From 2004 to 2005, the total number of deaths in the monitoring areas of China was 868484, with males and females accounting for 57.9% (502434) and 42.1% (366050), respectively. The death toll was 331521 in eastern China, 299406 in central China and 237557 in western China, accounting for 38.2%, 34.5% and 27.4% respectively[15]. In 2014, the total number of deaths in the monitoring areas increased to 1643,377, with males and females accounting for 58.7% (965,261) and 41.3% (678,116), respectively. Specifically, the death toll was 656,709 in eastern China, 565,285 in central China and 421,383 in western China, accounting for 40.0%, 34.4% and 25.6%, respectively[2].
Using cerebrovascular diseases as an example, based on the life table method the LDP of cerebrovascular diseases in 2014 was 23.7% (Table1). Similarly, the LPDs in 2014 for heart diseases, respiratory diseases, malignant tumor, “injury and poisoning” were 24.4%, 19.2%, 15.5%, and 5.3%, respectively (Table 3).
As shown in Table 2, malignant tumor had the highest mortality rate during 2004-2005 in China, followed by cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, respiratory disease, and ‘injury and poisoning’. However, in terms of lifetime death probability, the priority pattern is totally different. During the same period, the most likely cause of death for Chinese residents in a lifetime was cerebrovascular disease (24.7%), followed by respiratory disease (19.4%), malignant tumor (18.7%), heart disease (17.1%), and ‘injury and poisoning’ (6.5%). Similarly, the discrepancies between mortality rate and LDP in the measurement of the top five causes of death were also observed in 2014. Compared to 2004-2005, the priority pattern by mortality rate for the 5 leading causes of death remained unchanged in 2014 (Table 3). Nevertheless, the most likely cause of death for a lifetime has changed from cerebrovascular disease in 2004-2005 to heart disease in 2014. Specifically, during the 10-year period the LDPs for heart disease and malignant tumor have increased by 7.3% and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, lifetime death probabilities due to respiratory disease, ‘injury and poisoning’, and cerebrovascular disease decreased by 3.9%, 1.3%, and 1.0%, respectively.
We also observed discrepancies between mortality rate and LDP in the measurement of the top five causes of death at a regional level. In the eastern region, malignant tumor was the most prevalent cause of death during the two periods, while causes with the highest lifetime death probability were cerebrovascular disease in 2004-2005 and heart disease in 2014. In the western region, the most prevalent cause of death (namely, mortality rate) has changed from respiratory disease in 2004-2005 to malignant tumor in 2014. However, in terms of lifetime death probability, the most significant cause of death was cerebrovascular disease in 2014. Differing from the eastern and western regions, priority patterns identified using the two metrics were consistent in the central region. Among the five leading causes of death, mortality rate and LDP for cerebrovascular and heart diseases were relatively higher in the central region than that in the other two regions during the two periods. For malignant tumor, relatively higher mortality rate and LDP were observed in the eastern region. As to respiratory disease and ‘injury and poisoning’, they were more likely to be the cause of death in the western region than other two regions.