The data provided in this paper can be used as input data to develop an energy system model for Chad. As an illustration, these data were used to develop an energy system model using the cost-optimization tool OSeMOSYS for the period 2015-2050. For reference, that model is described in Appendix A and its datafiles are available as Supplementary Materials. Appendix figure A3 for Chad is repeated below. This is purely illustrative. It shows a zero-order model of the production of electricity by technology over the period 2020 to 2050 for a least cost energy future. Using the data described in this article, the analyst can reproduce this, as well as many other scenarios, such as net-zero by 2050, in a variety of energy planning toolkits.
The data provided were collected from publicly available sources, including the reports of international organizations, journal articles and existing model databases. The dataset includes the techno-economic parameters of supply-side technologies, installed capacities, emission factors and final electricity demands. Below shows the different items and their description, in order of appearance, presented in this article.
Item
|
Description of Content
|
Table 1
|
A table showing the estimated installed capacity of different power plant types in Chad for 2015-2018
|
Table 2
|
A table showing techno-economic parameters for electricity generation technologies
|
Table 3
|
A table showing capital cost projections for renewable energy technologies up to 2050
|
Figure 1
|
A graph showing capital cost projections for renewable energy technologies from 2015-2050
|
Table 4
|
A table showing cost and performance parameters for power transmission and distribution technologies
|
Table 5
|
A table showing cost and performance data for refinery technologies
|
Table 6
|
A table showing fuel price projections up to 2050
|
Figure 2
|
A graph showing fuel price projections from 2015-2050
|
Table 7
|
A table showing carbon dioxide emissions factors by fuel
|
Table 8
|
A table showing estimated renewable energy potential in Chad
|
Table 9
|
A table showing estimated fossil fuel reserves in Chad
|
Figure 3
|
A graph showing a final electricity demand projection for Chad from 2015-2070
|
1.1 Existing Electricity Supply System
The total power generation capacity in Chad is estimated at 217.4 MW in 2018 [3,4]. The estimated existing power generation capacity is detailed in Table 1 below [3,4]. The methods used to calculate these estimates are described in more detail in Section 2.1. Data on the installation year of each power plant can be found in the country dataset published on Zenodo.
Table 1: Installed Power Plants Capacity in Chad [3,4]
Electricity Generation Technology
|
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
Light Fuel Oil Power Plant
|
39.48
|
39.48
|
39.48
|
39.48
|
Oil Fired Gas Turbine (SCGT)
|
177.75
|
177.75
|
177.75
|
177.75
|
Off-grid Solar PV
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
1.2 Techno-economic Data for Electricity Generation Technologies
The techno economic parameters of electricity generation technologies are presented in Table 2, including costs, operational lives, efficiencies and average capacity factors. Cost (capital and fixed), operational life and efficiency data were collected from reports by the International Renewable Energy Agency [5,6,7] and are applicable to all of Africa. These cost data include projected cost reductions for renewable energy technologies, which are presented in Table 3. The cost and performance of parameters of fossil electricity generation technologies are assumed constant over the modelling period. In this analysis only fixed power plant costs are considered, which capture variable operation and maintenance costs. Country-specific capacity factors for solar PV, wind and hydropower technologies in Chad were sourced from Renewables Ninja and the PLEXOS-World 2015 Model Dataset [8,9,10,11]. Capacity factors for other technologies were sourced from the International Renewable Energy Agency [6,13] and are applicable to all of Africa. Average capacity factors were calculated for each technology and presented in the table below, with daytime (6am - 6pm) averages presented for solar PV technologies. For more information on the capacity factor data, refer to Section 2.1.
