis de Blainville, 1816), a solitary herbivore restricted to peninsular India and Nepal. The current populations exhibit a patchy distribution, primarily inhabiting dry deciduous forest habitats throughout their range (Pokharel et al., 2016). The four-horned antelope is categorized as Vulnerable by the IUCN (IUCN 2008) and is listed in Schedule I of the Indian Wildlife Protection Act (1972). The four-horned antelope prefers to live in hilly and undulating terrain (Baskaran et al., 2011; Prater, 1980) and is primarily a browser but also feeds on grasses, shrubs and fruits (Sharma et al., 2009). The spatial distribution of the four-horned antelope across its range is primarily influenced by factors such as temperature variation between seasons, precipitation, tree species richness and anthropogenic disturbance (Pokharel et al., 2016; Sharma et al., 2013). The four-horned antelope is threatened by habitat loss and degradation, caused mainly by habitat clearance for agriculture, the spread of invasive species, particularly Lantana camara, and habitat fragmentation (Krishna et al., 2008).
Considering the four-horned antelope's sensitivity to temperature and precipitation, the uncertainty introduced by climate change will significantly influence its distribution across its range. Therefore, considering the anthropogenic pressures faced by the four-horned antelope, it becomes imperative to estimate both current and future habitat suitability, and identifying adaptive measures, including the identification of refuges, is crucial for the successful long-term management of the four-horned antelope across its distributional range. In this study, we used the occurrence data of four-horned antelope and a suite of environmental variables to develop the current and future habitat suitability for four-horned antelope within the study area. We then identified the climate-resilient areas for four-horned antelope across its range. This valuable insight can aid in prioritizing the habitats for effective conservation and management initiatives.