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Research Article
Stochastic analysis using public data for forecasting of epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
CEFET-MG
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0410-3640
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
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We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.
Keywords
Stochastic, coronavirus, spreading
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
Stochastic analysis using public data for forecasting of epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
CEFET-MG
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0410-3640
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 17 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.