Reducing carbon emissions per capita has been one of the vital goals of sustainable development of the world's energy and human health since the 18th century. Unfortunately, China had become one of the world's largest carbon emitting country for the last 13 years which carbon dioxide emissions accounting for more than 25% of the world's total carbon emissions in 2018. Therefore, this article firstly to apply the IPAT and STIRPAT model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions per capita which will be used to build the VENSIM model. It can be conducted that the main factors including industrial structure, energy structure, population and technology factors and social fixed assets investment. Then, the paper carries out for three simulating scenarios which are baseline scenario, reduction scenario and limited scenario, respectively.The simulation results show that the total CO2 intensity of the limited scenario will reach 0.80 million tons/per yuan as the lowest point in 2030. Finally, the paper combines carbon system simulation results, based on the influence factors of city carbon emissions system, low carbon economy, energy and social system of low carbon city development suggestions are put forward to solve these issues.