3.1. Trend and relative risk (RR) of COVID-19
The COVID-19 epidemic was initial described in Wuhan, China and has feast to more than 200 countries till now. In Punjab, the first case was reported by 15th March 2020 at Lahore. The novel COVID-19 has spread relatively at faster rate from March to July, and the number of reported infections was 53,265 on July 1 (the highest figure so far). The number of confirmed cases increased during the month of June and July, mostly due to people having travel histories of the affected places. On 15th July, total confirmed cases were reported to be 38786 which decreased as compare to June. At the end of July, observed COVID-19 cases decreased in different areas of the study region. The decrease in cases continued till Sep 15, but afterwards, the disease spread at increasing rate and reached to the cases 24,552 on Dec 1. On 15th Janwary, total confirmed cases were reported to be 17084 which decreased as compare to December and November. At the end of February, observed COVID-19 cases decreased in different areas of the study region. But during March, 2021 COVID-19 cases were also again increased as compared to last month which is called 3rd wave of COVID-19 in Punjab. On 15th March, COVID-19 cases were reported 38647, due to high no. of cases, different district has lockdown. Although, there seems to be some decline in the no. of cases after Dec 1, there are still chances the disease may upsurge (Fig. 2). In several district hospitals, nearly 90% of ventilators and oxygen beds are already occupied, while some hospitals are turning away new patients as 100% of beds allocated for coronavirus patients are already taken, according to ministry officials. Pakistan is set to receive millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses from various countries in the coming weeks to speed up its slow immunization campaign. So far, out of its population of 210 million, nearly 1.4 million people, including health professionals and people above 50 years old, have been inoculated. The lockdown is up again and have left millions of daily wage laborers, farmers etc. unemployed. The situation is getting worse with every passing hour will no space in hospitals and limited oxygen.
Table 1 was presented the features of the statistically important emerging STSS of COVID-19 in each district of Punjab from March 2020 to November 2020. Clusters were based on the mean values of all districts of Punjab with a RR > 1 (i.e. more detected than expected cases). Punjab has an RR of 0.049 with 63 detected cases during 1 March to 15 March in Punjab(cluster 1). Cluster 3 contains RR of 1.91 and 2,413 observed cases. Cluster 5 contains RR of 10.03 and 12,661 observed cases in the study area during May 1st – May 15th. Cluster 8 contains maximum RR values of 42.19 and maximum observed cases 53,265 during June 15th – July 1st. During this cluster, almost all the districts in Punjab contained RR > 1. After this cluster, it is observed that RR values decreased because observed values also decreased in the study area. The cluster 10 contains RR of 9.96 and 12,674 observed cases during July 15th – Aug 1st. In cluster 12 RR of 3.52 and 4,440 cases were observed during Aug 15th – Sep 1st. Cluster 14 contains values like (observed cases = 4,412) and (RR = 3.49) and show the decreasing tread in COVID-19 cases in study area. But in cluster 17, trend of COVID-19 showed increased as pervious trend in study area like observed cases = 13,269 and RR = 10.51 during Nov 1st – Nov 15th and almost 10 districts have RR > 1 in study area. By comparison of Table 1 and Fig. 2, it is clear that it was not always necessary that if the no. of active cases in Punjab increased, there should be higher relative risk for more no. of districts and vice versa. This can be found at clusters 4 and cluster 10. In cluster 4 (April 15 to May 1), although the no. of active cases was on increase in the whole Punjab but the no. of districts having RR > 1 decreased as compared to cluster 3 (decreased from 5 to 3). Similarly, in cluster 10 (July 15 to Aug 1), the no. of active cases was decreasing for the study region but the districts having RR > 1 increased from 23 (cluster 9) to 27. So, STSS provides a valuable information regarding potential of the disease spread in a given region and may be used as a useful information for timely planning of resources allocation, trade restrictions and lock down.
