2.1 Provenance trials
Materials used in this study were from the Interior spruce climate change/genecology provenance trial (EP 670.71.12) of the British Columbia (BC) Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations, and Rural Development (FLNRORD). The trial consists of 128 natural stand and genetically selected populations of Interior spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, P. engelmannii Parry ex Engelm., and their hybrids) from western North America, that were planted as 1-year old seedlings at 18 test sites (17 extant) in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Yukon Territory (Fig. 1, Table 1) in the spring of 2005. Each of the 17 test sites employed an incomplete block design containing 16 incomplete blocks of 9 four-tree row plots at 1 X 2m spacing in each of 8 replicates. Details regarding the populations, test sites, and experimental design can be found in O’Neill et al. (2014). Height and survival were assessed after 3, 6, and 10 years of growth in the field (i.e., in fall 2007, 2010, and 2014). We use the term “population” to refer to a group of inter-mating individuals and “provenance” to indicate the geographic origin of a population. We selected three populations (N Rossland, Lower Canjilon, and McGregor, Fig. 1, Table 2) to sample the temperature range of the tested populations. Tree height increment between ages 6 and 10 (i.e., fall 2010 to fall 2014) of each tree was used to calculate the mean increment of the 3 populations at each test site.
Locations of 15 test sites (with onsite weather stations, red and green dots) and 3 selected provenances (blue dots). The test sites used in this study are shown in green. The other 4 sites in red were excluded due to missing values and lack of adjacent sites for imputation
Table 1
Test site (with onsite weather station) geographical information (latitude, longitude, and elevation) and 6-year and 10-year tree height (average of the 3 selected populations) at each test site
Site name
|
Latitude
(°)
|
Longitude
(°)
|
Elevation
(m)
|
Average 6-year tree height (cm)
|
Average 10-year tree height (cm)
|
Cranbrook
|
49.410
|
-115.958
|
1370
|
143
|
200
|
Duncan Lake
|
50.382
|
-116.922
|
640
|
199
|
269
|
Harrison*
|
49.342
|
-121.996
|
166
|
250
|
363
|
High Level
|
59.142
|
-117.568
|
334
|
121
|
153
|
Jordan River*
|
48.426
|
-124.023
|
120
|
217
|
295
|
Mayo*
|
63.543
|
-137.342
|
456
|
108
|
118
|
Nakusp
|
49.887
|
-117.890
|
1107
|
170
|
219
|
Parsnip
|
54.537
|
-122.028
|
805
|
168
|
266
|
Pine Pass
|
55.147
|
-122.776
|
811
|
169
|
275
|
Revelstoke
|
50.766
|
-117.958
|
910
|
195
|
266
|
Skimikin
|
50.784
|
-119.422
|
506
|
213
|
326
|
Terrace
|
54.485
|
-128.569
|
167
|
189
|
286
|
Tete Jaune
|
52.964
|
-119.417
|
820
|
187
|
312
|
Wells
|
53.155
|
-121.556
|
1230
|
131
|
183
|
Whitecourt*
|
54.056
|
-115.791
|
816
|
159
|
269
|
*Site excluded due to missing data periods and lack of adjacent test sites for the imputation of the missing periods. |
Table 2
Geographical information (latitude, longitude, and elevation), mean annual temperature (MAT), and mean annual precipitation (MAP) from ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016) for the three selected provenances
Provenance name
|
Latitude (°)
|
Longitude (°)
|
Elevation (m)
|
MAT (°C)
|
MAP (mm)
|
N Rossland
|
49.3
|
-118.00
|
1650
|
3.2
|
1036
|
Lower Canjilon
|
36.57
|
-106.33
|
2941
|
3.6
|
647
|
McGregor
|
54.67
|
-120.58
|
1219
|
1.0
|
962
|
2.2 Climate data from onsite weather stations
Onsite micro weather stations consisting of a precipitation gauge (S-RGB-M002), temperature/relative humidity sensor (S-THB-M002), and a HOBO Micro Station data logger (H21-002) from Onset Computer Corporation were established at 15 of the 18 provenance test sites in fall 2010 (one site was abandoned due to fire, one site was too remote to allow for annual data downloading, and one site did not establish). Temperature and precipitation were recorded hourly. Recording started in fall 2010 and data was available through 2018 for most test sites. We extracted weather records for January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014 to match the age-6 to age-10 growth increment period (Table 1).
