COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease to which humans are generally susceptible as effective vaccines, specific therapeutic drugs, and methods of treatment are yet lacking[18, 19]. The infection spreads easily from person to person with convenient transmitting media. Therefore, taking strong control measures against the sources of infection, cutting off the routes of transmission, enhancing social distancing, and improving the protection capability of all people are optimal strategies to combat the infection[20]. WHO has termed this approach as “Non-pharmacological Intervention,” or the “Blocking Strategy”[21, 22].
The present study performed a descriptive and exploratory analysis of COVID-19 confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen City, and demonstrated that the spread of infection in the city was mainly via through two stages, the early stage (from January 9 to February 12, 2020) in which the cases were mainly those imported from Hubei Province (including Wuhan City) and the late stage (from February 13 to April 30, 2020) in which the cases were mainly those imported from abroad[8], while local cases in Shenzhen were at a low level of incidence and prevalence[8]. As of January 14, 2020, when the first suspected case (imported from Wuhan City) was reported, confirmed cases imported from Hubei Province accounted for 75.70% of all the confirmed cases in the early stage (296/391), while the same accounted for only 22.54% in the late stage, indicating that the control measures of the Wuhan city (from January 22, 2020 onwards) reduced the risk of an increase in the number of cases in other cities[21], thereby reducing the pressure of prevention and control of infection in other cities[21].
The number of confirmed cases in Shenzhen imported from other provinces in the late stage (12.68%) increased over those in the early stage (8.44%), indicating that targeted prevention and control measures should be improved and enhanced among the population that migrated to Shenzhen from other provinces at the early stage (from February 14, 2020). The ceased local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shenzhen indicated that Shenzhen municipal government implemented intensive joint prevention and control measures across the community to facilitate the legal tracing of the migration and flow tracks of key persons using advanced technology. These measures and the obtained data enable precise prevention and control, which made up for the defective prevention and control in the early stage and improved the faulty tolerance rate of the containment mechanism. In the late stage, the development of COVID-19 in Shenzhen changed fundamentally with the global pandemic as the cases imported from abroad accounted for the majority of the confirmed cases in the city, suggesting the need for timely adjustment of prevention and control measures (for instance, shutting down international flights). Moreover, precise and scientific prevention and control are effective strategies for coping with the dynamic development of COVID-19 internationally. The local cases in Shenzhen accounted for 15.86% in the early stage and 9.86% in the late stage, which indicated effective, comprehensive blocking strategies and measures such as community prevention and control that were continuously upgraded according to the dynamic development of COVID-19: timely severance of the routes of transmission, stoppage of the local outbreak, and reducing the prevalence among the population. These effective tools are the key measures that timely curbed and effectively quelled the development of COVID-19 in Shenzhen.
COVID-19 asymptomatic infections refer to those positive in nucleic acid testing with nasopharyngeal swabs but developing no novel coronavirus-related symptoms, such as fever, upper respiratory symptoms (cough and sore throat), fatigue, and gastrointestinal symptoms (for example, diarrhea). They are not referred to as “patients” due to the lack of symptoms[6], but they spread the virus easily while keeping frequent contact with others due to their unawareness of the infection[6, 23]. The main reasons for asymptomatic infections might be that the infections are yet to develop clinical manifestations in the early stage of disease treatment or the individuals are strongly immune and develop no clinical manifestations after infection[24]. Such individuals recover after a period or continue to be a carrier. Due to the absence of clinical symptoms, such as cough or sneeze, asymptomatic infections are less prone to discharge their pathogens than confirmed cases, and hence, less prone to spread the virus theoretically.
Asymptomatic infections are difficult to be identified, and lack awareness of protection as they do not know about their infection; so their close contacts might result in the same or higher actual infectivity than confirmed cases[25]. Some studies have found that about 11% of asymptomatic infections turned out to be confirmed cases. According to the studies, in key epidemic areas of COVID-19 (for example, Wuhan City), asymptomatic infections amounted to 30,300/100,000 individuals, and in cities where imported cases accounted for the majority, the ratio of asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases was 1:2.17, the infection rate of COVID-19 in close contacts of asymptomatic infections was 4.11%, and the infection rate of close contacts of COVID-19 confirmed cases from asymptomatic infections showed no statistical significance. In the current study, the proportion of asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen increased continuously over time, indicating that our epidemic prevention measures did avoid the import of cases and that our monitoring system was strongly sensitive and capable of identifying early cases and infections yet developing symptoms.