Table 1
space-time scan statistic (SPSS) of COVID-19 from March to November 2020 in Punjab (RR = relative risk)
Cluster | Duration | Observed cases | Expected cases | RR | Districts with RR > 1 |
1 | Mar 1th – Mar 15th | 63 | 1.24 | 0.049 | 0 |
2 | Mar 15th – April 1st | 810 | 16.04 | 0.64 | 1 |
3 | April 1th – April 15th | 2413 | 47.78 | 1.91 | 5 |
4 | April 15th – May 1st | 6916 | 136.95 | 5.48 | 3 |
5 | May 1th – May 15th | 12661 | 250.72 | 10.03 | 9 |
6 | May 15th – June 1st | 22417 | 443.90 | 17.75 | 21 |
7 | June 1th – June 15th | 44846 | 888.03 | 35.52 | 30 |
8 | June 15th – July 1st | 53265 | 1054.75 | 42.19 | 35 |
9 | July 1th – July 15th | 38786 | 768.05 | 30.72 | 23 |
10 | July 15th – Aug 1st | 12574 | 249 | 9.96 | 27 |
11 | Aug 1th – Aug 15th | 8130 | 161 | 6.44 | 19 |
12 | Aug 15th – Sep 1st | 4440 | 87.93 | 3.52 | 14 |
13 | Sep 1th – Sep 15th | 2887 | 57.17 | 2.29 | 15 |
14 | Sep 15th – Oct 1st | 4412 | 87.38 | 3.49 | 12 |
15 | Oct 1th – Oct 15th | 4604 | 91.17 | 3.64 | 8 |
16 | Oct 15th – Nov 1st | 6060 | 120.01 | 4.8 | 7 |
17 | Nov 1th – Nov 15th | 13269 | 262.75 | 10.51 | 10 |
By STSS, COVID-19 cases pattern in 6 different classes was 0 to 5, 5 to 10, 10 to 15, 15 to 20, 20 to 30 and > 30 from March, 2020 to November, 2020 (Fig. 3). These classes show the risk of exposing the spatial spread of COVID-19 in relation to various districts of Punjab, based on district population as well as environmental factors which may control the distribution of the cases. The maximum patients returning to the homeland, including friends, families, and relatives (who have been in close contact with incubation carriers), was reported on daily basis as an observational analysis. We highlight all districts, which are known as the initial main hotspots of the epidemics in the study area. District Lahore is known to have the first Punjab case of COVID-19, which was presented by current travellers in China; leading to deadly epidemics in nursing homes as well as the surrounding area. The Figure shows that district Lahore and Multan have greatest values of RR like > 30 of COVID-19 in study area. Various districts like Mainwali, Atock, Chakwal, Khushab, Chinoit, Jhang, TT singh, Khanewal, Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan and Bahawalnagar indicated very less RR values of COVID-19. Areas with an RR of 0 are more transparent to focus than on the areas with an raised risk that “contribute” to the emerging clusters. Figure 3 shows that various populated districts were within an emerging cluster across the study area.
3.2 Effects of COVID-19 on agriculture
According to the survey, most respondents (43%) perceived that COVID-19 affected the agriculture in study area. Only 11% expected little to some effect (Fig. 4). Approximately half anticipated that living effects would be “moderate” or “severe”. The projected severity of livelihood effects was dependable across female and male respondents. Farmers involved in petty trade and everyday casual labour had the greatest negative view, with one-fourth expecting severe effects on agriculture. Most residents (57%) observed that their health has particularly changed due to COVID-19 lockdown (Fig. 5). Similarly, almost 70 % farmers had the opinion that their economic conditions are changed during these days, but the only 22% residents said that economic conditions have not changed in Pakistan (Suleri 2020). By Jamal (2020), mostly (68%) farmers observed that agricultural yield was affected to a great extent due to lockdown during April and May. Furthermore, almost 27% of the respondents reported that agriculture yield did not change during lockdown. About 62 % of the respondents responded that land holding was affected by COVID-19 (Fig. 6).
