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Article
Zhiyong Liu
Sun Yat-sen University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6930-5879
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Climate variability is nothing new. Of rising concern is the consecutive occurrence of reversed weather patterns — droughts followed by severe floods, which tip a precarious balance with lasting impacts on human and natural systems. Here we examined changes in the likelihood and spatial distribution of dry-to-wet precipitation events over global land surface using climate model projections. We find anthropogenic climate change is likely to stress more widespread regions with rapid see-saw changes from dry to wet spells by the end of the 21st Century, increasing the threat to water security. Additionally, Eastern North America, South and East Asia, and Eastern Africa are emerging future hotspots of extreme drought-deluge swings by yielding marked enhancements in the events’ occurrence probability and spatial coverage. This study can provide useful information for policy makers to develop integrated approach to drought and flood management, while broadening the scope of research on compound climate extremes.
Keywords
dry-to-wet transition, anthropogenic climate change, global droughts, floods, risk
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- FigureS1.jpg
Long-term averaged monthly precipitation (mm) for 1920-1960 (a), 1960-2000 (b), 2020-2060 (c) and 2060-2100 (d).
- FigureS2.jpg
Differences in the long-term averaged monthly precipitation (mm) for 1960-2000 (a), 2020-2060 (b) and 2060-2100 (c) relative to the period of 1920-1960.
- FigureS3.jpg
The probability of dry-to-wet precipitation events for four forty-year periods including 1920-1960 (a), 1960-2000 (b), 2020-2060 (c) and 2060-2100 (d). The dry-to-wet transition events are defined as the occurrence of two consecutive years during which the annual total precipitation falls under the 20th percentile of the baseline climatology (in the first year) and subsequently exceeds the 80th percentile of the same reference (in the following year).
- FigureS4.jpg
The upper and lower uncertainty range of dry-to-wet transition probability arising from the internal variability of the CESM simulations. The dry-to-wet transition events are derived with respect to the 30th and 70th percentiles of the baseline precipitation climatology.
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Article
Zhiyong Liu
Sun Yat-sen University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6930-5879
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 07 Aug, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Climate variability is nothing new. Of rising concern is the consecutive occurrence of reversed weather patterns — droughts followed by severe floods, which tip a precarious balance with lasting impacts on human and natural systems. Here we examined changes in the likelihood and spatial distribution of dry-to-wet precipitation events over global land surface using climate model projections. We find anthropogenic climate change is likely to stress more widespread regions with rapid see-saw changes from dry to wet spells by the end of the 21st Century, increasing the threat to water security. Additionally, Eastern North America, South and East Asia, and Eastern Africa are emerging future hotspots of extreme drought-deluge swings by yielding marked enhancements in the events’ occurrence probability and spatial coverage. This study can provide useful information for policy makers to develop integrated approach to drought and flood management, while broadening the scope of research on compound climate extremes.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
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