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Identifying Pathways to Accomplish Brazil's NDC Through an Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach
Régis Rathmann
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9778-2843
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
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Background: The increasing awareness about climate change and the adverse effects of global mean temperature increasing beyond +1.5 ∘ C above pre-industrial levels resulted in a historic international climate agreement in December 2015 in Paris. Countries around the globe published their intended Nationally Determined Contributions (hereafter iNDCs)–converted into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), committing to take actions post-2020 to tackle global warming, mainly to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The Brazilian NDC established absolute emissions targets of 1.3 GtCO 2 e by 2025 and of 1.2 GtCO 2 e by 2030 (GWP-100, AR5), corresponding to reductions of 37% and 43%, respectively, compared to 2005. In this work, we studied the role that each economic sector can play to meet the Brazilian NDC through an integrated assessment modeling (IAM) approach.
Results: The analysis showed that the AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use) sector would contribute with mitigation amounts of 25.5 MtCO 2 e in 2025 and 145.8 MtCO 2 e in 2030, considering implementation of no-regret abatement measures (LC0) and LC10 scenario, which implies an economic effort to internalize a carbon price of US$ 10/tCO 2 e in the economy, respectively. Potential emissions reductions in the energy system would contribute to the mitigation of 60.4 MtCO 2 e in 2025 and 211.1 MtCO 2 e in 2030. Additionally, we identified critical measures with higher mitigation potential, for instance, commercially planted forests, integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems, no-tillage systems, biological nitrogen fixation application, intensification of livestock production through cattle confinement, deforestation reduction, expansion of native vegetation, and degraded pastures recovery in the AFOLU sector. Regarding the energy system, the integrated modeling demonstrated high mitigation potential in measures related to energy efficiency in the industry, waste management, and transport sectors; as well as a modal shift from individual to collective passenger transport and highways to railways and waterways to load transportation, and energy utilization of urban solid waste and effluent of treatment plants for the production of biomethane and electricity.
Conclusions: Projected emissions for 2025 demonstrate that the NDC target for this year could be achieved with the LC0 scenario (carbon value equal to zero) implementation, while the NDC target for 2030 could be achieved by implementing the LC10 scenario in 2030.
Keywords
Brazil, Nationally Determined Contribution, integrated assessment modeling, low-carbon scenarios.
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This preprint is under consideration at Carbon Balance and Management. Preprints are preliminary reports that have not undergone peer review. They should not be considered conclusive, used to inform clinical practice, or referenced by the media as validated information.
Learn more about In Review
Research
Identifying Pathways to Accomplish Brazil's NDC Through an Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach
Régis Rathmann
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9778-2843
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 24 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Review #1 received
Received 20 Oct, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 04 Oct, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 25 Sep, 2020
Editor assigned
On 23 Sep, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 22 Sep, 2020
Editor invited
On 22 Sep, 2020
First submitted
On 19 Sep, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Background: The increasing awareness about climate change and the adverse effects of global mean temperature increasing beyond +1.5 ∘ C above pre-industrial levels resulted in a historic international climate agreement in December 2015 in Paris. Countries around the globe published their intended Nationally Determined Contributions (hereafter iNDCs)–converted into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), committing to take actions post-2020 to tackle global warming, mainly to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The Brazilian NDC established absolute emissions targets of 1.3 GtCO 2 e by 2025 and of 1.2 GtCO 2 e by 2030 (GWP-100, AR5), corresponding to reductions of 37% and 43%, respectively, compared to 2005. In this work, we studied the role that each economic sector can play to meet the Brazilian NDC through an integrated assessment modeling (IAM) approach.
Results: The analysis showed that the AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use) sector would contribute with mitigation amounts of 25.5 MtCO 2 e in 2025 and 145.8 MtCO 2 e in 2030, considering implementation of no-regret abatement measures (LC0) and LC10 scenario, which implies an economic effort to internalize a carbon price of US$ 10/tCO 2 e in the economy, respectively. Potential emissions reductions in the energy system would contribute to the mitigation of 60.4 MtCO 2 e in 2025 and 211.1 MtCO 2 e in 2030. Additionally, we identified critical measures with higher mitigation potential, for instance, commercially planted forests, integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems, no-tillage systems, biological nitrogen fixation application, intensification of livestock production through cattle confinement, deforestation reduction, expansion of native vegetation, and degraded pastures recovery in the AFOLU sector. Regarding the energy system, the integrated modeling demonstrated high mitigation potential in measures related to energy efficiency in the industry, waste management, and transport sectors; as well as a modal shift from individual to collective passenger transport and highways to railways and waterways to load transportation, and energy utilization of urban solid waste and effluent of treatment plants for the production of biomethane and electricity.
Conclusions: Projected emissions for 2025 demonstrate that the NDC target for this year could be achieved with the LC0 scenario (carbon value equal to zero) implementation, while the NDC target for 2030 could be achieved by implementing the LC10 scenario in 2030.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.