This study demonstrated the changes in the number of ICU beds and ICU bed-days at the national and administrative district levels over a period of 9 years. The number of ICU beds available serve as a cornerstone for providing life-saving support for critically ill patients.21 We investigated whether there was a discrepancy between the demand for critical care and ICU bed supply based on this concept. We showed that the number of hospitals and hospital beds increased nationally. However, the number of ICU beds, the ICU bed rate per 100,000 adult population, and the ICU bed rate per 100,000 older adult population decreased nationally over the 9 years of investigation. The number of ICU bed-days in the adult and older adult populations increased during the same period. A significant discrepancy was found between the supply and demand of ICU beds in South Korea.
In the US, the number of acute care hospitals decreased, while the number of ICU beds substantially increased from 2000 to 2009 (15.1%).22 The ICU bed rate for individuals aged ≥ 20 years remained constant, while that for individuals aged ≥ 65 years decreased by 2.0% over this period in the US. In South Korea, the number of ICU beds, ICU bed rate per adult population, and ICU bed rate per older adult population decreased from 2011 to 2019 by 6.1%, 13.3%, and 33%. The reason for this decline is the decrease in the number of ICU beds. However, the aging of the population seems to be another major factor. The population of South Korea is aging rapidly, and the population aged 65 years or older is expected to comprise 20% of the total population in 2025.23 In the US, the increase in the percentage of older adult patients affected utilization, including that of ICU beds and specialists.7,9 In the Netherlands, the percentage of hospital admissions of older adults rose between 2005 and 2014; however, the percentage of ICU bed-days remained stable. In our study, the older adult population size and their number of ICU bed-days increased by 40.9% and 48.0%, respectively, from 2011 to 2019.
Our data also revealed regional disparities in the number of ICU beds and ICU bed-days among the adult and older adult populations. The 90th percentile values of the ICU bed rate per adult population and per older adult population were almost the value of the 10th percentile in 2019. Regarding the number of ICU bed-days in the adult population, the regional difference was 3.0 times the difference of the 10th percentile in 2019. Notably, disparities in the number of ICU bed-days for the older adult population between administrative districts widened in 2019 (4.6 times of the 90th percentile to the 10th percentile) compared with that in 2011 (3.4 times of the 90th percentile to the 10th percentile). We expressed the intensity of ICU bed rates and ICU bed-days visually using a map of South Korea (Fig. 2) and observe that areas with high-intensity ICU bed rates were different from those with high-intensity ICU bed-days. In 2019, the sum of the number of ICU bed-days of two regions, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, constituted 42.7% of the total number of ICU bed-days of the adult population (Additional file 3) and 40.9% of the total number of ICU bed-days of the older adult population (Additional file 4). As the ICU beds of Seoul and Gyeonggi-do constitute 41.7% of the total number of ICU beds in South Korea, these regional disparities may reflect the centralization of the healthcare system.
We projected future ICU demands using the ARIMA model, based on the number of ICU bed-days in the nine years recorded in the HIRA database. This model has been adopted in previous studies to forecast the number of bed-days by retrospectively analyzing data from the Medicare Health Maintenance Organization24 and the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Core Database,13 which are structurally similar to the HIRA database. We predicted that ICU bed demands would outpace ICU bed supply in 2030, not only in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, where healthcare resources are concentrated, but also in Daegu, Chungcheongnam-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do. Among them, Chungcheongnam-do (70.9) and Gyeongsangnam-do (78.6) showed the lowest ICU bed rates per 100,000 older adult population (Additional file 5). Without proper critical healthcare policies, these regions may experience problems in terms of ICU bed availability.
Studies on ICU bed availability have been conducted extensively, revealing considerable variability worldwide9,25 even within individual countries.22,26 In Europe, there were 11.5 critical care beds per 100,000 population, with significant differences between countries (Germany: 29.2 and Portugal: 4.2).25 There were 3.6 critical care beds per 100,000 population in Asia, with marked differences according to the World Bank income classification, i.e., a median of 2.3 and 12.3 critical care beds per 100,000 low- and high-income populations, respectively.27 Among the high-income countries, in 2017, South Korea was ranked third-lowest, after Japan (7.3) in terms of the number of ICU beds per population. Ohbe et al.28 reported that the 4-year mean ICU bed occupancy rate did not change from 2015 to 2018 in Japan. In contrast, our results revealed that the occupancy rate increased annually in South Korea.
The proportion of the older adult population is fast approaching 20% of the population of South Korea. However, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and older in Japan was already 23.1% in 2010.29 There were attempts to reform the national healthcare system to accommodate the country's increasing aging population.30,31 South Korea's national health insurance, which covers its whole population, utilizes fee-for-service payment with a contract-based healthcare reimbursement system.32 The reimbursement rate is generally low, particularly for the cost for ICU resources, and hospital administrators are reluctant to invest in ICU resources, including beds.33 Our study revealed that occupancy rate may become ca. 100% in 2030 if there is no increase in the number of ICU beds.
This study had several limitations. Occupancy rates were calculated by dividing the number of ICU bed-days by the number of bed-days available. The term "bed-days available" indicated "potential" bed-days and was not derived from individual-level data. Additionally, day-based occupancy calculations can cause a misinterpretation of the hospital's capacity.34 Additionally, our prediction of future ICU demands was based on a study over a relatively short period.