Linear Regression Model for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths Based on May/June Data in Ethiopia

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-61667/v1

Download PDF

Research Article

Linear Regression Model for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths Based on May/June Data in Ethiopia

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-61667/v1

This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License

Journal Publication

published 19 Aug, 2020

Read the published version in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics →

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

Introduction: On the 15^th of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2^nd and 15^th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using a linear regression model.

Methods: In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12^th May to 10^th June 2020 in Ethiopia.

Results: There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19.

Conclusions: The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9^th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centres. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.

Biostatistics

Health Policy

COVID-19 New Cases

New Deaths

Number of Days

Laboratory Tests

New Recoveries

Correlation Coefficient

Linear Regression Model

Table 1: Percentage and rates of COVID-19 cases from 14^th of March to 10 of June and from 12^th May to 10^th June in Ethiopia, 2020

No.	Variable	Date
No.	Variable	14^th March to 10^th June (90 days)	12^th May to 10^th June (30 days)
	Daily laboratory tests	158, 521	121, 938 (77%)
	COVID-19 new cases	2, 506 (1.58%)	2, 257 (1.85%)
	New deaths	35 (1.4%)	30 (1.3%)
	New recoveries	401 (16%)	294 (13%)

Table 2: Prevalence of COVID-19 new cases by gender and region from 12^th May to 10^th June (for the last 30 days) in Ethiopia, 2020

No.	Prevalence by Category	# of days	Total	%
1.	Gender		2,257	100
	Male	30	1,441	64
	Female	30	816	36
2.	Region		2,237	99
	Addis Ababa City	30	1,671	74
	Oromia Region	30	130	6
	Amhara Region	30	134	6
	Tigray Region	30	78	3
	Somali Region	30	157	7
	Other Regions	30	67	3
	Other (Foreign Natives)	30	20	1
3.	Patient’s History		1,095	100
	Case had travel history from abroad	22	283	26
	Case had contact with confirmed case	22	218	20
	Case hadn’t known his/her contact & travel history	22	594	54

Table 3: Descriptive statistics of the COVID-19 cases from 12^th May to 10^th June (for the last 30 days) in Ethiopia, 2020

No.	Variables	Min.	Max.	Mean	S.D
1.	Daily laboratory tests	1775	6,187	4,065	1,094
2.	COVID-19 new cases	2	190	75	57
	New cases from Addis Ababa city	0	153	56	48
3.	Minimum age of new cases	0.1	24	9.4	6.9
4.	Maximum age of new cases	33	115	71	18

Table 4: Correlation analysis for the relationship b/n COVID-19 New Cases and related variables

COVID-19

New Cases

(r- value, α-value)

Number

of days

(0.901,0.000^**)

Daily

Labor.tests

(0.641,0.000^**)

New recoveries

(0.389,0.034^**)

New cases

from males

(0.985,0.000^**)

New cases

from females

(0.964, 0.000^**)

New cases from AA City

(0.965,0.000^**)

New cases from Foreign Natives

(0.416, 0.022^*)

New cases had contact with other infected persons

(0.534, 0.010^*)

New cases had unknown contact and travel histories

(0.958, 0.000^**)

Table 5: Correlation analysis for the relationship b/n New Deaths of COVID19 and related variables

Number

of Days

(0.648,

0.000^**)

Daily laboratory tests

(0.445,

0.014^*)

COVID-19

New Cases

(0.555, 0.001^**)

New cases from AA city

(0.533, 0.002^**)

New recoveries

(0.753, 0.000^**)

New Deaths

(r- value, α-value)

New cases

of male

(0.530, 0.003^**)

New cases

of female

(0.562, 0.001^**)

New cases of minimum age

(-0.426, 0.019^*)

New cases of maximum age

(0.400, 0.028^*)

Table 6: Simple linear regression for estimating the parameter to predict COVID-19 New Cases

Variable	B₀	B	S.E(B)	t-value	*P-value*	95% CI (β)
Number of days	-378	5.9	0.51	11.0	*0.000^*	4.8	6.9
New laboratory tests	-61	0.034	0.0	4.4	*0.000^*	0.0	0.0
New recoveries	57.3	1.83	0.82	2.21	*0.034*	0.15	3.5
New cases of male	-0.63	1.58	0.12	30.5	0.000^**	1.5	1.7
New cases of female	9.7	2.4	0.13	19.1	0.000^**	2.2	2.7
New cases of Addis Ababa city	10.8	1.2	0.14	19.6	*0.000^*	1.0	1.3
New cases had contact with infected persons	26.2	2.38	0.83	2.8	*0.010^	0.6	4.1
New cases had unknown contact and travel histories	18.1	1.2	0.12	14.9	*0.000^*	1.0	1.3
New cases from foreign natives	62.5	19.2	7.91	2.42	*0.02^	2.9	35.6

Table 7: Simple linear regression for estimating the parameter to predict new deaths of COVID-19

Variable	B₀	B	S.E(B)	t-value	P-value	95% CI (β)
Number of days	-8.6	0.124	0.03	4.49	*0.000^*	0.07	0.18
Daily laboratory tests	-1.8	0.001	0.00	2.63	*0.014^	0.00	0.001
COVID-19 new cases	-0.23	0.016	0.01	3.533	*0.001^*	0.01	0.03
New recoveries	-0.02	0.104	0.02	6.06	*0.000^*	0.07	0.14
New cases of male	-0.2	0.03	0.01	3.31	*0.003^*	0.01	0.04
New cases of female	-1.2	0.04	0.01	3.59	*0.001^*	0.02	0.07
New cases from AA city	-0.05	0.02	0.01	3.33	*0.002^*	0.01	0.03
New cases of minimum age	2.0	-0.11	0.04	-2.49	*0.019^*	-0.2	-0.02
New cases of maximum age	-1.7	0.04	0.02	2.31	*0.028^	0.00	0.07

^** and ^*indicate that the variables are significant at the 1% and 5% levels of significance, respectively.

Download PDF

Journal Publication

published 19 Aug, 2020

Read the published version in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics →

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

Linear Regression Model for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths Based on May/June Data in Ethiopia

Status:

Journal Publication

Version 1

Abstract

Figures

Full Text

Tables

Status:

Journal Publication

Version 1