3.1 Efficient cropping zones of cumin in Gujarat
Cumin is cultivated in 21 districts of Gujarat in an area of 352657 ha with production of 307702 tons. The highest area of 95176 ha under cumin cultivation was observed in Surendranagar followed by 67710 ha in Banaskantha and 49082 ha in Patan. Similar trend was observed in production scenario of cumin in the state. Highest production was recorded in Surendranagar (98282 t) followed by Banaskantha (66793 t) and Patan (41411 t). Among the major producing districts, highest productivity of 1033 kg/ha was recorded in Surendranagar, well above the state productivity of 872 kg/ha. Banaskantha recorded 986 kg/ha and Patan 844 kg/ha.
Based on relative yield index and relative spread index, the different districts in the state are categorised as follows: efficient zone (Panchamahal); efficient zone with little year to year variation (Banaskantha, Jamnagar + Devbhumi, Porbandar, Patan, Rajkot + Morbi and Surendranagar); efficient zone with medium year to year variation (Kutch); efficient zone with great year to year variation (Bhavnagar, Junagadh, Kheda and Mehsana); not efficient zone with greater variation (Ahmedabad + Botad) and not efficient zone with little variation (Amreli, Anand, Gandhinagar and Sabarkantha + Aravalli) (Fig. 1).
3.2 Efficient cropping zones of cumin in Rajasthan
Cumin is cultivated in 28 districts of Rajasthan with a total area of 443582 ha and a production of 164751 tons. The major districts cultivating cumin in the state are Barmer (122751 ha), Jodhpur (104199 ha), Jalore (83647 ha), Nagaur (47196 ha), Jaisalmer (23281 ha) and Pali (13465 ha). The highest production of 45180 t was recorded in district of Jodhpur followed by Jalore (37180 t) and Barmer (34897 t). The state productivity of cumin was 371 kg/ha while the highest productivity of 565 kg/ha was observed in Karauli and the least in Churu (220 kg/ha).
Based on relative yield index and relative spread index, the different districts in the state are categorised as follows: most efficient zone (Nagaur); efficient zone (Dausa, Dholpur, Dungarpur Jhunjhumn, Karauli and S Madhopur); efficient zone with little year to year variation (Barmer, Jaisalmer, Jalore and Jodhpur); efficient zone with medium year to year variation (Ajmer, Pali and Sirohi); efficient zone with great year to year variation (Baran, Bhilwara, Bikaner, Bundi, Chittorgarh, Jaipur, Jhalawar, Kota, Pratapgarh, Rajsamand, Sikar, Tonk and Udaipur) and not efficient zone with little variation (Churu) (Fig. 1).
3.3 Identification of climate analogues sites for cumin cultivation in future using CCAFS climate analogues tool
3.3.1 Reference sites
For identifying the climate analogues, the most important aspect is the selection of reference sites. Efficient districts which contributed to 90 % of country’s cumin production and among efficient districts, those which contribute more than 10000 t production were selected as reference sites. This comprised of 14 districts from the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan (Table 3).
Table 3
Reference sites used for climate analogues tool
District
|
Area (ha)
|
*Production (t)
|
Productivity
(kg/ha)
|
RYI
|
RSI
|
RYI-RSI
Average
|
Category
|
Surendranagar
|
90243
|
91738
|
1004
|
116
|
366
|
241
|
2a
|
Banaskantha
|
62758
|
61487
|
976
|
113
|
243
|
178
|
2a
|
Jodhpur
|
100789
|
45303
|
456
|
118
|
329
|
224
|
2a
|
Patan
|
44802
|
37200
|
809
|
94
|
492
|
293
|
2a
|
Jalore
|
81989
|
36025
|
599
|
155
|
530
|
343
|
1
|
Barmer
|
116306
|
31630
|
268
|
70
|
308
|
189
|
3
|
Nagaur
|
43094
|
21401
|
492
|
128
|
149
|
138
|
1
|
Jamnagar
|
25450
|
20232
|
827
|
96
|
118
|
107
|
2a
|
Morbi
|
19000
|
19570
|
1030
|
119
|
271
|
195
|
2a
|
Porbandar
|
17963
|
15615
|
899
|
104
|
405
|
255
|
2a
|
Rajkot
|
20206
|
14475
|
698
|
81
|
87
|
84
|
2b
|
Kutch
|
20103
|
13479
|
662
|
77
|
91
|
84
|
2b
|
Ahmedabad
|
25670
|
12796
|
513
|
59
|
142
|
101
|
3
|
Junagadh
|
13770
|
9830
|
753
|
87
|
73
|
80
|
2c
|
3.3.2 Analogues sites
Based on the reference sites listed Table 3, climate analogues sites were identified using CCAFS Climate Analogues tool. There are mainly 52 existing sites (districts) of cumin cultivation in India (Table 4). The Climate Analogues tool has identified 453 analogues sites for cumin cultivation in future. Besides Gujarat and Rajasthan, a few sites in the states of Uttar pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, West Bengal, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Bihar also showed high similarity to the existing sites of cultivation (Table 4, Fig. 2).
Table 4
Climate analogues sites (pooled from all reference sites) as identified by CCFAS Climate Analogues tool and further refined using soil suitability
Existing sites of cumin cultivation
|
New sites identified for cultivation during 2020–2049 using CCAFS Climate analogues tool
|
State
|
No. of districts
|
State
|
Total no. of districts
|
No. of districts with soil suitability
|
Gujarat
|
23
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
9
|
9
|
Rajasthan
|
29
|
Arunachal Pradesh
|
1
|
1
|
Total
|
52
|
Assam
|
2
|
1
|
|
Bihar
|
38
|
38
|
Chhattisgarh
|
27
|
1
|
Delhi
|
11
|
11
|
Goa
|
2
|
2
|
Gujarat
|
10
|
10
|
Haryana
|
22
|
22
|
Karnataka
|
24
|
5
|
Kerala
|
6
|
0
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
51
|
51
|
Maharashtra
|
36
|
34
|
Meghalaya
|
2
|
0
|
Mizoram
|
1
|
1
|
Odisha
|
27
|
0
|
Jharkhand
|
24
|
2
|
Punjab
|
22
|
22
|
Rajasthan
|
4
|
4
|
Telangana
|
31
|
28
|
Tripura
|
3
|
0
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
75
|
75
|
Uttarakhand
|
2
|
2
|
West Bengal
|
23
|
18
|
Total
|
453
|
337
|
3.4 Soil suitability
As the soil data is not included in the tool, soil suitability data was also incorporated to the identified analogues sites. The results showed that out of 453 analogues sites identified by the tool, 337 sites showed the soil suitability for cumin cultivation (Table 4, Fig. 3)
3.5 Rainfall trend of climate analogues
Past rainfall data from 1901 to 2010 (for 110 years) was collected from IMD, Pune to analyse the rainfall trend in climate analogues as well as existing sites of the crop. The results indicate that the climate analogues are showing the required rainfall trend for the crop. Among newly identified sites, 182 sites show positive trend (48 significant) and 271 (103 significant) sites show negative rainfall trend. This suggests that as opposed to the existing sites of cultivation, most of the analogues sites are moving towards dryer climate, thus making these sites suitable for cumin cultivation in future.