Pakistan is the fourth-largest cotton producer in the world and Asia's third-largest spinning potential (after China and India) with thousands of ginning and spinning cotton textile mills. Estimated 1.5 million cotton-dependent smallholders (BCI, 2019). Cotton (Gossypium: Hirsutum), called "White Gold," is a significant source of economic viability of non-food cash crops and plays an important role in economic development. It is the largest source of raw materials for the basic agricultural textile industry. Pakistan is the world's fifth largest producer, fourth largest consumer, fourth largest fiber and third largest raw cotton exporter. Cotton provides 45% of labor employment and 60% of foreign exchange income, and it occupies more than 1.5 million agricultural households that contribute to the country’s exports in the form of raw cotton, yarn cotton and other by-products. The share of cotton crops in GDP is 1.0%, and its share in agricultural value-added is 5.5% (GOP, 2018).
Cotton production is an increasing number of diseases and insect attacks in Pakistan. Due to their inability to accept any financial risk, Pakistan's small farms are particularly susceptible to pests and diseases. Pesticides, which account for 33 percent of cotton production expenses, are critical inputs (Sarangdhar and Pawar, 2017). Cultivation of Bacillus thorionensis (Bt) cotton is resistant to common cotton bollworm pests and is regarded as the solution to recent challenges associated with the cotton bollworm.
Bt cotton badge incorporates the gene for soil bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis. This gene contains a natural toxin to many insects and pests, particularly bollworm pest. His backers also claim that using such cotton seed will reduce pesticide use and, in effect, have significant environmental effects. It indicates that countries such as the United States, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, South Africa and India, which allowed commercial cultivation of Bt cotton products, have lower pesticide consumption and costs in terms of success and profits (Fitt, 2003; Kranthi and Stone, 2020; Luttrell and Jackson, 2012; Nava-Camberos et al., 2019; Qiao et al., 2017). Nevertheless, experiments indicate Bt cotton adopters overuse pesticides (Gong et al., 2016; Liu and Huang, 2013). It relates particularly to smallholders whose livelihoods are primarily dependent on cotton income.
Given the growing importance of Bt cotton to developing countries economies, particularly Pakistan's cotton planting system, our research tries to address three questions. (A) Will the use of Bt cotton minimize the use of pesticides in cotton production? (B) Are the costs and disadvantages of Bt cotton consumers greater than those of non-Bt cotton consumers? (C) Are fertilizer, labor and irrigation water input costs for Bt cotton higher than non-Bt cotton? This research aims to determine the average effect of adoption on growth, expense, and benefit.
(Gossypium: Hirsutum) cotton is a world’s foremost fiber, along with natural crop covering one of the world's largest textile industries carry out yearly fiscal impact of at least $600 billion worldwide (Ashraf et al., 2018). Cotton is grown more than one hundred countries in the world, it’s estimated that more than one hundred million farmers produce in the world, China, USA, India, Pakistan and Brazil are the top producing countries. Cotton production in Pakistan's marketing year 2018/19 to 2019/20 is estimated at 8.0 million 480 pounds bales, which will add 500,000 bales to the revised valuation. Rabi and kharif are the two crop seasons in Pakistan; kharif crops include rice, sugarcane, cotton and maize, maize, maize. A crucial non-food kharif crop, cotton is India's principal source of foreign exchange profits, while agriculture is the country's backbone and it’s most important industry. Agriculture is directly responsible for 26 percent of the gross domestic product (Rehman et al., 2015). In global production Pakistan accounts for the fourth major share, forecast indicates in the future by 2027 Pakistan will produce 2.4 Mt of cotton. 1.4% annually Production will boost, as a result of area development and yield improvements. Similarly, Pakistan, India is estimated to realize more rapidly growth in the cotton area than in other crops (FAO, 2018). Cotton is usually developed in the two areas of Punjab and Sindh, with the previous representing for 74.7% and the latter for 24.6% of the nation's cotton growing land, it is moreover grown in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces. After China, India and the United States, as the world rankings have come to the forefront of 2017/18 Pakistan has won the fourth position, beating Brazil, Uzbekistan, Australia, Turkey, Argentina and Turkmenistan. The quantity of cotton produced in the country is important for economy growth; Pakistan's annual output has increased by 6.5+ million metric tons and has an area of 3.3 million hectares. During the kharif season, it covers 15% of Pakistan's cultivation in the land, during the monsoon months the kharif season is from May to August. Industrial crops are mainly cultivated in Punjab and Sindh. Since the demand for cotton is increasing especially in Bt cotton, its production in the country is also better as compared to past decades (RS News, 2018).