Table 2: Techno-economic parameters of electricity generation technologies [6,8,9,10,11,12]
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW in 2020)
|
Fixed Cost ($/kW/yr in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Efficiency
|
Average Capacity Factor
|
Biomass Power Plant
|
2500.0
|
75.0
|
30
|
0.35
|
0.5
|
Coal Power Plant
|
2500.0
|
78.0
|
35
|
0.37
|
0.85
|
Geothermal Power Plant
|
4000.0
|
120.0
|
25
|
0.8
|
0.79
|
Light Fuel Oil Power Plant
|
1200.0
|
35.0
|
25
|
0.35
|
0.8
|
Oil Fired Gas Turbine (SCGT)
|
1450.0
|
45.0
|
25
|
0.35
|
0.8
|
Gas Power Plant (CCGT)
|
1200.0
|
35.0
|
30
|
0.48
|
0.85
|
Gas Power Plant (SCGT)
|
700.0
|
20.0
|
25
|
0.3
|
0.85
|
Solar PV (Utility)
|
1378.0
|
17.91
|
24
|
1.0
|
0.33
|
CSP without Storage
|
4058.0
|
40.58
|
30
|
1.0
|
0.45
|
CSP with Storage
|
5797.0
|
57.97
|
30
|
1.0
|
0.45
|
Large Hydropower Plant (Dam) (>100MW)
|
3000.0
|
90.0
|
50
|
1.0
|
0.43
|
Medium Hydropower Plant (10-100MW)
|
2500.0
|
75.0
|
50
|
1.0
|
0.43
|
Small Hydropower Plant (<10MW)
|
3000.0
|
90.0
|
50
|
1.0
|
0.43
|
Onshore Wind
|
1489.0
|
59.56
|
25
|
1.0
|
0.26
|
Nuclear Power Plant
|
6137.0
|
184.11
|
50
|
0.33
|
0.85
|
Light Fuel Oil Standalone Generator (1kW)
|
750.0
|
23.0
|
10
|
0.16
|
0.3
|
Solar PV (Distributed with Storage)
|
4320.0
|
86.4
|
24
|
1.0
|
0.33
|
Table 3: Projected costs of renewable energy technologies for selected years to 2050. [5,7]
Renewable Energy Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW)
|
2015
|
2020
|
2025
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Biomass Power Plant
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
Solar PV (Utility)
|
2165.0
|
1378.0
|
984.0
|
886.0
|
723.0
|
723.0
|
CSP without Storage
|
6051.0
|
4058.0
|
3269.0
|
2634.0
|
2562.0
|
2562.0
|
CSP with Storage
|
8645.0
|
5797.0
|
4670.0
|
3763.0
|
3660.0
|
3660.0
|
Large Hydropower Plant (Dam) (>100MW)
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
Medium Hydropower Plant (10-100MW)
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
Small Hydropower Plant (<10MW)
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
3000.0
|
Onshore Wind
|
1985.0
|
1489.0
|
1191.0
|
1087.0
|
933.0
|
933.0
|
Offshore Wind
|
5000.0
|
3972.4
|
3020.9
|
2450.0
|
2275.0
|
2100.0
|
Solar PV (Distributed with Storage)
|
6840.0
|
4320.0
|
3415.0
|
2700.0
|
2091.0
|
2091.0
|
1.3 Techno-economic Data for Power Transmission and Distribution
The techno-economic parameters of transmission and distribution technologies were taken from the Reference Case scenario of The Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA) [13]. According to these data, the efficiencies of power transmission and distribution in Chad are assumed to reach 95.0% and 82.0% respectively in 2030. In the following table, the techno-economic parameters associated with the transmission and distribution network are presented.
