The novel corona virus is well spread all over the country. There are total 231,238 cases reported from 2nd March to 3rd June 2020 (Table 2). In this study, the region wise data was collected and linked it with point data. The 20 region’s data of Italy has been analyzed to find out the variability. The IDW technique was used to show the current status and magnitude of the infection disease spread (COVID-19) in Italy using ArcGIS 10.5.
Table 2 Region wise breakdown of COVID-19 Statistics in Italy
Region
|
Confirmed Cases
|
Confirmed Deaths
|
Serious Patients
|
Recovered Patients
|
Active Cases
|
Abruzzo
|
3252
|
414
|
3
|
2102
|
736
|
Apulia
|
4499
|
511
|
10
|
2952
|
1036
|
Basilicata
|
399
|
27
|
0
|
349
|
23
|
Calabria
|
1158
|
97
|
0
|
951
|
110
|
Campania
|
4821
|
415
|
4
|
3737
|
869
|
Emilia-Romagna
|
27842
|
4147
|
50
|
20856
|
2839
|
Friuli-Venezia Giulia
|
3276
|
336
|
2
|
2707
|
233
|
Lazio
|
7753
|
747
|
51
|
4188
|
2818
|
Liguria
|
9751
|
1473
|
6
|
7764
|
514
|
Lombardia
|
89442
|
16172
|
131
|
53046
|
20224
|
Marche
|
6735
|
987
|
8
|
4438
|
1310
|
Molise
|
436
|
22
|
2
|
287
|
127
|
Piemonte
|
30734
|
3898
|
44
|
22150
|
4686
|
Sardegna
|
1357
|
131
|
1
|
1080
|
146
|
Sicily
|
3447
|
275
|
7
|
2292
|
880
|
Toscana
|
10121
|
1055
|
25
|
8093
|
973
|
Trento
|
4433
|
463
|
2
|
3748
|
222
|
Umbria
|
1431
|
76
|
2
|
1324
|
31
|
Valle d'Aosta
|
1187
|
143
|
0
|
1031
|
13
|
Veneto
|
19164
|
1921
|
2
|
15856
|
1387
|
Total
|
231,238
|
33,310
|
350
|
158,951
|
39,177
|
*Ministry of Health, Italy (3rd June, 2020)
Interpolation using IDW has been applied with the of purpose of predicting the spread of the coronavirus in Italy. As of June 3, 2020 in Italy a total of 39,177 active cases of coronavirus has been reported. The map obtained from interpolation of active cases as per 3rd June, 2020 which was divided into eight classes using natural break classification method. The pattern of classes is 14 to 1044, 1045 to 2332, 2333 to 3738, 3739 to 5877, 5878 to 8888, 8889 to 12295, 12296 to 15940, 15941 to 20219 as shown in Figure 3. The various regions of Italy are at risk based on population density. More than 50% of active cases were found in northern Italy particularly in the region of Lombardia due to the most populous region of the Italy. It can be observed from Figure 3a that Piemonte region has the second highest active cases with 4686 out of total 39,177 as of 3rd June, 2020. Emilia-Romagna and Lazio regions with 7.25% and 7.19% of active cases respectively. In order to understand the influence of population density, a Pearson correlation co-efficient was performed using COVID-19 data. There was a positive correlation seen in number of active cases of COVID-19 and population density [where r(18) = 0.323)] (Table 3). [(See appendix Figure SI 3(a)].
In Figure 3b the spatial distribution of serious cases has been showed. It can be observed that most dense region (Campania) has only 4 serious cases as per June 3rd, 2020 out of total 350 serious cases. The highest number of serious cases has been taken place in Lombardia 131 (37.42%) followed by Lazio, Emilia-Romagna and Piemonte. Data presented in Table 3 shows the positive association between serious coronavirus cases and population density [where r(18) = 0.340)]. [(See appendix Figure SI 3(b)].
Total 33,310 deaths have been reported officially as of 3rd June, 2020. According to ministry of health, the Lombardia region alone reported 16,172 deaths due to coronavirus which have a population density of 421 person/Sq.Km. Nearly 4147 (12.45%), 3898 (11.70%) and 1921 deaths have been reported in the region of Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte, and Vento respectively. Following Table 3 clearly depicts the relationship between total deaths caused by COVID-19 and population density [where r(18) = 0.292)]. [(See appendix Figure SI 3(c)].
Total 158,951 patients recovered from coronavirus infection in Italy as of 3rd June, 2020 which is 69% of total confirmed coronavirus cases. Lombardia region has observed a spike in the number of recovered patients from coronavirus. the region has alone 89442 people infected out of which 53046 recovered. The Lombardia region has 60% recovery rate which is highest in Italy but is below the national average of 69 percent and also contribute 33 percent of the total recoveries nationwide. Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna, and Vento infected 30734, 27842 and 19164 people respectively out of which 22150, 20856, and 15856 people recovered completely. Table 3 indicated a positive correlation between population density and total recovered cases from coronavirus [where r(18) = 0.313)]. [(See appendix Figure SI 3(d)].
After Wuhan, China, the Italy was the next hotspot of infectious disease of coronavirus. The first corona positive case was detected in Italy on 31st of January,2020 when two Chinese tourist visited Rome [33] and a week later an Italian man returned from china reported positive [34]. Later a cluster of positive cases detected in the region of Lombardia [35, 36] and then in the first half of March the virus spread all over the country [37]. The COVID-19 infections disease caused major health burden and emergency situation across the Italy. Total COVID-19 cases in Italy were 231,238 as of 3rd June, 2020. It can be observed from Figure 5 below that Lombardia has the highest number of confirmed cases (89442) which has kept the government on its toes due to sharp surge in the number of coronavirus cases. Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna and Toscana followed Lombardia with 13.29% 12.04% and 4.38% cases respectively. The huge number of COVID-19 cases was a threat to the citizen of Italy and its economy. A correlation is found between number of COVID-19 cases and the population of various regions of Italy [where r(18) = 0.318)] (Table 3). To understand the correlation, a scatterplot is shown for better representation [(See appendix Figure SI 3(e)].
Below in Figure 6, a dashboard has been made in individual capacity only for this study. Dashboard is the collection of several views, letting you to compare the variety of the data at the same-time. It is best to display a set of information on dashboard rather than navigating for the information separately. In this dashboard one can see the number of active cases, serious cases, recovered cases, deaths and total cases, along with an interactive map in the middle of dashboard. The regional level information is also shown on left side in the dashboard. On the right hand side of the map, the national trend on coronavirus can also be observed.
Table 3 Association between population density and COVID-19 variables using Pearson correlation
Variables
|
Test Statistics (t)
|
Degree of freedom (df)
|
P value
|
Correlation Co-efficient
|
Active Cases
|
2.929
|
18
|
0.009
|
0.323
|
Serious Cases
|
3.043
|
18
|
0.007
|
0.340
|
Total Deaths
|
2.727
|
18
|
0.014
|
0.292
|
Recovered Cases
|
2.867
|
18
|
0.010
|
0.313
|
Confirmed Cases
|
2.898
|
18
|
0.010
|
0.318
|