However, data gaps consisting of 9.6% of the total data recording period, which were generally 3 to 11 months in duration, were detected. The gaps arose due to vandalism, animal damage, dead batteries, or equipment malfunction, and did not appear to change in frequency over time. There were no data gaps in the first year of data records, and no gaps in any years of four test sites: Duncan Lake, Nakusp, Terrace, and Tete Jaune.
Three monthly climate variables were calculated from the observed hourly data: monthly minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature, and monthly precipitation. For the comparisons and response function analysis, data gaps at the onsite stations were filled by imputation from other onsite stations that were geographically adjacent (< 150km) and at a similar altitude (difference < 300m). Missing temperature and precipitation values were imputed for months with missing data using values of the same month in the previous year and the following year. Data gaps could not be imputed at the Mayo, Jordan River, and Harrison test sites because they lacked geographically adjacent test sites. Thus, those 3 test sites were removed from the analysis. Also, the onsite weather station at test site Whitecourt did not record any rainfall from 2013 to 2016 and was therefore removed. Thus, 11 of the 15 sites were used for further analyses (see green marks in Fig. 1), and the onsite missing data rate decreased to 7.6% after the deletion of the 4 test sites. Because temperature in degree Celsius is an interval variable with no true zero, and precipitation records contained numerous 0 values which were not amenable to multiplication, imputation was achieved using the temperature and precipitation differences between adjacent years using the following formula:
Where \({P}_{xij}\) is the value of the missing monthly climate variable to be imputed for month i of year j at site x; \({O}_{xi}\) is the observed value of month i at site x. x identifies the test site for which a value is to be imputed, and y represents the neighboring test site.
Additional climate variables calculated from the primary monthly climate variables are sometimes found to be more strongly related to population differentiation than the primary monthly climate variables. These included mean annual temperature (MAT), mean coldest month temperature (MCMT), mean warmest month temperature (MWMT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), annual heat-moisture index (AHM), average temperature in each season, and total precipitation in each season following Wang et al. (2016). Therefore, those additional climate variables were calculated for each month at each site using the onsite climate observations for use in the response function analysis.
2.3 Climate data from ClimateNA
Monthly and annual climate variables were predicted for 2011–2014 for the 11 test sites with ClimateNA v6.20 (Wang et al. 2016; ClimateNA 2020) using test site coordinates and elevation.
2.4 Climate data from Environment Canada standard weather stations
Since we noticed some random factors affecting the accuracy of onsite weather stations, especially for precipitation, we sought Environment Canada standard weather stations located < 20 km and within 100 m elevation of our onsite stations to assess the accuracy of the onsite and ClimateNA data as a reference. We assume climate to be very similar across these short distances. We found two standard stations that met these criteria. The Duncan Lake Dam standard weather station (50.239° N, 116.972° W, 549 m) is located 2 km from, and 22 m higher than, the Duncan Lake test site, while the Terrace A standard weather station (54.469° N, 128.578° W, 217m) is located 16 km from, and 91 meters below, the Terrace test site. Monthly climate data for the period 2011–2014 were downloaded for these two standard weather stations (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2021).
2.5 Statistical analysis
To examine the first hypothesis, we compared the monthly temperature and monthly precipitation of remote onsite weather stations and ClimateNA predictions. Comparisons were conducted for each test site individually, using linear regression analysis. Root mean square error (RMSE), the coefficient of determination (R2 value), and P values were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy. Also, the same comparisons were conducted between monthly temperature and monthly precipitation from Environment Canada standard weather stations and the two climate data sources for the two locations with reference standard weather stations (Duncan Lake and Terrace), which, coincidentally, were 2 of the 4 test sites with complete weather data. Thus, we chose those two test sites for graphical demonstrations in figures.
To assess the second hypothesis, we developed and compared the patterns of the response functions for each of 3 climatically disparate provenances using a univariate quadratic function to relate tree height increment between ages 6 and 10 with observed and predicted climate variables. Quadratic functions are widely used in genecology because of their simplicity and effectiveness (Rehfeldt et al. 1999). The proportions of variation explained by the regression models (R2 values) and prediction errors (RMSE) were used to determine the association between climate variables and growth. We also developed bivariate quadratic regressions to combine a temperature variable and a precipitation variable that performed well in the previous univariate regressions as the explanatory variables.