System Dynamics Modeling of Health Workforce Planning to Address Future Challenges of Thailand’s Universal Health Coverage
Background: System dynamics modeling can inform policy decisions of healthcare reforms under Thailand’s Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand’s strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years.
Methods: A series of group model building sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand’s health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. Policymakers, healthcare administrators, and practitioners were facilitated to co-create a causal loop diagram representing a shared understanding of why the demands and supplies of the health workforce in Thailand can be mismatched and a stock and flow diagrams for testing the consequences of policy options.
Results: Our simulation modeling found hospital utilizations created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care, and hence a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of aging populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective.
Conclusions: The system dynamics modeling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Posted 21 Sep, 2020
On 28 Dec, 2020
Received 12 Dec, 2020
On 01 Dec, 2020
Invitations sent on 17 Nov, 2020
On 17 Nov, 2020
Received 17 Nov, 2020
On 16 Sep, 2020
On 16 Sep, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
System Dynamics Modeling of Health Workforce Planning to Address Future Challenges of Thailand’s Universal Health Coverage
Posted 21 Sep, 2020
On 28 Dec, 2020
Received 12 Dec, 2020
On 01 Dec, 2020
Invitations sent on 17 Nov, 2020
On 17 Nov, 2020
Received 17 Nov, 2020
On 16 Sep, 2020
On 16 Sep, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
On 15 Sep, 2020
Background: System dynamics modeling can inform policy decisions of healthcare reforms under Thailand’s Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand’s strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years.
Methods: A series of group model building sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand’s health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. Policymakers, healthcare administrators, and practitioners were facilitated to co-create a causal loop diagram representing a shared understanding of why the demands and supplies of the health workforce in Thailand can be mismatched and a stock and flow diagrams for testing the consequences of policy options.
Results: Our simulation modeling found hospital utilizations created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care, and hence a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of aging populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective.
Conclusions: The system dynamics modeling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5