In this paper, a range of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, are applied to a sample area in Northeast Basilicata, Southern Italy. The goal is to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture, within the context of broader research aimed at developing a decision support model. This model is designed to provide farmers in the area with smart alerts triggered by exceeding specific thresholds relating to agro-environmental indices and extreme weather events in order to optimise water use, preserve agricultural biodiversity, mitigate hydrogeological instability, and facilitate adaptation to climate changes. The core of this approach is based on implementing a rigorous methodology that uses easily acquired data for a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on agriculture. The analysis of data shows an increase in temperatures and variable precipitation patterns showing a trend towards more severe drought conditions, and also reveals a similar behaviour from the comparison of the various indices. This observation highlights that the assessment of agricultural drought can primarily be conducted through precipitation data, indicating a marginal role of temperatures in areas characterised by a Mediterranean climate.
The significance of these results supports the effectiveness of using the SPI index as the main tool for drought assessment in these climatic zones. This methodology not only simplify the approach to drought evaluation but also aligns with the objectives of the decision support model to provide farmers with predictive and management tools based on reliable and easily interpretable data.