The negative impact of GM crops in developing countries remains a controversial issue. Although previous studies have tested the direct loss of productivity of Bt cotton and specific genetically modified crops, there is insufficient understanding of the general socioeconomic results (Subramanian and Qaim, 2010). This is of exceptional monetary value in the agricultural and industrial activities in Pakistan, the lives of hundreds of thousands of farmers depend on the cotton crop, and millions more are employed in cotton. In addition, cotton seeds account for 35% of the total edible oil production (Arshad et al., 2007). The quarterly of the crops worked correctly and showed an increase of 3.83 percent compared with the end of the year by 0.91 percent. The progress of sub-sectors, essential crops, different crops and ginning increased by 3.57%, 3.33% and 8.72% respectively, compared with 2.18%, -2.66% and 5.58% last year (GOP, 2018). However, cotton is an indispensable cash crop and a means of survival for the Pakistani textile industry. During the kharif period or the monsoons from April to June, cotton is grown on 15% of arable land. Two provinces were identified: Punjab is almost 75%, and Sindh is about 25%. Typically, cotton is produced by small-scale farmers cultivating less than 5 hectares of land, an expected that 1.6 million farmers grow cotton (USDA, 2019).
However, cotton crop production an important role in the economy of Pakistan because it contributes to foreign exchange reserves and the livelihood of the poor. Cotton is grown in 70 countries. The cotton-producing countries in Asia include Pakistan, China and India, but China is the world's biggest cotton producer. The world's cotton is produced by only four countries: China, the United States, India, and Pakistan. Chinese cotton production is 25% more than that of the United States, India, and Pakistan. About two-thirds of cotton used in three countries: China, India and Pakistan, accounting for 35%, 15% and 10%, respectively (Sabir et al., 2011). Now, any developed and developing country in the world has extensively planted it on an area of 7.2 million hectares on a large scale, and these countries have achieved extraordinary results in reducing pesticides, insects, bollworms, fertilizers and increasing yield per acre are being verified (James, 2011). Compared with non-Bt cotton varieties, Bt cotton has significant monetary benefits. Researchers have shown that using Bt cotton can reduce pesticide poisoning, labor costs and pest damage. Therefore, the expansion of these areas can promote the prosperity of farmers (Ghafoor Awan et al., 2015). As well as, a large number of researchers have studied and found that use of Bt Cotton can reduce pesticide and labor costs (Bakhsh, 2017; Sharma and Summarwar, 2017; Wang and Fok, 2018; Zhang et al., 2020). According to developing evidence from a farm survey, the usage of genetically modified Bt cotton in rural areas has reduced insect pests, increased yields and increased farm profits. Both China and India have high-quality Bt cotton varieties. However, in the past decade, no matter what administrative and research work has been done, Pakistan will no longer commercially approve any genetically modified cotton varieties until 2010. Extension of commercialization approval results in unregulated use of Bt cotton varieties in Pakistan (Abid et al., 2011). Cotton production in Pakistan depends on the production of competing crops, fertilizer costs and arable land area. Unfortunately, advertising in Pakistan collapsed. Unfortunately, advertising and marketing in Pakistan collapsed (Carpio and Ramirez, 2002). Effective promotion can stimulate cotton production at the farm level and provide some quality. In addition, more education, finance and improved vehicles can increase manufacturers' market participation. In addition, broader education, finance, and more transportation opportunities can further increase producers' participation in the market (Ali et al., 2017). In addition, education for producers, safe methods for plants, and the use of fertilizers and resources contributed toward expanded production of cotton (Ashraf et al., 2018).
