On Saturday, October 7th, 2023, the Hamas (Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya) movement, along with other Palestinian militant groups, initiated a surprise attack on the State of Israel. The assault commenced with the launch of thousands of rockets targeting the southern and central regions of Israel in the early morning hours. Subsequently, thousands of Hamas members, along with militants from other groups, as well as civilians, breached the border fence surrounding the Gaza Strip. The attack utilized various means of transportation, including vehicles, paragliders, boats, and on foot. Military bases and numerous settlements in the Gaza envelope, including Kibbutzs, rural villages, and cities, were intruded. Furthermore, the assault targeted the Nova Music Festival, where thousands of attendees were subjected to extreme and brutal violence. The attack resulted in a devastating loss of life, with over 1,200 individuals killed, including Israeli civilians (37 of them were children), foreign nationals, and Israeli security personnel. Additionally, around 240 individuals, comprising civilians, including children, women, elderly individuals, foreign nationals, and soldiers, were taken hostage and transported to the Gaza Strip (Yadlin & Evental, 2024). Furthermore, approximately 2,000 individuals sustained injuries, including cases of sexual assault.
As a result of the Hamas' surprising attack, numerous residents from the southern region of Israel were swiftly relocated to various locations across the country, often departing with nothing but the clothing on their backs. Additionally, a significant number of inhabitants from the northern region of Israel were evacuated to enable military forces to fortify the northern defense against potential incursions by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Israel is currently engaged in armed conflict with the Gaza Strip and faces aerial bombardment from Hezbollah, as well as other regions including Yemen and most recently Iran (Hall, 2024). Consequently, approximately six months following the initial attack on October 7th, 2023, a considerable number of evacuees from both the southern and northern regions of Israel remain displaced, and many of them are still residing in temporary accommodations. The duration and resolution of this forced displacement remain uncertain, leaving evacuees uncertain about when and how they may return to their homes.
Five days following the terror attack (on October 11–15, 2023), we introduced the initial round of longitudinal data collection. Utilizing a structured questionnaire, we surveyed a representative sample of Israeli Hebrew-speaking adults, comprising 2,000 individuals, via an online panel. A second round of data collection was conducted approximately a month later (on November 10–15, 2023), involving 1,613 respondents from the initial measurement (see Kaim et al., 2024). The third data collection took place on January 14–21, 2024, involving 1,360 respondents from the second measurement. This third round of data comprises the dataset for the present study's general population sample. Subsequently, from March 1–9, 2024, we conducted additional data collection among 372 evacuee respondents from both the southern and northern regions of Israel, employing a similar questionnaire, facilitated by another online panel company. The current study seeks to contrast the perceptions of resilience, as well as positive and negative coping mechanisms, between the general population and the evacuees. Through the examination of these two datasets, our objective is to evaluate the hypothesis suggesting that although Israel as a whole is facing a notable security crisis, evacuees experience elevated levels of risks and instability in comparison to the general populace. Thus, we posit that they warrant particular attention from governmental bodies.
Numerous studies have explored the psychological responses of communities affected by disasters compared to neighboring communities unaffected by the event. For instance, in flood research, it was found that interpersonal resources, community social capital, and engagement were key factors for positive adaptation in affected communities, while community economic development and trust in community leadership drove adaptation in the comparison community (Bakic & Ajdukovic, 2021), and in the context of bushfires in Australia, distress rates were consistently high among all participants, worsened by the severity of bushfire exposure (Macleod et al., 2024). Additionally, extensive literature exists on the resilience and coping strategies of evacuees displaced during various catastrophic events. Studies have focused on war evacuees (Grabowska et al., 2023; Mujeeb & Zubair, 2012; Oviedo et al., 2022; Yalim & Chapple, 2023), evacuees from nuclear accidents (Kukihara et al., 2014; Perry, 1983; Takebayashi et al., 2020), and those affected by natural disasters such as hurricanes (Kang, 2023; Lee et al., 2009), earthquakes (Kukihara et al., 2014; Takebayashi et al., 2020), tsunamis (Kukihara et al., 2014; Takebayashi et al., 2020), floods (Perry, 1983), and volcanic eruptions (Perry, 1983). However, to our knowledge, no study has directly compared coping mechanisms between the general population and evacuees during an event that impacts the entire population, though to a varied extent. This research aims to fill this gap by examining and contrasting the coping strategies employed by both groups, the general population and evacuees, in the context of such an all-encompassing event. Focusing solely on the general population may obscure the unique challenges faced by evacuees during the ongoing war. Conversely, centering solely on evacuees might exaggerate the perceived psychological impact of the conflict on the broader Israeli public. Therefore, comparing the responses of these two groups is crucial for gaining a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
Resilience
The theoretical construct of psychological resilience has been extensively investigated in numerous studies, with various definitions proposed. One widely supported definition posits resilience as the capacity of individuals to effectively manage crises and adversities and subsequently recover to the greatest extent possible (Raetze et al., 2022). Over the years, researchers have examined different forms of resilience, including individual resilience (Miller-Graff, 2022), community and societal resilience (Kimhi et al., 2020a), and organizational resilience (Tekletsion et al., 2024), among others. In the current study, the focus lies on exploring societal, community, and individual resilience.
