According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 2256 patients were enrolled and screened to identify eligible patients. As a result, 155 cases of colorectal non-neoplastic polyps (88 inflammatory and 67 hyperplastic polyps patients), 539 cases of colorectal adenomatous polyps, and 512 early-stage CRC patients (110 stage I patients and 402 stage II cases) were enrolled as eligible cases in the discovery cohort. The validation cohort consisted of 201 patients with colorectal benign polyps (colorectal non-neoplastic and adenomatous polyps) and 202 patients with stage I-II CRC (Figure 1). The characteristics of the patients are summarized in Table 1. Significant sex and age distribution differences were observed between the colorectal benign polyps and early-stage CRC groups in the discovery cohort (all p<0.01). However, there was only a sex distribution difference in the validation cohort (p=0.011). All eligible patients underwent endoscopic resection or curative surgical operation, and 382 and 118 CRC patients received CT after surgery in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Compared to the non-neoplastic and adenoma polyp subgroups, circulating Fib and FPR were significantly higher in the CRC subgroup (all p<0.01), conversely, Alb, pAlb, and AFR were extremely low in early-stage CRC patients compared to colorectal benign polyps cases in the two cohorts (all p<0.01).
Table 1
The baseline and clinicopathological characteristics of eligible patients in the discovery and validation cohorts.
| | Discovery cohort | | Validation cohort |
Variables | | Colorectal benign polyps (694) | | Early-stage colorecta cancer (512) | P-value | | Colorectal benign polyps (201) | Early-stage colorectal cancer (202) | P-value |
| | N(%) | | N(%) | | | N(%) | N(%) | |
Gender | Male | 433(62.39%) | | 312(60.94%) | <0.001 | | 139(69.15%) | 115(56.93%) | 0.011 |
| Female | 261(37.61%) | | 200(39.06%) | | 62(30.85%) | 87(43.07%) |
Age | <60 | 410(59.08%) | | 238(46.48%) | <0.001 | | 108(53.73%) | 110(54.46%) | 0.884 |
| ≥60 | 284(40.92%) | | 274(53.52%) | | 93(46.27%) | 92(45.54%) |
Smoking | Yes | 152(21.90%) | | 100(19.53%) | 0.317 | | 31(15.42%) | 32(15.84%) | 0.908 |
| No | 542(78.10%) | | 412(80.47%) | | 170(84.58%) | 170(84.16%) |
Drinking | Yes | 114(16.43%) | | 77(15.04%) | 0.514 | | 30(14.93%) | 27(13.37%) | 0.653 |
| No | 580(83.57%) | | 435(84.96%) | | 171(85.07%) | 175(86.63%) |
Diabetes | Yes | 46(6.63%) | | 37(7.23%) | 0.685 | | 16(7.96%) | 14(6.93%) | 0.694 |
| No | 648(93.37%) | | 475(92.77%) | | 185(92.04%) | 188(93.07%) |
Hypertension | Yes | 136(19.60%) | | 101(19.73%) | 0.955 | | 36(17.91%) | 36(17.82%) | 0.981 |
| No | 558(80.40%) | | 411 (80.27%) | | 165(82.09%) | 166(82.18%) |
TNM stage | I | - | | 110(21.48%) | | | - | 49(24.26%) | |
| II | - | | 402(78.52%) | | | - | 153(75.74%) | |
T stage | T1-2 | - | | 110(21.48%) | | | - | 52(25.74%) | |
| T3-4 | - | | 402(78.52%) | | | - | 150(74.26%) | |
Differentiation | G1-2 | - | | 488(95.31%) | | | - | - | |
| G3-4 | - | | 24(4.69%) | | | - | - | |
Radical surgery | Yes | - | | 512(100%) | | | - | 202(100%) | |
Chemotherapy | Yes | - | | 382(74.61%) | | | - | 118(58.42%) | |
No | - | | 130(25.39%) | | | - | 84(41.58%) | |
CEA (>5ng/mL) | <5 | 676(97.41%) | | 389(75.98%) | <0.001 | | 198(98.51%) | 145(71.78%) | <0.001 |
≥5 | 18(2.59%) | | 123(24.02%) | | 3(1.49%) | 57(28.22%) |
CA199 (>37U/mL) | <37 | 657(94.67%) | | 442(86.33%) | <0.001 | | 197(98.01%) | 176(87.13%) | <0.001 |
≥37 | 37(5.33%) | | 70(13.67%) | | 4(1.99%) | 26(12.87%) |
