Baseline characteristics of breast cancer patients with BM before and after PSM
The workflow of our study is illustrated in the Figure 1. From 2010 to 2016, 447,929 breast cancer patients were identified in the SEER database, 3,956 of whom met our research criteria. A total of 1,454 patients underwent surgery and another 2,502 did not. As shown in Table 1, there were significant differences in most of the baseline characteristics between patients in the surgery and non-surgery groups, such as age, histological type, grade, T stage, N stage, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor size, breast subtype, insurance status, and marital status. A total of 2,094 patients were matched between the surgery and non-surgery groups after PSM, while all variables were balanced between these two groups (Table 1).
Survival benefit analysis of patients in the surgery and non-surgery groups after PSM
The Kaplan-Meier curves for OS in the surgery and non- surgery groups after PSM are shown in Figure 2A. Surgery at the primary site significantly improved OS in breast cancer patients with BM, with a median survival of 50 months in the surgery group versus 31 months in the non-surgery group (P<0.001). Furthermore, we further analyzed the impact of the type of surgery on the OS of breast cancer patients with BM. As shown in Figure 2B, for the OS of patients, BCS improved more significantly compared to mastectomy (median OS: 61 months vs. 45 months, P<0.05).
Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients in the surgery group before PSM.
A total of 1,454 patients in the surgery group were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (1,020) and validation cohort (434). To identify independent prognostic factors in the surgery group, univariate Cox analysis was performed on the training cohort. Age, race, histological type, grade, T stage, N stage, type of surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor size, breast subtype, and marital status were found to be important factors affecting the OS (Table 2). After controlling for confounding variables with multivariate Cox analysis, age, race, histological type, grade, N stage, type of surgery, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor size, and breast subtype were identified as independent prognostic factors (Table 2).
Based on the prognostic factors selected in the training cohort, a nomogram was constructed for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS of patients underwent surgery (Figure 3). Subsequently, the discrimination of the nomogram was verified by plotting the ROC curves. The AUC values for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS were 0.805, 0.775, and 0.750 in the training cohort and 0.803, 0.783, and 0.756 in the validation cohort (Figure 4). Furthermore, the calibration curve and DCA that in both the training cohort and the validation cohort indicated that the nomogram not only showed a high agreement between the predicted OS and the actual outcome (Figure 5A and 5B) but also showed a significant positive net benefit across a wide range of mortality risks, demonstrating that the nomogram has a strong clinical utility (Figure 5C and 5D).Besides, we further compared the differences of AUC values between the nomograms and all independent prognostic factors. The results showed that the AUC values of nomograms were higher than the AUC values of all independent factors at 1-, 2-, and 3-years in both the training and validation cohorts (Figure 6).
We calculated the total score of the training cohort of patients based on the nomogram. The best OS-based cutoffs for the total score were determined by X-tile software and were 373 and 435, respectively. Therefore, we specify that less than 373 is classified as a low mortality risk subgroup, greater than 435 as a high mortality risk subgroup, and 373 to 435 as a middle mortality risk subgroup. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that in both training and validation cohorts, patients in the low mortality risk subgroup have a better prognosis than those in the middle mortality risk subgroup, and patients in the middle mortality risk subgroup have a better prognosis than those in the high mortality risk subgroup (P<0.01,Figure 7). Patients who are classified as a low risk of death subgroup can derive the greatest survival benefit from the surgery.
Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients in the non-surgery group before PSM.
Randomization of the non-surgery group at a 7:3 ratio resulted in 1,753 patients being enrolled in the training cohort and 749 patients being enrolled in the validation cohort. All results from univariate and multivariate Cox analyses in the training cohort are shown in Table 3. The univariate Cox analysis showed that age, race, histological type, grade, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, breast subtype, and marital status were significantly associated with OS (p-value < 0.05). Subsequently, we performed multivariate Cox analysis on variables that were meaningful in univariate Cox analysis. Unexpectedly, the 10 variables previously shown in univariate Cox analyses to be significantly associated with OS were identified as independent prognostic factors.
A nomogram was constructed to predict the OS at 1-, 2-, and 3- years in the non-surgery group based on independent prognostic factors (Figure 8). The time-dependent ROCs showed that the nomogram not only performs excellently in predicting OS (Figure 9) but also has a higher prediction accuracy than a single independent prognostic factor (Figure 10). Observation of the calibration curves of the nomogram showed, unsurprisingly, that there was a high degree of agreement between the predicted and actual results in the training and validation cohorts (Figure 11 A and B). Moreover, the DCA also demonstrated the strong clinical applicability of the nomogram model for the non-surgery group (Figure 11 C and D).
We categorized the non-surgery group of patients into low mortality risk subgroups, middle mortality risk subgroups, and high mortality risk subgroups by X-tile software. Patients with scores below 247 were classified in the low mortality risk subgroup, those above 302 were classified in the high mortality risk subgroup, and those between 247 and 302 were classified in the middle mortality risk subgroup. Interestingly, as shown in Figure 12, we found that as with the subgroup analysis of patients in the surgery group, when patients were classified in the low mortality risk subgroup, it always meant a better prognosis.