The asymptomatic infections are the most insidious and leaky source of infection[26]; thus, the capability to identify these should be improved for such a virulent pathogen that enjoys routes of easy transmission. With less virulence discharge and no clinical symptoms, asymptomatic infections cannot be identified spontaneously, thereby rendering it necessary to improve the detection capability (with quantitative fluorescence PCR method, trace sequencing method, serum antibody testing method, and multi-method joint diagnosis method) to recognize the asymptomatic infections, which is crucial for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.
Asymptomatic infections may be identified as follows: Among close contacts of COVID-19 cases; during active detection in the investigation of cluster outbreaks; during active detection of the exposed populations when tracing the infection sources of COVID-19 cases; during active detection of COVID-19 cases and persons with travel or residential history in regions of constant transmission.
Another study demonstrated that in Shenzhen City, the proportion of asymptomatic infections from January 19 to April 30, 2020 increased over time (day-by-day), which might be because of the following reasons: 1. We focused mainly on treating symptomatic infections (especially severe and critical ones) in the early stage of the outbreak and paid great attention to the prevention and treatment of asymptomatic infections only when the progress was consolidated in domestic epidemic prevention and control; 2. The continuous improvement of the detection capability and level and testing intensity enhanced the active identification of asymptomatic infections; 3. The pathogen might become less virulent and more insidious after infecting people. Asymptomatic infections as a more insidious source of infection accelerated the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, multiple nucleic acid testing stations were set up based on the active identification and screening, allowing those should be tested and those willing to be tested both to be tested. Moreover, the measures to avoid imported cases, such as carrying out pre-examination at fever clinics and in inpatients, were taken to identify as many asymptomatic infections as possible and prevent the local outbreak of COVID-19.
The number of asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen in April showed a significant increase over that in March, according to our study, although the proportion of the entrants to the city did not increase over time. If international flights were gradually allowed to land in Shenzhen, the proportion of asymptomatic infections in entrants to the city might increase. To this end, it is critical to take strict prevention and control measures, strictly isolate and test the entrants to the city, screen out asymptomatic infections, implement strict medical quarantine and observation measures, and perform active and early treatment, so as to avoid further spread of COVID-19.
Confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections entering Shenzhen from abroad originated mainly from 11 countries, and the ratio of asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases (between 0.00% and 50.00%) had no statistical significance. This finding suggested that all individuals imported to Shenzhen from different countries regardless of the severity of COVID-19 in such countries have to be treated indistinguishably and conscientiously, without ignoring the entrants from countries with less severe development of COVID-19. In addition, stringent medical quarantine measures need to be exercised over all entrants to Shenzhen from abroad, which might extend the duration of medical observation of entrants engaging in people-intensive service industries (such as restaurant workers and market and supermarket workers) (quarantine of 21 days, i.e., allow them to work only after 14 days centralized medical observation plus 7 days of home observation) and increase the frequency of nucleic acid testing, in order to identify as many asymptomatic infections as possible.
At present, with the global pandemic of COVID-19[27], which has no defined duration, there is always a risk of imported sources of infection and China will always face the risk of imported cases as long as the pandemic is not under effective control, and as insidious sources of transmission, asymptomatic infections may also be one of the major risks in the future development of COVID-19[28]. Thus, normalized prevention and control measures are required for the prevention and control of COVID-19 at such a time when there are few local cases and a few imported cases and asymptomatic infections[27]. The professional institutions are required to perform effective disease detection and monitoring, build a sensitive, efficient, long-lasting, and well-run monitoring system, identify the epidemic as early as possible and take timely and scientific emergency disposal measures, and continue effective publicity and education on the prevention and control of COVID-19 while maintaining social distancing and wearing masks in crowded places to avoid the second outbreak of COVID-19 due to slack[29].