Fib (g/L) | | 2.45(2.10-2.81) | | 3.05(2.55-3.60) | <0.001 | | 2.51(2.18-2.99) | 3.07(2.54-3.83) | <0.001 |
Alb(g/L) | | 42.00(39.74-44.10) | | 40.68(38.50-42.64) | <0.001 | | 41.73(39.72-44.13) | 40.72(37.79-43.63) | <0.001 |
preAlb (mg/L) | | 261.72(218.74-305.10) | | 210.73(168.60-259.22) | <0.001 | | 246.26(197.07-287.97) | 181.40(135.45-229.21) | <0.001 |
AFR | | 17.11(14.87-20.02) | | 13.26(10.98-15.86) | <0.001 | | 16.37(14.37-19.39) | 13.40(10.09-16.13) | <0.001 |
FPR | | 9.54(7.68-11.72) | | 14.50(10.87-19.11) | <0.001 | | 10.72(8.34-13.75) | 17.05(12.12-26.41) | <0.001 |
Abbreviation and note: CRC: colorectal cancer; colorectal benign polyps include colorectal non-neoplastic and adenomatous polyps; Fib: Fibrinogen; Alb: albumin; pAlb: pre-albumin; FPR=Fib/pAlb ×1000; AFR=Alb/Fib; distribution differences of gender, age, smoking, drinking, diabetes, hypertension, CEA, CA199 between the groups were tested by Chi-square test; Fib, Alb, pAlb, AFR, FPR differences between groups were tested by rank sum test. |
Among the colorectal non-neoplastic and adenomatous polyp subgroups, there were differences observed in circulating FPR (p<0.05) and AFR (p>0.05) in the discovery cohort (Figure 2A-B). Circulating FPR was significantly lower in patients with adenomatous polyps than in those with hyperplastic polyps (p<0.05) (Figure 2C). However, there was no difference in FPR between the inflammatory and hyperplastic polyp subgroups (Figure 2C). The AUCs of FPR, AFR, CEA, and CA19-9 for discriminating colorectal non-neoplastic and adenomatous polyps were 0.576, 0.549, 0.507, and 0.528, respectively (Table 2). Circulating AFR gradually decreased from colorectal adenoma to stage I and stage II CRC subgroups, and a significant difference in AFR was observed in patients with colorectal benign polyps patients and early-stage CRC (Figure 2D). In contrast, circulating FPR was gradually increased in these subgroups (Figure 2E), and a significantly higher FPR was also observed in early-stage CRC than in colorectal benign polyps group (Figure 2F). In early-stage CRC, a significantly higher FPR was observed in the T3-4 subgroup than that in the T1-2 patients; however, no difference in FPR was observed in the comparisons of T1 vs. T2, T3 vs. T4 (Figure 2G) or in subgroups stratified by histological differentiation (Figure 2H).
Table 2
The diagnostic efficacy of preoperative FPR, AFR,CEA,CA199, and FPR combined with CEA and CA199 in patients with colorectal non-neoplastic polyps, adenomas, and early-stage colorectal cancer in discovery and validation cohorts and overall population.
Comparison | Biomarkers | | Cut-off value | | AUC | | Sensitivity (%) | | Specificity (%) | | PPV (%) | | NPV (%) | | Youden’s index |
Discovery cohort | Non-neoplastic polyps vs. adnomas | FPR | | 6.17 | | 0.576 | | 91.10% | | 14.20% | | 78.70% | | 31.40% | | 0.053 |
AFR | | 22.69 | | 0.549 | | 12.90% | | 87.10% | | 77.78% | | 77.65% | | 0.027 |
CEA | | 1.245 | | 0.507 | | 57.80% | | 48.10% | | 23.59% | | 80.48% | | 0.059 |
CA199 | | 8.165 | | 0.528 | | 70.40% | | 38.80% | | 80.60% | | 26.63% | | 0.095 |
Adnomas vs. early-stage CRC | FPR | | 11.73 | | 0.818 | | 70.60% | | 79.70% | | 80.37% | | 69.67% | | 0.503 |
AFR | | 14.90 | | 0.767 | | 76.10% | | 66.90% | | 66.11% | | 76.74% | | 0.430 |
CEA | | 1.895 | | 0.711 | | 63.80% | | 68.30% | | 70.38% | | 61.58% | | 0.321 |
CA199 | | 16.895 | | 0.577 | | 41.60% | | 73.30% | | 64.67% | | 51.60% | | 0.149 |
CEA+FPR | | 0.63 | | 0.858 | | 67.10% | | 90.90% | | 89.70% | | 70.11% | | 0.580 |