Societal resilience (SR, also referred to as 'National resilience'). This construct pertains to a society's ability to navigate threats that affect either the entire society or significant portions of it. When SR is robust, society demonstrates effective adjustment and functioning in response to potentially traumatic events (Kimhi et al., 2020a). Canetti et al. (2014) define SR as the capacity of a nation or large society to withstand hardships while maintaining its structural integrity. Over the past decade, academic discourse has seen a notable increase in interest regarding SR. Ballada et al. (2022) attribute this increased interest to the rise in various crises that have threatened humanity during this period, including natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and the global COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, crises stemming from human actions, such as major accidents, terrorist attacks, or wars, have contributed to the heightened scientific and public attention on SR. Previous research conducted during crises, such as armed conflicts or the COVID-19 pandemic, has demonstrated correlations between SR and other coping indicators. For instance, studies have found positive associations between SR and factors like hope and morale, while negative correlations were observed with distress symptoms (Eshel et al., 2021; Kimhi, Baran et al., 2023; Marciano et al., 2022; Vinkers et al., 2020).
Community resilience (CR). This construct denotes the collective capacity of a community to endure and adapt amidst stressful events or conditions, encompassing both natural disasters and human-made crises and to subsequently recover from these adversities. Eachus (2014) defines CR as the ability of a community to anticipate risks, mitigate their impacts, and rapidly bounce back following such calamities. Recent research on the Ukraine-Russian conflict has indicated a positive correlation between CR and the other forms of resilience (SR and IR), as well as positive coping indicators such as hope and well-being. Conversely, CR has been found to exhibit negative associations with negative coping indicators such as psychological distress symptoms and a sense of danger (Kimhi et al., 2023).
In a previous study conducted during a former armed conflict, the SR and CR of Israelis residing in the Gaza envelope were compared with data previously collected from the general population. The findings revealed that while the SR level of the southern sample was significantly lower than that of the general population, the opposite trend was observed regarding CR, which was higher than that of the general population (Kimhi et al., 2020a). A similar pattern of results was observed among inhabitants of 29 communal settlements located in a regional council near the Lebanese (northern) border (Unpublished data).
Individual resilience (IR). Throughout their lives, individuals often confront numerous severe incidents that they may perceive as personally traumatic events (Bonanno & Mancini, 2008). Researchers have coined the term "individual resilience" to describe the capacity to withstand and recover from such adversities. IR reflects a set of protective factors that aid individuals in adapting, ameliorating, or modifying their responses to mitigate these challenges (Bonanno et al., 2015). Kimhi, Baran et al. (2023) discovered positive associations between IR, SR, and CR, as well as with hope and well-being. Conversely, IR was found to exhibit negative correlations with a sense of danger and psychological distress symptoms. Direct comparisons of IR between armed conflict evacuees and the general population are undocumented. It is hypothesized that evacuees may exhibit decreased resilience, pending empirical validation.
Coping indicators
Coping indicators can serve as markers of either positive (Coccia, 2022) or negative (Eden et al., 2020) predictors regarding an individual's ability to cope with a particular adversity. In the present study, we investigated two positive coping indicators, namely hope and morale, alongside two negative coping indicators, namely psychological distress symptoms and a sense of danger.
Hope. Hope, as defined by Schneider et al. (1991), involves the anticipation that positive outcomes will manifest in the future. Conversely, Fredrickson (2001) conceptualized hope as an emotional state. In our previous research endeavors, hope consistently emerged as the most robust predictor of SR (Kaim et al., 2024; Marciano et al., 2022).
Morale. This concept initially associated with the military sphere, has been extended to encompass various domains (Sabitova et al., 2020). In the context of the current study, morale is defined as a general measure of mood amidst wartime circumstances. It encapsulates the current state of mind, contrasting with hope, which pertains to perceptions regarding future prospects. Morale and hope often demonstrate a positive correlation (Rideout & Montemuro, 1986).
Psychological distress. Psychological distress, characterized by anxiety and depression symptoms, commonly manifests in individuals facing significant threats or adversities (Cénat et al., 2021). For instance, Salari et al. (2020) conducted a literature review and meta-analysis, revealing a high prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 30% of the populations surveyed reporting such symptoms. Similarly, Levin et al. (2023) demonstrated a heightened prevalence of distress symptoms across large samples in response to various disasters in different countries, including the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the UK, a Super Typhoon in the Philippines, and terror attacks in the UK, USA, and France. Distress symptoms have been found to exhibit a negative correlation with all forms of resilience, including IR, CR, and SR (Kimhi et al., 2020b), as well as with hope (Marciano et al., 2022).
Sense of danger. Sense of danger assesses the degree to which individuals perceive their current situation as hazardous, either for themselves or for their family members. Previous research has indicated that residents living near the southern border of Israel exhibited a heightened sense of danger compared to the general population (Kimhi et al., 2020a). Additionally, the sense of danger has been positively associated with psychological distress (Braun-Lewensohn & Al-Sayed, 2018; Kimhi, Eshel, et al., 2020).
Research hypotheses
Drawing from the literature outlined above, we formulate the following hypotheses:
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The evacuees’ sample will demonstrate lower levels of SR and IR compared to the general population. However, they are expected to exhibit higher levels of CR.
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The evacuees’ sample will demonstrate lower levels of hope and morale compared to the general population.
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The evacuees’ sample will exhibit higher levels of distress symptoms and sense of danger compared to the general population.
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Consistent with previous findings from our research endeavors, we hypothesize that hope will emerge as the most salient predictor of SR within both sample groups (Kaim et al., 2024; Marciano et al., 2022).