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Research Article
Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Data to Study the Effect of Lockdown and Unlock in India
Chandreyee Chowdhury
Jadavpur University
Corresponding Author
Ayan Kumar Panja
Institute of Engineering & Management
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused worldwide socioeconomic unrest, forcing governments to introduce extreme measures to reduce its spread. Being able to accurately forecast the effect of unlocking in India, would allow governments to alter their policies accordingly and plan ahead. The study investigated prediction forecasts using the ARIMA model on the COVID-19 data on the lockdown period and the unlock period. In this work, we have considered not only the no of positive COVID cases but also considered the number of tests carried out. The time-series data sample was collected till June 2020 and the prediction and analysis are done for August 2020. The model developed and the forecasted results align very closely with the actual no of cases and we have drawn some important inferences through experimentation.
Keywords
COVID-19, Coronavirus, Pandemic, Time-series, ARIMA, Trend, Forecast, India
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Data to Study the Effect of Lockdown and Unlock in India
Chandreyee Chowdhury
Jadavpur University
Corresponding Author
Ayan Kumar Panja
Institute of Engineering & Management
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 29 Sep, 2020
Community comments: 1
Metrics
Comments: 1
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Declarations:
Declarations
- The author has confirmed that a statement listing potential conflicts of interest or lack thereof is included in the text.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused worldwide socioeconomic unrest, forcing governments to introduce extreme measures to reduce its spread. Being able to accurately forecast the effect of unlocking in India, would allow governments to alter their policies accordingly and plan ahead. The study investigated prediction forecasts using the ARIMA model on the COVID-19 data on the lockdown period and the unlock period. In this work, we have considered not only the no of positive COVID cases but also considered the number of tests carried out. The time-series data sample was collected till June 2020 and the prediction and analysis are done for August 2020. The model developed and the forecasted results align very closely with the actual no of cases and we have drawn some important inferences through experimentation.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.
certification on data analytics
commented on 31 December, 2020
I find your opinion quite interesting, but the other day I stumbled upon completely different advice from another blogger, I need to think that one through, thanks for posting. <a href="https://360digitmg.com/course/data-analytics-using-python-r">certification on data analytics</a>