Adoption of Bt cotton and its impact: an overview
Other countries use the estimated percent difference in the production and cost of Bt and non-Bt cotton. They provided a preliminary overview of the effects of Bt cotton in China, using field trials data supplemented by a general equilibrium model (Cabanilla et al., 2005). The cultivation costs of Bt cotton crops are considerably higher than non-Bt crops. Contrary to the Badge Company's claim, Bt Cotton did not reduce pesticide consumption. In fact, farmers who cultivated Bt cotton were spending more because of pesticides. However, found that the production capacity in Bt cotton is much higher than for non-Bt cotton varieties. In addition to cost efficiency, profit per hectare was also found in people who cultivated Bt cotton. Bt cotton variety have led to the need introduce different policies to maintain and improve indices of Bt cotton cultivation in India (Narayanamoorthy and Kalamkar, 2006).
The first genetically modified seeds used in developed countries are expensive. However, in recent years, Bt cotton seeds are widely used in developing countries. The main reason for this is that Bt cotton has many distinct private benefits. Investigated by Huang et al. (2002) (Bennett et al., 2004); Qaim and Zilberman (2003) and Pray et al. (2002) recommended to use Bt cotton is believed to reduce pesticide spraying and increase seed costs and yield. The evidence provided suggests that planting Bt cotton not only reduces the spread of insecticide against cotton bollworm, but also reduces the number of cotton pests on other crops.
This study examines at the benefits of using Bt cottonseed in Sindh. This study uses a simplified form of a panel model to determine the average short-term impact of Bt cotton technology profit, yield and agricultural resources. Studies show that farmers increase Bt cotton due to the fact that it is resistant to infection with cotton seed moths and is more productive. On average, an economic assessment shows that farmers accepting Bt get 10 percent more crop per hectare, and reduce the use of pesticide by about 22 percent per hectare, use 8 percent irrigation per hectare as resulting in a change of 78% of the area cultivated area for Bt cotton (Bakhsh, 2013). Moreover, due to the low use of chemical pesticides at Bt cotton sites, significant health benefits in terms of high biodiversity of agricultural land and less severe pesticide poisoning and environmental benefits due to low pollution of soil and groundwater. Farmers themselves estimate the positive effects of $ 79 per acre, half of which is health and the other half are for improving the environment. The addition of an average gross profit increase of $ 204 leads to a cumulative gain of $ 283 per acre or $ 1.8 billion for the total area of cotton Bt in Pakistan (Kouser and Qaim, 2013).
However, the efficacy of Bt toxins is different depending on many technical limitations. In Pakistan, the proliferation of Bt cotton continues to occur despite weak regulatory systems and no seed quality control. There is really a problem with varieties sold for Bt. Only farmers' trust affects cotton yields in the traditional development model, which does not adequately handle Bt as damage reduction. Biophysical indicators have the greatest impact, and official approval is the weakest. Results are important for measuring exposure (Ma et al., 2017).
However, perceptions of Bt cotton are not always optimistic. Some studies show that Bt cotton did not significantly increase production and income, and hawks continue to grow (Hayee, 2004)( (Huang et al., 2002; Ismael et al., 2001). These studies have identified various failure factors for Bt cotton, including the lack of knowledge on the use of this technology, black market outbreaks of unimproved Bt cotton varieties, climate change and other disasters. Many concern about the effects of small farmers' incomes and the change of Bt cotton, and they may be compelled to buy all the seeds of the crop from foreign monopolies (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003). For example, comparison of Bt cotton varieties with local cotton varieties in Pakistan shows that small farmers use Bt cotton in anticipation of lower costs, but in reality they can afford higher costs due to higher seed prices and higher fertilizer requirements and irrigation (Ali and Abdulai, 2010; Nazli, 2010; Sheikh et al., 2008), which shows that the overall result of taking Bt cotton is positive for all types of farms, but to varying degrees.