Wheat is the major crop grown in study area during the rabi season, and it is produced by almost 88 % of respondents during April and May. Mostly farmers indicated that COVID-19 affected during sowing to cotton and wheat due to the highest no of cases and RR values during month of July. Almost 8 percent respondents grew maize, which is used commonly for poultry feed; almost 4 percent respondents raised vegetables and other crops. The COVID-19 had mostly affected the wheat and maize harvest. Mostly farmers (86 %) stated that they could complete harvesting during the last week of April and therefore had faced extremely effects due to COVID-19 as shown in Fig. 7. Almost 9 % respondents reported that they had faced moderated effects on wheat and 5 % faced some effects during COVID-19. The COVID-19 had also effects on vegetable as well as other crops. Similarly, 60 % respondents reported that they faced extreme effects on vegetables and other crops due to COVID-19. Almost 45% of fruit and vegetable cultivators got very low prices, and 55% could not visit the markets due to COVID-19. Mostly farmers indicated that COVID-19 was the key reason of these problems. Most of the wheat and other crops harvest were spared due to COVID-19 related problems. However, milk producers were affected due of COVID-19, as dealers were unable to buy milk from the dairy forms. Mostly markets and restaurants were closed; the milk demand distorted resulting in less milk prices. The 35 % of farmers stated that they were facing disruptions in receiving and purchasing fertilizer and seed from market during COVID-19. Respondents showed facing extreme effects in the supply of the different farm inputs during COVID-19: for example, the delivery and purchase of fertilizer by 81 %, seed by 90 %; and pesticides by 86% (Fig. 8).
According to Jamal (2020), almost 70 percent of Pakistan’s farmers depend on farm labourers, who come from the less income regions before the harvesting period. But during this season, they could not make it due to COVID-19 lockdown. A farmer from Punjab province is running from pillar to post to arrange labour for the wheat harvesting, which in his area is set to start next week. This farmer is one of hundreds of thousands of farmers, dreadfully searching for labour for wheat harvest, mostly in Punjab and southern Sindh (the two bread-baskets for Punjab). The cultivation area for wheat has already decreased due to the changing climate and defective government policies in current years. The interruption in harvesting could decrease enormous amounts of winter crops, mainly wheat, in study area. The COVID-19 has also disturbed harvesting during this season. “Several labourers have personally told that they are scared of getting infected”.
Farmers could not avail transportation for transporting fresh food to urban and local markets. Furthermore, day meal packages in schools were disturbed because food assistance could not be supplied to the schools (Sahoo and Rath 2020). Effects of COVID-19 on our agriculture as well as food system need to be informed and accelerated by practices and ideas all over the world (Goddard 2020). By work in collaboration to bring partnerships and ideas together, the world-wide community (as well as one of the greatest susceptible people in Punjab) has a much stronger chance of coping the effects of COVID-19 on food security as well as defending the food production and agriculture. The lockdown disturbed food supply chains of extreme effected agricultural products for example vegetables, milk, and fruits, but it had moderately effect on the wheat and other crops harvest as well as marketing in study area. By Gray (2020), due to increase in food diffidence during lockdown, different organizations and countries are increasing special labours to keep agriculture securely running as a vital business, markets being provided in nutritious and adorable food, and customers still able to purchase and access food despite income losses and movement restrictions. Farmers must have access to markets without any discontinuation. This can be achieved if maximum government procurement and private markets work side by side. Small dairy and poultry farmers should be provided more targeted help, because the input supply and market-access problems of these businesses during pandemic are of urgent nature. Farmers and other agriculture-related workers should be involved in the government’s social safety programs and support package during the COVID-19 crisis. The government should encourage trade by evading import constraints and export bans. Government can also play an important role by confirming control on price as well as food security during the COVID-19 crisis.
