Forty-nine patients with respiratory failure, aged ≥ 18 years, who required an HFNC or mechanical ventilator during the study period, were included in this study (Fig. 1).
Table 1 shows the baseline characteristics of patients at the time of ICU admission. The median age of patients was 71.0 years and proportion of males was 59.2%. There was no significant difference in the age, sex, presence of hypertension, IL-6, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio at the time of ICU admission between the survivor and non-survivor groups. However, the proportion of diabetes mellitus was significantly higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (60% vs. 25.6%, p = 0.041). Furthermore, sIL-2R, creatinine, troponin, and procalcitonin were significantly higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The median sIL-2R was 1159.0 U/mL (IQR 1099.5-1376.5) in the non-survivor group and 853.0 U/mL (IQR 727.5-1150.5) in the survivor group (p = 0.010).
Table 1 Baseline characteristics of patients on the 1st day of admission
Variable
|
Survivors
(n = 39)
|
Non-survivors (n = 10)
|
Total
(n = 49)
|
p-value
|
Age (years)
|
70.0 (64.0, 74.0)
|
78.0 (65.0, 84.8)
|
71.0(64.5, 77.0)
|
0.063
|
Sex, male (%)
|
22 (56.4)
|
7 (70.0)
|
29 (59.2)
|
0.517
|
BMI, kg/m2
|
24.0 (21.4, 25.7)
|
20.4 (18.8, 25.1)
|
24.0 (20.5, 25.5)
|
0.132
|
Hypertension
|
22 (56.4)
|
8 (80.0)
|
30 (61.2)
|
0.176
|
Diabetes
|
10 (25.6)
|
6 (60.0)
|
16 (32.7)
|
0.041
|
PaO2/FiO2, kPa
|
149.8(100.9, 184.3)
|
125.1 (86.3, 229.2)
|
148.7 (96.9, 197.9)
|
0.951
|
ARDS
|
|
|
|
|
Mild
|
9 (23.1)
|
3 (30.0)
|
12 (24.5)
|
|
Moderate
|
21 (53.8)
|
4 (40.0)
|
25 (51.0)
|
|
Severe
|
9 (23.1)
|
3 (30.0)
|
12 (24.5)
|
|
WBC (103/uL)
|
8.6 (6.7, 12.6)
|
6.2 (4.5, 8.5)
|
8.1(6.0, 11.0)
|
0.080
|
Lymphocyte (103/uL)
|
0.8 (0.5, 1.0)
|
0.6 (0.4, 1.0)
|
0.7 (0.5, 1.0)
|
0.517
|
Platelet (103/uL)
|
185.0 (136.0, 246.0)
|
127.5(109.5, 170.8)
|
181.0(126.0, 232.0)
|
0.022
|
Albumin (g/dL)
|
3.7 (3.3, 3.9)
|
3.6 (3.1, 3.8)
|
3.6 (3.3, 3.9)
|
0.358
|
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)
|
0.7 (0.5, 0.9)
|
0.7 (0.5, 1.3)
|
0.7(0.5, 1.0)
|
0.566
|
Bicarbonate (mmol/L)
|
23.0 (21.0, 25.0)
|
22.0 (19.0, 23.5)
|
23.0 (21.0, 24.8)
|
0.164
|
Creatinine (mg/dL)
|
0.7 (0.6, 1.1)
|
1.0 (0.9, 2.3)
|
0.9 (0.6, 1.1)
|
0.012
|
Troponin (pg/mL)
|
12.0 (7.0, 17.3)
|
33.0 (17.5, 75.8)
|
12.0 (8.0, 25.3)
|
0.001
|
LDH (IU/L)
|
527.0 (427.0, 639.0)
|
494.0 (379.8, 652.3)
|
514.0(420.0, 641.5)
|
0.779
|
Procalcitonin (ng/mL)
|
0.3 (0.1, 0.5)
|
0.5 (0.4, 1.2)
|
0.3 (0.1, 0.5)
|
0.009
|
Fibrinogen (mg/dL)
|
471.0(390.8, 613.5)
|
433.0(305.5, 521.5)
|
458.0(381.0, 599.0)
|
0.213
|
D-dimer (ng/mL)
|
480.0(273.0, 1386.0)
|
599.5(328.5, 3858.5)
|
494.0(294.0, 1288.5)
|
0.333
