Table 1: Final calibrated parameters and their t-stat, p-value and the best-fitted values with range.
Parameter Name
|
t- Stat
|
P- Value
|
Calibrated Parameter
|
Physical Description
|
Fitted Value
|
Min value
|
Max value
|
Flow Parameters
|
V__GW_DELAY.gw
|
-17.6
|
0
|
7.7
|
0
|
18
|
Groundwater delay(days).
|
V__ALPHA_BF.gw
|
13.63
|
0
|
0.09
|
0.08
|
0.23
|
Baseflow alpha factor(days).
|
V__CH_K2.rte
|
-9.52
|
0
|
116.46
|
92
|
190
|
Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium.
|
R__CN2.mgt
|
6.23
|
0
|
0.05
|
0.01
|
0.07
|
SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II.
|
V__GWQMN.gw
|
-1.63
|
0.1
|
237.37
|
235
|
299
|
Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (mm).
|
V__TLAPS.sub
|
1.12
|
0.26
|
2.98
|
0.19
|
3.13
|
Temperature lapse rate
|
V__GW_REVAP.gw
|
0.77
|
0.44
|
0.19
|
0.18
|
0.2
|
Groundwater "revap" coefficient.
|
V__ESCO.hru
|
0.66
|
0.51
|
0.54
|
0.52
|
0.58
|
Soil evaporation compensation factor.
|
R__SOL_K(..).sol
|
-0.55
|
0.58
|
-0.15
|
-0.19
|
-0.13
|
Saturated hydraulic conductivity.
|
R__SOL_AWC(..).sol
|
-0.55
|
0.58
|
-0.22
|
-0.23
|
-0.12
|
Available water capacity of the soil layer.
|
V__PLAPS.sub
|
0.31
|
0.72
|
184.99
|
178
|
202
|
Precipitation lapse rate.
|
Snow (Basin) Parameters
|
V__SMFMX.bsn
|
1.57
|
0.12
|
9.76
|
8.16
|
10.22
|
Maximum melt rate for snow during the year (occurs on summer solstice).
|
V__SNOCOVMX.bsn
|
0.9
|
0.37
|
30.51
|
18
|
52
|
Minimum snow water content that corresponds to 100% snow cover.
|
V__TIMP.bsn
|
0.71
|
0.48
|
0.48
|
0.34
|
0.52
|
Snowpack temperature lag factor
|
V__SMTMP.bsn
|
0.64
|
0.52
|
-3.59
|
-4.67
|
-3.53
|
Snowmelt base temperature
|
V__SURLAG.bsn
|
0.62
|
0.54
|
11.28
|
11
|
14
|
Surface runoff lag time
|
V__SFTMP.bsn
|
-0.36
|
0.68
|
-3.58
|
-3.58
|
-0.87
|
Snowfall temperature.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2: Model Performance Statistics.
SI. N.
|
Statistics
|
Notation
|
Calibration
|
Validation
|
1
|
Coefficient of determinant
|
R2
|
0.85
|
0.87
|
2
|
Nash-Sutcliff efficiency
|
R2
|
0.85
|
0.85
|
3
|
Percent bias
|
PBIAS
|
-2.5
|
-5.4
|
4
|
p-factor
|
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
5
|
r-factor
|
|
0.28
|
0.38
|
Table 3: Comparison of observed rainfall records with raw and bias-corrected.
Data
|
Maximum Temperature
|
Minimum Temperature
|
Precipitation
|
RMSE
|
R2
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev
|
RMSE
|
R2
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev
|
RMSE
|
R2
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev
|
Observed
|
|
|
20.93
|
3.97
|
|
|
11.65
|
4.96
|
|
|
5.47
|
5.27
|
Corrected
|
1.38
|
0.88
|
20.93
|
3.94
|
1.10
|
0.95
|
11.64
|
4.96
|
2.98
|
0.71
|
5.43
|
5.33
|
Raw
|
6.68
|
0.59
|
14.75
|
3.33
|
7.67
|
0.92
|
4.18
|
5.84
|
10.02
|
0.57
|
11.74
|
10.99
|
Table 4: Changes in the monthly avg precipitation of all scenarios relative to baseline data
Month
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
2030s
|
2060s
|
2090s
|
2030s
|
2060s
|
2090s
|
Jan
|
-3.23
|
-29.28
|
76.23
|
14.82
|
13.94
|
63.11
|
Feb
|
51.78
|
54.89
|
49.33
|
6.63
|
51.18
|
45.00
|
Mar
|
161.54
|
138.36
|
132.27
|
165.22
|
100.49
|
179.48
|
Apr
|
0.72
|
18.06
|
5.09
|
-1.87
|
18.34
|
5.87
|
May
|
-5.70
|
-13.43
|
-4.70
|
-16.46
|
6.07
|
-18.19
|
Jun
|
-8.78
|
-22.10
|
-13.74
|
-24.05
|
-0.72
|
-23.98
|
Jul
|
8.13
|
14.77
|
-2.40
|
33.27
|
3.27
|
9.52
|
Aug
|
18.53
|
22.35
|
16.69
|
37.36
|
18.14
|
25.21
|
Sep
|
45.46
|
0.37
|
-1.69
|
20.04
|
12.07
|
6.82
|
Oct
|
16.35
|
58.59
|
11.44
|
25.36
|
1.18
|
48.92
|
Nov
|
76.37
|
396.47
|
162.85
|
179.78
|
-24.70
|
207.80
|
Dec
|
-35.88
|
-59.63
|
-10.27
|
-6.16
|
7.09
|
-68.36
|
Table 5: Relative changes in the average temperature over the basin.