Table 4: Techno-economic parameters for transmission and distribution technologies [13]
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Efficiency (2020)
|
Efficiency (2030)
|
Efficiency (2050)
|
Electricity Transmission
|
365
|
50
|
0.95
|
0.95
|
0.95
|
Electricity Distribution
|
2502
|
70
|
0.81
|
0.82
|
0.84
|
1.4 Techno-economic Data for Refineries
Chad has an estimated 20 tb/d domestic refinery capacity [14]. In the OSeMOSYS model, two oil refinery technologies were made available for investment in the future, each with different output activity ratios for Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Light Fuel Oil (LFO). The technoeconomic data for these technologies are shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Techno-economic parameters for refinery technologies [14,15]
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW in 2020)
|
Variable Cost ($/GJ in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Output Ratio
|
Crude Oil Refinery Option 1
|
24.1
|
0.71775
|
35
|
0.9 LFO : 0.1 HFO
|
Crude Oil Refinery Option 2
|
24.1
|
0.71775
|
35
|
0.8 LFO : 0.2 HFO
|
1.5 Fuel Prices
Assumed costs are provided for both imported and domestically-extracted fuels. The fuel price projections until 2050 are presented below. These are generic estimates based on an international oil price forecast [16] and cost estimates for Africa [6]. A detailed explanation of how these estimates were calculated is provided in section 2.2.
Table 6: Fuel price projections to 2050 [16,6]
Commodity
|
Fuel Price ($/GJ)
|
2015
|
2020
|
2025
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Crude Oil Imports
|
13.14
|
12.2
|
12.76
|
14.27
|
16.9
|
19.53
|
Crude Oil Extraction
|
11.95
|
11.09
|
11.6
|
12.97
|
15.36
|
17.75
|
Biomass Imports
|
1.76
|
1.76
|
1.76
|
1.76
|
1.76
|
1.76
|
Biomass Extraction
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
Coal Imports
|
4.9
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
5.5
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
Coal Extraction
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
Light Fuel Oil Imports
|
15.89
|
14.75
|
15.43
|
17.25
|
20.43
|
23.61
|
Heavy Fuel Oil Imports
|
9.56
|
8.87
|
9.28
|
10.38
|
12.29
|
14.2
|
Natural Gas Imports
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
9.45
|
10.3
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
Natural Gas Extraction
|
7.1
|
7.1
|
7.8
|
8.5
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
1.6 Emission Factors
Fossil fuel technologies emit several greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides throughout their operational lifetime. In this analysis, only carbon dioxide emissions are considered. These are accounted for using carbon dioxide emission factors assigned to each fuel, rather than each power generation technology. The assumed emission factors are presented in Table 7.
Table 7: Fuel-specific CO2 Emission Factors [17]
Fuel
|
CO2 Emission Factor (kg CO2/GJ)
|
Crude oil
|
73.3
|
Biomass
|
100
|
Coal
|
94.6
|
Light Fuel Oil
|
69.3
|
Heavy Fuel Oil
|
77.4
|
Natural Gas
|
56.1
|
1.7 Renewable and Fossil Fuel Reserves
Tables 8 and 9 show estimated domestic renewable energy potentials and fossil fuel reserves respectively in Chad. No estimate of hydropower potential could be sourced and this is not thought to be significant.
Table 8: Estimated Renewable Energy Potentials [13,18,19]
|
Unit
|
Estimated Renewable Energy Potential
|
Solar PV
|
TWh/yr
|
10506
|
CSP
|
TWh/yr
|
10284
|
Wind (CF 20%)
|
TWh/yr
|
9165
|
Wind (CF 30%)
|
TWh/yr
|
1519.4
|
Wind (CF 40%)
|
TWh/yr
|
578.3
|
Hydropower
|
MW
|
0
|
Small Hydropower (<10 MW)
|
MW
|
0
|
Geothermal
|
MW
|
0
|
Table 9: Estimated Fossil Fuel Reserves [20,21]
|
Estimated Reserves
|
Total Recoverable Coal (mil. short tons, 2017)
|
0.0
|
Crude Oil Proven Reserves (billion barrels, 2019)
|
1.5
|
Natural Gas Proven Reserves (trillion cubic feet, 2019)
|
0.0
|
1.8 Electricity Demand Projection
Final electricity demand in Chad was estimated at 6.42 PJ in 2018 and is forecasted to reach 24.99 PJ by 2030 and 102.51 PJ by 2050 [3] in a reference scenario. Figure 3 below shows the final electricity demand projection.