|
Ferritin (ng/mL)
|
787.8(443.6, 1485.7)
|
1056.0(422.1, 1688.0)
|
801.3(446.1, 1485.6)
|
0.505
|
CRP (mg/L)
|
107.6 (59.7, 155.9)
|
140.3 (55.7, 218.4)
|
112.2(59.7, 180.3)
|
0.371
|
IL-6 (pg/mL)
|
65.1(17.8, 147.1)
|
160.1(81.4, 320.7)
|
89.3(19.4, 158.4)
|
0.072
|
Soluble IL2 receptor (U/mL)
|
853.0(727.5, 1150.5)
|
1159.0(1099.5, 1376.5)
|
905.5(740.3, 1230.8)
|
0.010
|
Invasive ventilation
|
11(28.2)
|
4 (40.0)
|
14(32.6)
|
0.582
|
SOFA score
|
3.0 (0.3, 8.3)
|
3.0 (2.8, 4.0)
|
3.0 (3.0, 3.0)
|
0.385
|
APACHE II score
|
24.0 (20.0, 26.0)
|
24.5 (19.0, 28.5)
|
24.0 (20.0, 26.5)
|
0.391
|
Hospital day
|
18.5 (15.0, 24.3)
|
21.5 (13.5, 33.0)
|
19.0(15.0, 25.3)
|
0.695
|
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome; WBC, white blood cell; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6; IL-2, interleukin-2; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score; APACHE II, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II. |
On the 7th day of hospitalization (Table 2), there were statistically significantly differences in the lymphocyte counts, platelet counts, creatinine, LDH, procalcitonin, CRP, IL-6, and sIL-2R between the two groups. Notably, in the non-survivor group, the sIL-2R on Day 7 was 1313.0 (IQR 1001.3-1963.5), which was higher than that on Day 0, which was 1159.0 (IQR 1099.5-1376.5); however, in the survivor group, sIL-2R levels were decreased on Day 7 (845.0, IQR 563.8-1061.3) compared to that on Day 0 (853.0, IQR 727.5-1150.5). IL-6 concentrations decreased during the course of hospitalization in both groups (survivor group: 17.6 pg/mL, IQR 6.1–51.9; non-survivor group: 100.7 pg/mL, IQR 41.1-244.6).
Table 2 Characteristics of patients on the 7thday of admission
Variable
|
Survivors
(n=39)
|
Non-survivors (n=10)
|
Total
(n=49)
|
p-value
|
PaO2/FiO2, kPa
|
216.0(165.4, 290.1)
|
140.6 (71.3, 160.5)
|
206.7(141.7, 264.5)
|
0.001
|
ARDS
|
|
|
|
|
Mild
|
22 (56.4)
|
2 (20.0)
|
24 (49.0)
|
|
Moderate
|
15 (38.5)
|
5 (50.0)
|
20 (40.8)
|
|
Severe
|
0 (0.0)
|
3 (30.0)
|
3 (6.1)
|
|
WBC (103/uL)
|
11.7 (7.0, 13.2)
|
16.2 (7.7, 21.1)
|
11.8 (7.4, 16.0)
|
0.189
|
Lymphocyte (103/uL)
|
0.8 (0.5, 1.2)
|
0.4 (0.2, 0.5)
|
0.7 (0.4, 1.2)
|
0.005
|
Platelet (103/uL)
|
272.0 (187.0, 362.0)
|
117.0 (72.0, 173.8)
|
242.0 (152.0, 353.0)
|
0.001
|
Albumin (g/dL)
|
2.9 (2.7, 3.2)
|
2.8 (2.7, 3.0)
|
2.9 (2.7, 3.2)
|
0.235
|
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)
|
0.6 (0.4, 0.9)
|
0.7 (0.4, 1.0)
|
0.6 (0.4, 0.9)
|
0.795
|
Bicarbonate (mmol/L)
|
25.0 (24.0, 29.0)
|
24.0 (23.0, 28.8)
|
25.0 (23.0, 29.0)
|
0.416
|
Creatinine (mg/dL)
|
0.6 (0.5, 0.7)
|
0.9 (0.7, 2.0)
|
0.6 (0.5, 0.8)
|
0.001
|
LDH (IU/L)
|
402.0(320.5, 475.3)
|
532.0 (432.5, 637.5)
|
420.0 (334.0, 532.0)
|
0.013
|