Station
|
Taplejung
|
t18'
|
Scenarios
|
Tmax
|
Relative Change
|
Tmin
|
Relative Change
|
Tmax
|
Relative Change
|
Tmin
|
Relative Change
|
(1993-2007)
|
20.95
|
|
11.67
|
|
8.33
|
|
-2.51
|
|
RCP 4.5:30s
|
21.43
|
0.49
|
12.12
|
0.45
|
8.56
|
0.22
|
-1.92
|
0.59
|
RCP 4.5:60s
|
21.92
|
0.97
|
12.67
|
1.00
|
9.09
|
0.76
|
-1.08
|
1.43
|
RCP 4.5:90s
|
22.42
|
1.48
|
13.12
|
1.45
|
10.05
|
1.72
|
-0.26
|
2.25
|
RCP 8.5:30s
|
21.61
|
0.67
|
12.17
|
0.50
|
8.93
|
0.60
|
-1.60
|
0.91
|
RCP 8.5:60s
|
22.84
|
1.89
|
13.74
|
2.07
|
11.11
|
2.78
|
0.52
|
3.03
|
RCP 8.5:90s
|
24.74
|
3.80
|
15.49
|
3.82
|
13.34
|
5.01
|
2.77
|
5.28
|
Table 6: Future water balance components under all future scenarios.
Month
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
Precipitation
|
Water Yield
|
E.T.
|
Precipitation
|
Water Yield
|
E.T.
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
30s
|
60s
|
90s
|
Jan
|
31.8
|
27.3
|
53.7
|
19.0
|
17.1
|
20.7
|
18.9
|
17.5
|
20.9
|
37.8
|
40.0
|
51.2
|
19.5
|
16.0
|
19.2
|
19.7
|
20.3
|
21.8
|
Feb
|
65.0
|
64.8
|
63.1
|
27.8
|
29.0
|
31.0
|
23.9
|
24.9
|
28.2
|
49.0
|
63.4
|
61.1
|
22.4
|
27.1
|
26.4
|
22.6
|
26.7
|
30.1
|
Mar
|
142.3
|
130.4
|
126.1
|
57.9
|
61.3
|
54.8
|
42.8
|
47.3
|
42.7
|
142.2
|
113.0
|
150.8
|
54.8
|
43.8
|
52.0
|
42.0
|
49.2
|
51.8
|
Apr
|
167.0
|
191.3
|
174.0
|
75.5
|
74.2
|
69.5
|
60.8
|
63.0
|
61.9
|
164.3
|
191.7
|
174.0
|
72.2
|
68.1
|
68.2
|
58.4
|
63.4
|
78.8
|
May
|
235.4
|
217.1
|
237.2
|
112.7
|
102.4
|
109.1
|
74.6
|
78.6
|
80.4
|
210.0
|
259.2
|
205.5
|
101.9
|
112.4
|
79.9
|
80.8
|
85.2
|
90.8
|
Jun
|
300.9
|
259.8
|
284.8
|
176.5
|
144.8
|
162.4
|
76.4
|
78.8
|
78.9
|
255.8
|
321.9
|
253.6
|
136.6
|
203.0
|
133.2
|
76.6
|
81.5
|
88.4
|
Jul
|
473.9
|
498.9
|
428.8
|
306.4
|
306.5
|
256.1
|
81.7
|
82.1
|
85.1
|
576.3
|
452.3
|
477.0
|
368.9
|
289.6
|
285.5
|
79.5
|
83.4
|
91.8
|
Aug
|
500.2
|
514.2
|
491.4
|
375.3
|
403.8
|
365.3
|
77.6
|
79.8
|
81.7
|
574.7
|
497.1
|
523.6
|
444.1
|
355.9
|
371.3
|
79.2
|
82.5
|
87.8
|
Sep
|
375.5
|
268.1
|
263.3
|
324.2
|
232.9
|
229.1
|
64.1
|
66.5
|
67.7
|
315.8
|
295.7
|
282.7
|
300.3
|
264.1
|
244.6
|
65.4
|
67.3
|
70.8
|
Oct
|
113.6
