The PMA-Ethiopia pregnancy cohort consists of 2,419 women across all four waves. Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the sample. At baseline, the respondents ranged from 15 to 47 years old, with a median age of 27. Respondents were distributed across six regions, with roughly one-quarter of respondents in Oromiya and SNNP, and fewer women in Afar (8.8%) and Addis (9.6%). Women who completed all four waves were more likely to be in the wealthiest quintile (~ 33%), with the second-lowest quintile being the least likely to complete all four waves (~ 15%). Most respondents have less than primary education (38%) or primary education only (36%); slightly over one-quarter of respondents had completed secondary or higher at baseline (26.4%). The majority of respondents reported that this pregnancy was desired at the time (70%), with 22% reporting that this pregnancy was mistimed, and only 7.5% reporting that they had wanted no more children before this pregnancy. Roughly 60% of respondents had used a contraceptive method before this pregnancy, and three-quarters of respondents stated that they either intended to use a contraceptive method or were already using a method at the 6-week follow up. However, PPFP counseling amongst the sample was very low − 60% received no counseling on postpartum family planning methods whatsoever.
Respondents were able to change their reported intentions as well as report actual use or subsequent pregnancies in the 6-week, 6-month, and 1-year follow ups. Figure 1 shows the pathways that the cohort follows, with colors corresponding to their ‘final’ state at the 1-year follow up.
Trajectory Cluster Analysis
Leveraging the panel data structure, we conduct a cluster analysis on the contraceptive intention trajectories that women follow in the first year postpartum. Using the ‘elbow method’ with the within-cluster-sum of squared errors, we determine the optimal number of clusters for this dataset to be three. As with any cluster analysis, determining the number of clusters makes a difference in the interpretability. We explore possible alternatives in the discussion section.
Based on the three-cluster algorithm, we examine which trajectories fall into which clusters. Figure 3, below, shows the probabilities of cluster membership for each state possible for all four waves of the survey. Distinct patterns emerge. Cluster 1 is primarily composed of individuals who do not intend to use a contraceptive method and actualize those intentions to not use during the first year postpartum. For brevity moving forward, we call members of this cluster “Actualized Non-Users”. Cluster 2 is characterized by individuals who intend to use a contraceptive method within the first year, but do not go on to actualize those intentions to use. We label this cluster the “Aspiring Users”. Cluster 3 represents respondents who both express an intent to use PPFP and actualize those intentions. We label this cluster “Actualized Users”.
While the dynamics of Actualized Non-Users and Actualized Users are informative, the cluster of Aspiring Users represents the addressable burden for PPFP in Ethiopia. That is, this is the group of women who have expressed intent to use contraceptives postpartum but who likely face barriers to access, which may be addressed with targeted intervention.
Using the results of the cluster analysis, we assign respondents to the clusters identified based on the probabilities outlined in Fig. 2. Importantly, we use a binary categorization of member or non-member, for the sake of simplifying our interpretation. This necessarily excludes a substantial number of women who deviate from the trajectories that were identified with cluster analysis, a limitation that could be more deeply explored with further research. With these simplified clusters, we can examine the individual-level characteristics associated with actualization, as well as with women who were unable to actualize their intent to use. Selected statistics are shown in Table 2, below.