Procalcitonin (ng/mL)
|
0.1 (0.0, 0.1)
|
0.2 (0.1, 0.7)
|
0.1 (0.1, 0.2)
|
0.008
|
Fibrinogen (mg/dL)
|
384.5 (348.5, 434.3)
|
440.5 (256.8, 543.0)
|
399.0 (349.0, 458.0)
|
0.634
|
D-dimer (ng/mL)
|
982.0 (360.0, 3591.0)
|
1877.5 (454.8, 6152.0)
|
987.5 (373.8, 3787.0)
|
0.338
|
Ferritin (ng/mL)
|
548.1 (334.0, 846.5)
|
592.9 (410.0, 770.5)
|
571.1 (346.1, 840.1)
|
0.746
|
CRP (mg/L)
|
25.6 (8.7, 52.3)
|
65.5 (35.5, 112.0)
|
35.3 (10.1, 54.4)
|
0.016
|
IL-6 (pg/mL)
|
17.9 (6.1, 51.9)
|
100.7 (41.1, 244.6)
|
21.6 (8.0, 87.5)
|
0.001
|
Soluble IL2 receptor (U/mL)
|
845.0 (563.8, 1061.3)
|
1313.0 (1001.3, 1963.5)
|
949.5 (640.0, 1126.3)
|
0.001
|
Invasive ventilation
|
22 (56.4)
|
7 (70.0)
|
27 (59.2)
|
0.617
|
Abbreviations: ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome; WBC, white blood cell; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6; IL-2, interleukin-2. |
Figure 2 shows the scatter plot ofPaO2/FiO2ratio,IL-6, and sIL-2R on Days 0 and 7. , there was no significant correlation between IL-6 and PaO2/FiO2ratio(p=0.738, Figure 2a), as well as sIL-2Rc and PaO2/FiO2ratio (p=0.340, Figure 2b).On Day 7, however, sIL-2Rc was significantly correlated with P/F ratio (p=0.013, Figure 2d); however, IL-6 was not significantly correlated (p=0.167, Figure 2c).
Table 3 shows the baseline characteristics compared between the invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) and non-MV groups. IL-6 and sIL-2R were not associated with MV (p = 0.855 and p = 0.087, respectively).
Table 3 Patients’ demographicsaccording to the application of invasive ventilation
Variable
|
Non-MV group
(n=20)
|
MV group
(n=29)
|
p-value
|
Age (years)
|
71.0 (65.3, 78.6)
|
70.0 (63.0, 75.5)
|
0.653
|
Sex, male (%)
|
10 (50.0)
|
19 (65.5)
|
0.377
|
BMI, kg/m2
|
24.2 (20.3, 25.9)
|
23.8 (20.5, 25.4)
|
0.717
|
PaO2/FiO2, kPa
|
153.2 (127.6, 207.2)
|
123.1 (87.7, 172.9)
|
0.186
|
WBC (103/uL)
|
8.2 (7.1, 10.7)
|
7.7 (5.5, 11.8)
|
0.307
|
Lymphocyte (103/uL)
|
0.6 (0.5, 1.0)
|
0.8 (0.5, 0.9)
|
0.805
|
Platelet (103/uL)
|
182.0 (134.3, 252.0)
|
164.0(118.0, 208.0)
|
0.251
|
Albumin (g/dL)
|
3.8 (3.5, 4.1)
|
3.5 (3.2, 3.8)
|
0.016
|
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)
|
0.6 (0.4, 0.7)
|
0.8 (0.6, 1.2)
|
0.001
|
Bicarbonate (mmol/L)
|
22.0 (20.3, 24.0)
|
23.0 (21.0, 25.0)
|
0.382
|
Creatinine (mg/dL)
|
0.9 (0.7, 1.1)
|
0.8 (0.6, 1.0)
|
0.428
|
Troponin (pg/mL)
|
12.0 (9.3, 21.8)
|
12.5 (7.0, 31.3)
|
0.963
|
LDH (IU/L)
|
507.0(396.3, 569.3)
|
527.0(428.5, 674.5)
|
0.211
|
Procalcitonin (ng/mL)
|
0.4 (0.1, 0.7)
|
0.3 (0.1, 0.5)
|
0.782
|
Fibrinogen (mg/dL)
|
488.0 (414.8, 587.0)
|
445.0(369.0, 615.0)
|
0.414
|
D-dimer (ng/mL)
|
487.0(294.0, 651.5)
|
527.0(294.0, 4301.5)
|
0.185
|
Ferritin (ng/mL)
|
455.6 (365.0, 985.8)
|
1098.2(731.0, 1893.4)
