According to the above weights combined with standardized data, a comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the forest ecological security of 85 counties and districts in Hubei Province from 1999 to 2014, and the forest ecological security index was calculated. According to the value of forest ecological security index level and the characteristics of ecosystem evolution, referring to the research results of Jiang Weiguo and Nan Ying, through the GIS technical analysis module, and referring to the evaluation level, the evaluation results of the forest ecological security index were divided into five levels: excellent (0.8 ~ 1.0) and good (0.6 ~ 0.8), general (0.4 ~ 0.6), relatively poor (0.2 ~ 0.4) and poor (0 ~ 0.2), and a spatial distribution map was made (Fig. 3).
From the overall situation of forest ecological security, in 2014, the number of excellent counties accounted for 14.12%, the number of good counties accounted for 78.82%, and the number of general counties accounted for 7.06%. The overall status of Hubei Province is in a good condition, which can exert the service function of the forest ecosystems relatively well. The forest ecosystem is in a sustainable state. From 1999 to 2014, the changes in the forest ecological security level of the county in Hubei Province are shown in Fig. 3. From 1999 to 2014, the forest ecological security situation in Hubei Province has improved to a certain extent. Most county ecological security conditions are at the "general" level, and there is no "excellent" level. In 1999, there was a "poor" county for forest ecological security, and from 2004 to 2014, the county changed from "poor" to "relatively poor" and eventually developed into "general." From 1999 to 2009, the number of "relatively poor" counties gradually decreased until 2014, when the number was zero. From 1999 to 2004, the level of forest ecological security in some counties fell from "good" to "general". From 2009 to 2014, the ecological status of such areas improved.
Hubei's “Two Circles and One Belt” refers to: Wuhan City Circle, Western Hubei Eco-Cultural Tourism Circle and Yangtze River Economic Belt. Due to the locational conditions, natural geographic conditions and the differences in forest resources among counties, the distribution of forest ecological conditions among counties are uneven. Wuhan City Circle refers to Wuhan, the largest city in the central region, covering 8 large and medium-sized cities around Huangshi, Ezhou, Huanggang, Xiaogan, Xianning, Xiantao, Tianmen, and Qianjiang. Huangshi is the deputy central city of the city circle. The Western Hubei Eco-Cultural Tourism Circle includes 8 cities (forest areas) including Xiangyang, Jingzhou, Yichang, Shiyan, Jingmen, Suizhou, Enshi, and Shennongjia located in the west of Hubei, and is an important ecological function zone in the country.
In the Wuhan City Circle, the forest ecological safety index of all counties is above 0.4, indicating that the forest ecosystems in these counties are still stable and can play a basic forest ecological function. Good counties account for 83.78%, and Yunmeng County in Xiaogan iand Huangzhou District in Huanggang, as well as the Huangshigang District, Shihuiyao District, Tieshan District and Xialu District in the sub-central cities of the Wuhan City Circle, are in a general state. Overall, the forest ecological safety status of the Wuhan City Circle is relatively good. At the same time, the forest ecological security status of Wuhan is good, and only the Daye County and Yangxin County of Huangshi City are good. Therefore, the forest ecological security status of Wuhan City, the central city circle of Hubei Province, is better than that of Huangshi, the sub-central city of the city circle.
In theWestern Hubei Eco-Cultural Tourism Circle, the forest ecological safety index of all counties is above 0.6, indicating that the forest ecological safety status of these counties is better, and the excellent counties account for 1/4. Especially, the forest ecology of the Shennongjia forest area has the highest safety index in Hubei Province, and its forest coverage rate has reached more than 90%. Compared with the Wuhan City Circle, the forest ecological security in the Western Hubei Eco-Cultural Tourism Circle is better. This conclusion coincides with the Hubei Province ’s strategic layout of the “Two Circles and One Belt”, which shows that the evaluation results of this indicator system are relatively realistic.
Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the evaluation results of forest ecological security in Hubei Province from 1999 to 2014. It can be seen from Fig. 4 that from the perspective of spatial distribution, the distribution of forest ecological security index in Hubei Province is uneven, and the forest ecological security status in western Hubei is better, among which Shennongjia forest area is the best. The forest ecological security status of Shiyan City, Enshi City and Yichang City is relatively good, followed by the eastern part of Hubei Province, Huanggang, Huangshi and Xianning areas, and that of the central part is lower. In 2008, Hubei Province began to construct the "Western Hubei Ecological Cultural Tourism Circle", areas in which have become the focus of protection, in cluding the world cultural heritage, world intangible cultural heritage, national nature reserves, national intangible cultural heritage, national scenic spots and national geoparks. The large investment in the development of the tourism circle not only has protecte the water source of the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, but also has produced huge ecological value and tourism benefits. It has truly achieved good and rapid development. Therefore, Hubei Province ’s Ecological practice has verified that the improvement of forest ecological security status can lead to a win-win situation of ecological, social and economic benefits.
From the perspective of time trends, the forest ecological security index of Hubei Province was 0.49 in 1999 and rose by 4.08% in 2014. This result shows that: first, the overall forest ecological security status of Hubei Province is relatively good, and it shows a favorable change trend. Second, the forest ecological security index of Hubei Province has not increased much in the past 16 years. From the perspective of county distribution, 78.82% of the counties showed an upward trend, indicating that the quality of forest ecological safety in most counties has been improved. The counties with the most obvious increase was Huanggang District of Wuhan City Circle (56.73%), Yunmeng County of Xiaogan (47.48%) and Shiyan Danjiangkou City (26.58%) in the Western Hubei Ecological Cultural Tourism Circle. The majority (74.12%) of the counties' growth rate remained within 20%. 12.94% of the counties' forest ecological safety index showed a downward trend. Among them, Huangshigang District, Shihuiyao District, Tieshan District and the Xialu District of Huangshi City, the sub-central city of the urban circle, had more obvious declines. The reason for the decline is that the wastewater and SO2 discharge in economic growth increased the pressure on forest ecosystems. The forest ecological security situation in 7 counties including Dongmen District of Jingmen and Dangyang City of Yichang remained basically unchanged. Overall, the forest ecological security system in Hubei Province is more stable and healthy, but the forest ecological security index of a few counties shows a downward trend.