CEA+CA199+FPR | | 0.62 | | 0.858 | | 67.10% | | 90.70% | | 89.46% | | 70.06% | | 0.578 |
Colorectal benign polyps vs. early-stage CRC | FPR | | 12.47 | | 0.792 | | 65.10% | | 81.30% | | 72.25% | | 71.62% | | 0.464 |
AFR | | 14.90 | | 0.754 | | 75.50% | | 33.10% | | 54.98% | | 55.44% | | 0.424 |
CEA | | 1.875 | | 0.711 | | 63.80% | | 69.40% | | 65.83% | | 67.51% | | 0.332 |
CA199 | | 16.86 | | 0.582 | | 41.80% | | 73.60% | | 59.88% | | 57.86% | | 0.154 |
CEA+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.835 | | 68.30% | | 83.40% | | 79.11% | | 74.04% | | 0.525 |
CEA+CA199+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.835 | | 68.60% | | 83.90% | | 79.72% | | 74.30% | | 0.525 |
Validation cohort | Colorectal benign polyps vs. early-stage CRC | FPR | | 12.47 | | 0.759 | | 72.30% | | 68.20% | | 69.52% | | 79.98% | | 0.405 |
AFR | | 14.90 | | 0.703 | | 70.60% | | 65.30% | | 67.14% | | 68.95% | | 0.359 |
CEA | | 1.875 | | 0.702 | | 58.90% | | 68.20% | | 65.03% | | 62.27% | | 0.271 |
CA199 | | 16.86 | | 0.579 | | 43.60% | | 73.10% | | 61.97% | | 56.32% | | 0.167 |
CEA+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.823 | | 61.90% | | 83.60% | | 79.11% | | 68.57% | | 0.455 |
CEA+CA199+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.823 | | 61.90% | | 83.60% | | 79.11% | | 68.57% | | 0.455 |
Overall population | Colorectal benign polyps vs. early-stage CRC | FPR | | 12.47 | | 0.780 | | 67.20% | | 77.80% | | 69.08% | | 76.27% | | 0.450 |
AFR | | 14.90 | | 0.742 | | 74.00% | | 66.40% | | 60.97% | | 75.70% | | 0.404 |
CEA | | 1.875 | | 0.709 | | 62.40% | | 68.40% | | 59.29% | | 71.12% | | 0.308 |
CA199 | | 16.86 | | 0.580 | | 42.20% | | 73.50% | | 29.75% | | 38.33% | | 0.157 |
CEA+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.829 | | 63.20% | | 86.00% | | 76.96% | | 76.81% | | 0.492 |
CEA+CA199+FPR | | 0.50 | | 0.828 | | 64.00% | | 85.70% | | 76.05% | | 76.38% | | 0.497 |
Abbreviation and note: CRC: colorectal cancer; colorectal benign polyps include colorectal non-neoplastic and adenomatous polyps; Fib: Fibrinogen; Alb: albumin; pAlb: pre-albumin; FPR=Fib/pAlb ×1000; AFR=Alb/Fib; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; AUC: area under curve. |
In the discovery cohort, the AUCs of FPR, AFR, CEA, and CA19-9 were 0.818, 0.767, 0.711, and 0.577 for the differential diagnosis of early-stage CRC and colorectal adenomas polyps, respectively (Table 2). The Sen and Spe of FPR (cut-off=11.73, Sen=70.60%, Spe=79.70%) and AFR (cut-off=14.90, Sen=76.10%, Spe=66.90%) were better than those of CEA and CA19-9, respectively (Table 2). In discriminating CRC from colorectal benign polyps, the AUCs, Sen, and Spe were 0.792, 65.10% and 81.30%, for FPR, respectively, and 0.754, 75.50%, and 33.10% for AFR, respectively, and their AUCs were superior to CEA and CA19-9, respectively (Figure 3A and Table 2). Circulating AFR was negatively correlated with FPR in the overall population (Figure 2I). We selected FPR, CEA, and CA19-9 to evaluate the combined diagnostic efficacy in discriminating colorectal adenoma polyps and early-stage CRC. We observed that AUCs, Sen, and Spe of the combined CEA-FPR were 0.858, 67.10%, and 90.90%, respectively, which was similar to the combined CEA-CA19-9-FPR (Table 2). In colorectal benign polyps and early-stage CRC subgroups, the AUCs of the combined CEA-FPR and CEA-FPR-CA19-9 were 0.835 and 0.835, respectively, and their Sen were 68.30% and 68.60%, respectively, with Spe of 83.40% and 83.90%, respectively (Figure 3B and Table 2).