3.3 Effects of COVID-19 on food supply chain
COVID-19 has a serious threat for those who put the food on our plates; it has disturbed the complete food supply chain comprising crop producers, transporters, processors, sellers, marketers and customers. According to the survey conducted, mostly farmers (72%) observed an increase in food prices. However, 28 % respondents perceived that food prices have not been changed during lockdown. Most people (57%) reported that they could not access to markets and stores during lockdown. However, 43% of respondents experienced being able to have regular access to markets and grocery stores during COVID-19 (shown in Fig. 9). The main issues of limiting market access were a combination of closing of markets, movement constraints, as well as concerns about leaving the household. Their main restrictions to markets access were transport limits as well as adult members in the house being self-quarantined.
The accessibility of food and other necessities of life were less than normal; on the other hand, very few farmers showed that vital food items were unavailable. Most respondents (47%) perceived fresh food available during lockdown (Table 2). Fresh food seemed slightly less accessible than staple food. Hygiene and medicines were mostly available in stores and market, with 3–7% of farmers showed that these items were unavailable. Mostly farmers showed that medicines were mostly available in market, but only 3% were of the view that these were not available during lockdown. According to WFP (2020a), almost 23 percent people in drought-prone zones of world are under stress, while 51 percent people in these regions are in worse conditions or crisis. Stressed houses are “the households which have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in stress-coping strategies”.
Table 2
Availability of items in stores in percentage during Lockdown in Punjab
| Fresh food | Medicines | Hygiene | Staple food |
Available | 47 | 72 | 66 | 80 |
partially available | 42 | 25 | 23 | 15 |
Not available | 9 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
Don’t know | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
In Punjab, vegetable and fruit markets were crushed by COVID-19, starting in April 2020. Due to closing of bars, schools and restaurants, crop growers and suppliers were forced to shift deliveries completely from the food services to the retail channel. COVID-19 could potentially affect the smooth function of transport at about every step along the food supply chain. COVID-19 disease could limit the obtainability of skilled employees in the transport sector in food supply chain. This supply chain contains inputs to production area to storage, to manufacturers and processors, as well as to retailers and distributors. Limitations in agricultural labours movements might increase food prices and limit their availability. The countries which consume much imported food will have to bear increased food prices due to the depreciation in their local currency value as compared to the US dollar (Imran 2020).
Before COVID-19 disease, 820 M people were under-nourished, with two billion people facing food diffidence all over the globe (Saha et al. 2020). By Sumner et al. (2020), numerous million peoples are living dangerously nearby the poverty line: they deficiency the physical as well as economic means to obtain food due to the supply disruptions, self-isolation, lost income and movement. For instance, 30% Pakistanis are unable to afford more than one meal a day, the country's Prime Minister has given the warning that an interruption of economic activity due to lock down will be extremely detrimental. The lockdowns by COVID-19 and its disruptions have revealed the fragility of people’s access to vital services and goods (Chen et al. 2020). In food and health systems, serious inequalities and weaknesses have come to light. Food systems, the people sustaining them and public goods they distribute, have been under-protected and under-valued. The universal weaknesses shown by COVID-19 will be further affected due to change in climate in next few years. According to Galanakis (2020), COVID-19 has adversely impacted the food systems and supplies that must be observed. It is vital to take all essential actions to remove main barriers to procurement of food during lockdowns, while ensuring consumers and workers security. Suitable action must be taken to confirm that farm and food workers as well as travelling labourers and those in the informal area have access to safe working environments.
The COVID-19 disaster has excelled a attention on the susceptibilities of food security on 3 faces: The first one is that, industrial agriculture is creating loss of habitat and could develop conditions conducive for viruses to emerge and spread. At second place, a range of distractions are challenging the resilience of food supply chains. Thirdly, most people are living perpetually on the dangerous poverty, malnutrition and cusp of hunger and are extremely susceptible to the effects of a world-wide decline. Our results will help for the increasing the capacity of local government and farmers to implement sound strategies for improvement of food and agriculture during COVID-19. It is also an essential for the current application of policies for policy-makers on easy and adequate availability of farming evidence for the local farmers to the improvement of agriculture and food security.