This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research Article
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.
Keywords
Stochastic, coronavirus, spreading
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 17 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Learn more about our company.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research Article
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 17 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
Loading...