Baseline characteristics
A total of 1,810 patients were included in the analyses, among whom 1,525 and 285 were comprised in the ETV and TAF groups, respectively. The baseline characteristics of the patients are listed in Table 1. Patients in the ETV group were older (52.3 vs. 49.5 years, p < 0.001) and a higher proportion of patients had diabetes (18.0% vs. 9.5%, p < 0.001) and hypertension (23.3% vs. 16.5%, p = 0.011) and a lower proportion were HBeAg-positive (34.3% vs. 56.8%, p < 0.001), compared to those in the TAF group, respectively. Moreover, the TAF group had higher mean platelet count (179.4 vs. 178.9 ´ 103/mL; p < 0.001) and albumin levels (4.1 vs. 4.0 g/dL, p < 0.001) and lower total bilirubin level (1.0 vs. 1.1 mg/dL, p < 0.001), compared to the ETV group, respectively. However, no significant difference in the proportion of males (60.0% vs. 59.6%, p = 0.912) and liver cirrhosis (29.0% vs. 33.7%; p = 0.116) was observed between the groups.
Clinical outcomes and comparison of baseline characteristics between patients with HCC and those without
Among the entire cohort, 89 (4.9%) patients developed HCC during follow-up, of whom 79 (5.2%) were in the ETV group and 10 (3.5%) were in the in the TAF group (p = 0.231). Patients with HCC were more likely to be older (56.9 vs. 52.1 years, p < 0.001) and male (83.1% vs. 58.7%, p < 0.001) and have hypertension (46.1% vs. 21.0%, p < 0.001), liver cirrhosis (48.3% vs. 28.8%, p < 0.001), and lower mean platelet counts (137 vs. 181 ´ 103/mL, p < 0.001), compared to patients without HCC, respectively (Supplementary Table 2).
The cumulative risk of HCC development at 1, 3, and 5 years was 0.8%, 4.3%, and 10.7% (annual incidence, 1.67 per 100 person-years), respectively, in the ETV group; and 0.0%, 1.4%, and 10.6% (annual incidence, 1.19 per 100 person-years), respectively, in the TAF group (p = 0.252) (Figure 1), representing a HR (reference: ETV group) of 0.681 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.351–1.320; p = 0.255).
Prognostic factors affecting HCC development
Table 2 shows the potential risk factor for HCC development. Male, diabetes, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, FIB-4 index, and albumin levels, but not TAF group, proved to be significant risk factors for HCC development according to univariate analysis. After adjusting such significant univariate predictors, the risk of HCC was not statistically different between the two groups (adjusted HR = 0.646 [95% CI: 0.331–1.258]; p = 0.198).
Next, these identified potential risk predictors were further assessed by multivariate analysis, which revealed that male (adjusted HR = 3.796 [2.159–6.674]; p < 0.001), hypertension (adjusted HR = 3.042 [1.935–4.783]; p < 0.001), liver cirrhosis (adjusted HR = 1.801 [1.184–2.739]; p = 0.006), FIB-4 index (adjusted HR = 1.084 [1.029–1.142]; p = 0.002), and albumin (adjusted HR = 0.954 [0.633–1.438], p = 0.823) were the independent prognostic factors for HCC development.
Clinical outcomes after adjustment by PS-matching
The 1:1 PS-matched analysis generated 285 pairs, of which the standardized mean differences of all variables converged upon almost 0.1 (Supplementary Figure 1), suggesting the appropriate balancing of the variables between the ETV and TAF groups. The baseline characteristics of the two groups are described in Table 3. No significant difference in any variables were observed between the groups (all p > 0.05), except for AST and ALT levels (both p < 0.001). The cumulative risk of HCC development at 1, 3, and 5 years was of 0.7%, 2.6%, and 5.8% (annual incidence: 1.07 per 100 person-years) in the ETV group and was 0.0%, 1.3%, and 10.6% (annual incidence: 1.19 per 100 person-years) in the TAF group (Figure 2; p = 0.952), respectively, representing a HR of 0.973 [95% CI: 0.400–2.368] (p = 0.953).
Clinical outcomes after adjustment by IPTW
The standardized mean differences of all variables after IPTW also converged upon almost 0.1 (Supplementary Figure 2), suggesting the appropriate balancing of the variables between the ETV and TAF groups. The baseline characteristics of the two groups were described in Table 4. No significant differences were observed for most variables between the ETV and TAF groups (all p > 0.05), except for age (p < 0.001), liver cirrhosis (p = 0.034), and the levels of AST (p < 0.001), ALT (p < 0.001), total bilirubin (p = 0.040), and albumin (p = 0.001). The cumulative risk of HCC development at 1, 3, and 5 years was of 0.8%, 4.3%, and 10.6% (annual incidence: 1.67 per 100 person-years) in the ETV group and 0.0%, 2.7%, and 17.2% (annual incidence: 1.89 per 100 person-years), in the TAF group (Figure 3; p = 0.869), respectively, representing a HR of 0.949 [95% CI: 0.696–1.295] (p = 0.743).