|
0.003
|
CRP (mg/L)
|
111.6 (61.7, 144.6)
|
117.2(59.7, 210.3)
|
0.490
|
IL-6 (pg/mL)
|
100.9 (18.9, 143.8)
|
65.1 (19.4, 191.5)
|
0.855
|
Soluble IL2 receptor (U/mL)
|
867.0(726.8, 1073.8)
|
1036.0(754.0, 1364.3)
|
0.135
|
Hospital day
|
15.0 (11.3, 19.0)
|
22.0 (18.0, 32.0)
|
<0.001
|
Mortality
|
3 (15.0)
|
7 (24.1)
|
0.496
|
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; WBC, white blood cell; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6; IL-2, interleukin-2; MV, mechanical ventilation.
|
Table 4 shows the association between variables including serum markers, and mortality, with Cox regression analysis. The difference in platelet counts between Days 0 and 7 was related to high mortality rates (hazard ratio, HR 0.994, p = 0.019), and the HR per standard deviation (SD) of ΔsIL-2R was 3.145 (p = 0.022) on univariate analysis. The higher the ΔIL-6 per SD, the higher was the mortality rate, though it was not statistically significant (HR 1.664, p = 0.107). Even after correcting several variables using multivariate analysis, ΔsIL-2R was associated with higher mortality, which adjusted the HR to 3.225 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.151–9.037, p = 0.026).
Table 4 Cox regression analysis of risk factors related to in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure
|
Univariable
|
Adjusted
|
Variable
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
p-value
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
p-value
|
Age, years
|
1.077
|
0.983-1.180
|
0.113
|
1.023
|
0.942-1.112
|
0.585
|
Sex, male
|
1.622
|
0.405-6.493
|
0.495
|
|
|
|
Initial P/F ratio
|
0.999
|
0.993-1.005
|
0.781
|
0.997
|
0.990-1.004
|
0.340
|
Δ WBC
|
1.102
|
0.970-1.251
|
0.136
|
|
|
|
Δ lymphocyte
|
0.319
|
0.083-1.227
|
0.096
|
0.741
|
0.096-5.713
|
0.779
|
Δ Platelet
|
0.994
|
0.990-0.999
|
0.019
|
0.993
|
0.986-1.001
|
0.069
|
Δ LDH (IU/L)
|
1.003
|
0.999-1.006
|
0.140
|
|
|
|
Δ Fibrinogen (mg/dL)
|
1.001
|
0.999-1.003
|
0.385
|
|
|
|
Δ Ferritin (ng/mL)
|
0.999
|
0.997-1.001
|
0.502
|
|
|
|
Δ CRP (mg/L)
|
1.003
|
0.996-1.011
|
0.367
|
|
|
|
Δ IL-6/SD
|
1.664
|
0.896-3.088
|
0.107
|
1.234
|
0.594-2.564
|
0.573
|
Δ sIL-2R/SD
|
3.145
|
1.177-8.406
|
0.022
|
3.225
|
1.151-9.037
|
0.026
|
Abbreviations: WBC, white blood cell; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6; sIL-2R, soluble interleukin-2 receptor; SD, standard deviation. |
Figure 3 shows the Kaplan-Meier survival curve of IL-6 and sIL-2R. The cut-off value of IL-6 obtained from thereceiver operating characteristiccurve was 191 pg/mL, and it was significantly related to a highermortality rate (p=0.006, Figure 3a). The patient group with sIL-2R above 1083U/mL was significantly associated with mortality (p=0.040, Figure 3b).