|
147.7
|
108.5
|
135.8
|
128.8
|
105.8
|
52.6
|
53.5
|
58.2
|
121.9
|
102.5
|
142.0
|
124.0
|
106.8
|
117.8
|
51.2
|
55.7
|
60.5
|
Nov
|
31.7
|
84.0
|
45.9
|
52.4
|
96.9
|
53.9
|
34.9
|
39.3
|
38.7
|
47.0
|
14.2
|
52.3
|
67.6
|
40.0
|
62.4
|
36.1
|
35.0
|
49.3
|
Dec
|
10.3
|
6.5
|
13.2
|
21.8
|
23.2
|
21.0
|
20.8
|
21.8
|
23.7
|
13.5
|
16.1
|
5.5
|
25.2
|
21.5
|
22.8
|
21.1
|
19.7
|
24.3
|
Total
|
2448
|
2410
|
2290
|
1685
|
1621
|
1478
|
629
|
653
|
668
|
2508
|
2367
|
2379
|
1738
|
1548
|
1483
|
633
|
670
|
746
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 7: Percentage change in average monthly streamflow of future scenarios.
Months
|
2030s
|
2060s
|
2090s
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
Jan
|
6.76
|
9.77
|
15.18
|
-0.40
|
3.34
|
8.96
|
Feb
|
15.08
|
12.78
|
18.32
|
4.20
|
17.81
|
17.61
|
Mar
|
72.55
|
73.83
|
92.07
|
29.35
|
86.94
|
45.31
|
Apr
|
123.32
|
103.53
|
130.47
|
81.10
|
127.39
|
103.79
|
May
|
101.49
|
78.15
|
89.72
|
87.23
|
83.51
|
46.48
|
Jun
|
27.15
|
-4.09
|
1.88
|
44.65
|
13.73
|
-8.07
|
Jul
|
-9.60
|
8.15
|
-10.78
|
-13.63
|
-24.53
|
-16.97
|
Aug
|
-0.66
|
17.13
|
6.88
|
-6.04
|
-4.03
|
-2.23
|
Sep
|
18.98
|
12.91
|
-12.19
|
-1.50
|
-13.68
|
-8.47
|
Oct
|
3.89
|
-7.36
|
-7.26
|
-16.04
|
-17.24
|
-13.44
|
Nov
|
23.04
|
43.70
|
87.68
|
4.79
|
19.59
|
36.30
|
Dec
|
5.83
|
11.99
|
15.73
|
2.52
|
4.92
|
11.35
|
Table 8: Dependable daily flows at major percentiles.
Dependable flow
|
Baseline
|
30RCP4.5
|
30RCP8.5
|
60RCP4.5
|
60RCP8.5
|
90RCP4.5
|
90RCP8.5
|
0
|
1318.00
|
2138.00
|
1892.00
|
2762.00
|
1669.00
|
1669.00
|
1717.00
|
5
|
756.20
|
806.20
|
887.80
|
776.00
|
745.40
|
683.60
|
721.40
|
25
|
357.00
|
369.70
|
339.10
|
329.20
|
337.50
|
307.90
|
293.00
|
40
|
155.50
|
207.20
|
197.30
|
205.30
|
194.60
|
197.00
|
177.70
|
50
|
98.51
|
137.70
|
129.80
|
150.80
|
128.50
|
133.90
|
123.20
|
75
|
50.71
|
71.15
|
69.38
|
71.12
|
60.77
|
68.51
|
67.86
|
90
|
34.53
|
47.62
|
43.52
|
49.42
|
38.74
|
41.53
|
45.69
|
95
|
29.45
|
41.22
|
34.95
|
42.32
|
32.42
|
31.17
|
36.21
|
99
|
21.02
|
26.42
|
29.40
|
30.47
|
24.02
|
25.96
|
28.07
|
100
|
19.87
|
24.49
|
29.14
|
29.02
|
22.59
|
24.67
|
27.09
|