3.1 Expected outcomes
Large-scale population-level evidence of reinfection during the Omicron variant will be provided in this study using the available electronic health records from CDARDS and vaccination records from DH in Hong Kong. This study will report the proportion of reinfection under the Omicron variant, especially BA.4/5; And estimate the severity of reinfection compared to the first infection and the difference in clinical sequelae after 0-21 days in the acute phase and
after 22 days in the recovering phase, including the adjusted hazard ratios of excess risk for ICU admission, hospitalization, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits. Also, determine whether factors such as age, sex, and vaccination status are potential risk factors for reinfection and severe reinfection.
3.2 Clinical and Policy Implications
Reinfection is a continuing and increasingly troubling issue and a significant public health issue regarding the disease burden. The number of SARS-COV-2 infections and reinfections continues to rise with the rapid spread of the Omicron variant (29). For the increasing number of initial infected population (i.e., those eligible for reinfection), the issue of whether being infected a second time poses an additional risk is essential. The assessment of clinical sequelae in the acute and recovering phases of reinfection in this study will contribute to evaluating whether ongoing vigilance is suitable in people who have already been infected once in terms of reducing overall health risk. The findings of this study will also offer clinicians a comprehensive understanding of the extent of the risk of common clinical sequelae of Omicron variant reinfection in Hong Kong children, which will help improve the diagnosis and therapy of COVID-19 infections.
Given that SARS-CoV-2 will likely remain a challenge for years, the comprehensive evidence presented in this study will inform potential policies for developing reinfection prevention strategies that can be publicly acceptable and implemented consistently over time to prevent reinfection. At the same time, it also provides some data to support the risk assessment of reinfection. Moreover, the study will examine the relationship between patients’ vaccination status and the risk and severity of reinfection, enabling key stakeholders to use an effective prevention algorithm to predict the magnitude of future health complications caused by COVID-19 reinfection and plan healthcare resources accordingly.
3.2.1 Direct Applications
1) Public Health Messaging: Emphasize the importance of maintaining up-to-date vaccinations and observing health precautions after recovering from an initial infection.
2) Vaccination Policy: If the study confirms significantly lower reinfection rates and severity in vaccinated children, advocate for targeted vaccination campaigns focusing on children susceptible to infection.
3.2.2 Broader Influence
1) Long-term Health Planning: Insights from the study could guide long-term health policies regarding paediatric health resources, especially in preparing for and managing school outbreaks.
2) Global Health Strategies: The findings could contribute to global recommendations on paediatric COVID-19 management, supporting efforts to reduce the global burden of the disease by identifying effective mitigation strategies for children.
3.3 Limitations
3.3.1 Potential Biases and Mitigation Strategies
Anticipated Biases and Countermeasures:
Selection Bias: There is a risk that the children included in the study might not represent the general population due to the study's retrospective nature.
Mitigation: Utilize stratified random sampling to ensure a representative cohort and adjust for known confounders like age, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities in the analysis.
Information Bias: Misclassification of reinfection status due to ambiguous testing data.
Mitigation: Implement stringent criteria for defining reinfection, including confirmed negative tests between positive results, and cross-verify with multiple data sources.
3.3.2 Technological Challenges
Data Management System Limitations:
The reliability of our findings hinges significantly on the accuracy and functionality of the data management systems used by the HA in Hong Kong. Potential technological issues include:
1) Data Integration: Different systems may have non-uniform data formats, leading to difficulties in merging and analyzing data comprehensively.
2) System Downtime: Unexpected outages or maintenance of hospital IT systems could delay data retrieval and affect the timeliness of follow-up data collection.
3) Data Accuracy: Inherent limitations in the electronic health record systems, such as input errors or outdated information, could introduce errors in our data set.
We will implement rigorous data cleaning protocols and verify critical data points through secondary sources where available to reduce these risks.
3.3.3 Longitudinal Follow-Up
Potential for Longitudinal Study Extension:
While this study primarily focuses on the immediate and medium-term impacts of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron reinfections over a defined period, extending it into a longitudinal follow-up could provide invaluable insights into the long-term effects of reinfections. Such an extension would allow us to:
1) Assess Long-term Outcomes: Understand the extended clinical consequences of reinfections, such as chronic respiratory or cardiovascular complications.
2) Monitor Immunity Durability: Evaluate how long immunity lasts post-reinfection, which could inform the timing of booster vaccinations.
3) Identify Delayed Sequelae: Detect any late-emerging effects in pediatric populations that might go unnoticed in shorter studies.
We hope to enhance the robustness and applicability of our research findings, providing a solid foundation for future studies and health policy decisions.