In the validation cohort, the AUC of FPR was significantly higher than that of AFR, CEA, and CA19-9 in diagnosing early-stage CRC from colorectal benign polyps (all p<0.01) (Figure 3C). The AUCs of FPR-CEA and FPR-CEA-CA19-9 were similar and were effectively improved compared to the single FPR (0.823 vs. 0.759, p<0.01) (Figure 3D and Table 2). AUC, Sen, Spe, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and Youden’s index of FPR were 0.780, 67.20%, 77.80%, 69.08%, 76.27%, and 0.450 for the diagnosis of early-stage CRC and colorectal benign polyps, respectively, which were better than the other single biomarkers in the overall population (Figure 3E and Table 2). The diagnostic efficacy of combined FPR and CEA was similar to that of FPR-CEA-CA19-9; however, the AUCs of combined FPR-CEA (0.829 vs. 0.780, p=0.011) and FPR-CEA-CA199 were significantly higher than those of FPR in the overall population (Figure 3F and Table 2).
According to the criteria of clinical high/low-risk patients, we divided the patients into clinical high- (572 cases) and low-risk (32 cases) groups. Although the recurrence rate in the non-CT-treated patients was higher than in CT-treated patients in clinical high-(21.79% vs. 15.73%, p=0.211) and low-risk (21.79% vs. 12.50%, p=0.512) subgroups, no statistical difference was observed between them (Figure 4A). Similarly, there was also no difference in the comparison of death rates between CT-treated and non-CT-treated high-risk patients and low-risk cases (15.38% vs. 8.75% vs. 5.88%, p=0.234) (Figure 4B). Furthermore, no survival (RFS and OS) differences were observed between them in the two subgroups (Figure 4C-D).
According to the cut-off value of FPR, stage II patients were classified into high-FPR (H-FPR) and low-FPR (L-FPR) subgroups. RFS and OS were shorter in H-FPR patients than in L-FPR patients in clinical CT-treated (plog−rank=0.006 for RFS, plog−rank=0.001 for OS) and non-CT-treated (plog−rank=0.015 for RFS, plog−rank=0.002 for OS) high-risk subgroups with the stage II disease (Figure 4E-H). However, no survival difference was observed between the clinical low-risk subgroup and high-risk patients with L-FPR regardless of treatment with CT (Figure 4E-H).
Clinical low-risk patients and non-CT-treated clinical high-risk patients with H-FPR harbored the highest recurrence rate (33.33%), while L-FPR patients with clinical high-relapse risk had the lowest recurrence rate regardless of treatment with CT (10.26% for non-CT treated patients; 10.53% for CT treated patients) (Figure 4I). In the clinical high-risk subgroup, the recurrence rate in H-FPR patients treated with CT was significantly lower than that in the non-CT-treated patients (22.61% vs. 33.33%, p<0.001), but was significantly higher than that in L-FPR patients treated with CT (22.61% vs. 10.53%, p<0.001) (Figure 4I). The lowest and highest death rates were observed in CT-treated high-risk patients with L-FPR (3.97%) and H-FPR patients with clinical low-risk (28.57%) and CT-treated H-FPR patients with clinical high-risk (30.77%) (Figure 4J). The death rate of CT-treated clinical high-risk patients with H-FPR was significantly lower than that of non-CT-treated clinical high-risk patients with H-FPR (15.18% vs. 30.77%, p<0.001) and clinical low-risk patients with H-FPR (15.18% vs. 28.57%, p<0.001) (Figure 4J). Additionally, the efficacy of FPR and common clinical characteristics predicted that the 3-years RFS and OS were 0.637 and 0.511, and 0.719 and 0.501, respectively. The AUC of FPR was significantly higher than clinical characteristics in predicting the prognosis (Figure 4K-L).
In patients with stage I CRC, the recurrence rate was only 3.85% in patients with L-FPR (≤15), and no deaths were observed in the two subgroups. In H-FPR (>15) patients, recurrence (18.18%) and death (15.15%) were observed at the 3-year follow-up. A significantly higher FPR was also observed in recurrence and death cases compared to non-recurrence and non-death cases (all p<0.01) in stage I CRC patients, respectively (Figure 5A-B). In H-FPR stage II CRC patients, recurrence and death rates of CT-treated patients with FPR>20, and non-CT treated patients with 20≥FPR>16.5 or FPR≥20 were 31.16% and 21.88%, 33.30% and 35.71%, 30.70% and 26.82%, respectively, and no difference was observed between them. However, the recurrence and death rates of CT-treated patients with 20≥FPR>15, L-FPR patients (≤15) with or without CT were 6.77% and 7.41%, 10.00% and 3.77%, and 9.76%, respectively, and the rates were significantly lower than those of CT-treated patients with FPR>20, and non-CT treated patients with 20≥FPR>15 or FPR>20 (Figure 5C-D).