Table 2
Selected statistics on individual-level characteristics associated with each cluster
| Cluster 1 Actualized Non-Users | Cluster 2 Aspiring Users | Cluster 3 Actualized Users |
Sample size (total n = 2418) | 301 | 375 | 683 |
Economics | 41% in lowest wealth quintile; 4% in highest | Evenly distributed across wealth quintiles (~ 20% each) | Over half (55%) in highest wealth quintile |
Region of Ethiopia | Concentrated in Afar (45%); only 1% in Addis, 6% in Amhara, and 7% in Tigray | Fairly evenly distributed across states (between 24–27% in each), but only 2% in Addis | 19% in Addis & 18% in Afar/Amhara; 17% in Tigray, 22–23% in Oromiya and the South |
Education | 80% with no education; 16% with primary | 44% with no education; 38% with primary only | 20% with no education, 40% with primary, 40% secondary or higher |
Contact with healthcare system | 10% received PPFP counseling at both ANC & PNC visits 69% did not receive PPFP counseling at any visit 73% prefer a home birth | 13% received PPFP counseling at both ANC & PNC visits 61% did not receive PPFP counseling at any visit 28% prefer a home birth | 14% received PPFP counseling at both ANC & PNC visits 59% did not receive PPFP counseling at any visit 12% prefer a home birth |
Ever used FP | 14% have used FP before | 71% have used FP before | 80% have used FP before |
Examining the individual-level characteristics of respondents in each cluster reveals several distinct patterns. Overall, Aspiring Users were evenly distributed across region and wealth, but nearly half had no education (relative to 80% of Actualized Non-Users and 20% of Actualized Users). Contact with the healthcare system is an important factor distinguishing these clusters – while all women were very unlikely to receive PPFP counseling at both ANC and PNC visits, women who expressed intent to use (both Aspiring Users and Actualized Users) were slightly more likely to receive these multiple counseling touchpoints. Over half of women in all clusters did not receive PPFP counseling at any visit. Preference for home birth was highest among Actualized Non-Users (73%), low for Aspiring Users (28%) and lowest for Actualized Users (12%).
Using the same data and cluster categories, we now turn to the multinomial model results, to estimate the significance of individual factors on a woman’s intent-to-use trajectory. The outcome of the multinomial regression model is cluster membership. Figure 4, below maps coefficients on the x-axis and variables on the y-axis. The vertical dotted line represents the reference, which is the Actualized Non-Users cluster. Point estimates for Aspiring Users (circle) and Actualized Users (triangle) that overlap the dotted line are not significantly different from Actualized Non-Users. Point estimates for Aspiring Users and Actualized Users that overlap are not significantly different from one another. Because we are primarily interested in identifying the drivers of not actualizing a stated intent to use, we will focus our main discussion on the variables significantly different for Aspiring Users.
Only two factors were associated with being an Aspiring User rather than actualizing either use or non-use are: 1) this pregnancy being unintended; 2) region. Two additional factors were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being an Actualized User rather than an Aspiring User or Actualized Non-User: first birth, and wealth. All other factors are either not statistically significant or significant for both Aspiring Users and Actualized Users – suggesting that these factors are significant for developing an intent to use, but not necessarily sufficient for actualizing that intent.
This pregnancy being “mistimed” is associated with higher intentions – with significant higher probability of being an Actualized User or an Aspiring User than an Actualized Non-User, but no difference between intending – as an Aspiring User – and actualizing that intent – as an Actualized User. However, the pregnancy being “unintended” is associated with being an Aspiring User rather than either an Actualized User or an Actualized Non-User. Women who declared their pregnancy truly unintended (i.e. did not want a pregnancy versus wanted a pregnancy but not now) were more likely to intend to use a contraceptive method during the first year postpartum but subsequently not use a method.
Regional differences are striking. Women in Tigray, Oromiya, and the Afar and Amhara regions are more likely to be Aspring Users, and in the case of Tigray and Oromiya, significantly less likely to be Actualized Users. Perhaps this is not altogether unsurprising, as each of these regions has faced challenges in health care delivery over the same time period (e.g. conflict in Tigray).
While we do not see a significant wealth difference between Actualized Non-Users and Aspiring Users, we see a familiar wealth gradient for Actualized Users. This suggests that while wealth does not significantly impact a woman’s intent to use, it certainly seems to play a role in actualizing her intentions. Similarly, if this birth was a woman’s first, she was more likely to be an Actualized User than any other trajectory.
PPFP counseling is a topic that has garnered much attention in Ethiopia, especially with the expansion of the healthcare extension workers nationwide (cite). However, we find that while receiving PPFP counseling in both ANC and PNC visits was significant for women’s expressed intentions, it did not distinguish between women who were Aspiring Users and those who were Actualized Users.